Independence - how would you vote?

[Lex]

Disappointed that Lex seems to have disappeared. At least I've had the excuse of the power cut we've had for the last couple of hours in our "better together" Argyll & Bute Unionist nirvana hotspot.

Wonder what's going on in Renfrewshire to delay his response?

Sorry pal, been working all night, I didn't know you were waiting for me. Sorry for repeated response aswell can't work multi quote on the app.

5/1 anyone? It's still open, don't all rush in at once now.

[Lex]

Team: St. Mirren

Quelle surprise.

You used to be good on this thread, now you're rubbish

Much prefer these new guys

[xbl]

You used to be good on this thread, now you're rubbish

Much prefer these new guys

And you're exactly as you were. A St. Mirren supporter, a liar, and a unionist.

[Lex]

And you're exactly as you were. A St. Mirren supporter, a liar, and a unionist.

Oo do enlighten me as to how I am a liar, very proud to be the other two though.

[xbl]

Oo do enlighten me as to how I am a liar, very proud to be the other two though.

Every post you make on this issue is fundamentally dishonest. It is impossible for anyone to really be that stupid and contradictory. Therefore you are a liar, as the alternative is that you are genuinely that stupid.

[Lex]

Every post you make on this issue is fundamentally dishonest. It is impossible for anyone to really be that stupid and contradictory. Therefore you are a liar, as the alternative is that you are genuinely that stupid.

So you've called me a liar, I've asked you to show me how, and you've went on the above tear stained rant that proves and says nothing. I understand that we come from different sides of the spectrum on this debate, and I understand you know that your side is going to lose, but there is no need to conduct yourself so poorly. Practice being gracious in the face of impending defeat, it will serve you well next year.

Show me how I am liar, with direct dated quotes and clear irrefutable evidence. Either that or withdraw your accusation and crawl back under your rock.

[xbl]

I already said. Everything you post on this thread is dishonest. Every single thing. Either that or you genuinely arw that stupid.

[Lex]

I already said. Everything you post on this thread is dishonest. Every single thing. Either that or you genuinely arw that stupid.

Talk about squirming and climbing down. First I was a liar, now I am a liar or stupid. When asked for specific examples the best you can come up with is 'everything you say' is dishonest - ergo I can't come up with anything specific because my accusation was totally baseless. Post two things I've said side by side and show the thread how I am being dishonest. Put up or shut up.

I think you should stick to your ' team: St Mirren ' patter pal, you're hopelessly out your depth when you say anything further.

[Baxter Parp]

Why is it then? I've got plenty of people telling me why it's not, but I've got no one telling me why it is.

Can someone please tell me why the over 55's are so pro union? It's got absolutely NOTHING to do with the war or growing up in a post war society apparently.

I would finish the post with an insult, but unlike you, I'm above personally abusing people online.

No you're not.

Older people are naturally more conservative than younger people, that much has been known for a very long time. However, my granddad lost his leg at Salerno and my Dad has always been staunch indy as is the rest of my family. They didn't fight for the union, they fought for their homes and their families.

[Lex]

No you're not.

Older people are naturally more conservative than younger people, that much has been known for a very long time. However, my granddad lost his leg at Salerno and my Dad has always been staunch indy as is the rest of my family. They didn't fight for the union, they fought for their homes and their families.

Conservatism means they're going to vote no? Liberalism means they're likely to vote yes? I know plenty of liberals voting yes and I know plenty of conservatives who are voting no. Do you have any basis or evidence for this claim?

Of course there are exceptions to every trend. For example not every single male football fan under 35 is voting yes - I'm an exception to that particular trend - hence the no vote being significantly outnumbered on this forum, where most users are male football fans under 35.

[ArabianKnight]

Oh dear, another rather hardline supporter of the union friend of mine has changed their mind and will be voting yes next year.

Incidentally out of the 400(ish) people on my facebook that to the best of my knowledge are eligible to vote next year only 4, yes 4, have "liked" any NO supporting page. As a caveat however about 40 have liked the various YES supporting pages.

In my expierence (online at least) there's a very small number of BetterTogether active supporters and a not much bigger section of Yes supporters. The BetterTogether supporters I do know very rarely express any kind of support for the union where as the Yes supporters regularly post or share things.

Now I know a very good cross section of society, my work and studies have led to me having a varied circle of friends and acquaintances (online and offline) and whilst hardly scientific I'm confident these numbers are a pretty good snapshot of what's happening in the lead up to the referendum.

My summary would be that there is only a very small number of core BetterTogether NO voters with a sizable, largely apathetic chunk of society being basically MEH voters. On the other side I see a chunk of noisy activists spreading the word as much as possible and certainly doing a lot of work in terms of online presecence.

Perhaps I've just stated the obvious and going over what other posters have already said but this is my take on it.

[Reynard]

Conservatism means they're going to vote no? Liberalism means they're likely to vote yes? I know plenty of liberals voting yes and I know plenty of conservatives who are voting no. Do you have any basis or evidence for this claim?

Of course there are exceptions to every trend. For example not every single male football fan under 35 is voting yes - I'm an exception to that particular trend - hence the no vote being significantly outnumbered on this forum, where most users are male football fans under 35.

And generally from deprived backgrounds. It is no cross section of society, thats a certainty.

[Reynard]

Oh dear, another rather hardline supporter of the union friend of mine has changed their mind and will be voting yes next year.

Incidentally out of the 400(ish) people on my facebook that to the best of my knowledge are eligible to vote next year only 4, yes 4, have "liked" any NO supporting page. As a caveat however about 40 have liked the various YES supporting pages.

In my expierence (online at least) there's a very small number of BetterTogether active supporters and a not much bigger section of Yes supporters. The BetterTogether supporters I do know very rarely express any kind of support for the union where as the Yes supporters regularly post or share things.

Now I know a very good cross section of society, my work and studies have led to me having a varied circle of friends and acquaintances (online and offline) and whilst hardly scientific I'm confident these numbers are a pretty good snapshot of what's happening in the lead up to the referendum.

My summary would be that there is only a very small number of core BetterTogether NO voters with a sizable, largely apathetic chunk of society being basically MEH voters. On the other side I see a chunk of noisy activists spreading the word as much as possible and certainly doing a lot of work in terms of online presecence.

Perhaps I've just stated the obvious and going over what other posters have already said but this is my take on it.

Aesop

Was he one of those ex SNP members, who then inexplicably, in the middle of a referendum campaign they are losing on independence, decide to join the Labour party and set up a Labour for independence movement from in the Labour party? Or was it another sort of hardliner unionist type?

[archie guevara]

Deprived backgrounds? We aren't all pipefitters.

[Reynard]

Deprived backgrounds? We aren't all pipefitters.

It generally our version of white trash that follow football. Its no surprise to see that poor folk and younger folk are more inclined to vote for the promised land.

If this was America this forum would all be jerking off about hotrod racing or monster trucks.

[Baxter Parp]

Conservatism means they're going to vote no?

Small c conservative, it's not party political. Resistant to change.

[Reynard]

Small c conservative, it's not party political. Resistant to change.

Is this why fat boy is at great pains to point out that f**k all is going to change? To try and reassure the vast majority of small c conservatives that will be voting no?

He's fucked anyway, they have watched him lie once to often already. Small c conservatives don't like being lied to by desperate politicians.

[archie guevara]

My take on the over 55s thing, as a 52 year old. They are inherently conservative with a small "c". They have lived through some strange times, like the Cold War, the late 1960s, the fuel shortages of the 1970s and the 1980s when our economy was turned upside down. They are frightened by the pace of life today and things they don't understand, like computers and smartphones. They just want to live out the rest of their lives without having to think too hard. If that thinking involves challenging beliefs that have been ingrained into them, then they don't want to know. They are a large proportion of the solid 36% No vote and from the point of view of the debate, are not worth considering, from either campaign's point of view.

[lichtgilphead]

That's another problem with the yes campaign. Nationwide the over 50's are hugely in favour of retention. They either fought in the war or their parents did, so the benefits of a strong UK has been drummed into them from birth.

The problem with this is that demographic votes in greater numbers than any other, the gray vote will have a 75%+ turn out in this referendum, far more than the under 50's.

First mention of over 50's on the thread (see below)

(1) Where to begin with this. Vast majority voting yes? Really? What percentage is vast majority? Wheres your data from? Why are yes getting humped in all the polls then when the SNP is a majority administration? Sadly for you and the yes campaign this has nothing to do with party politics, if it did you might have a chance. I might vote SNP in 2016 actually, they're quite clearly the best run party in Holyrood, as you've probably guessed though, I'm dead against independence.

(2) I've no idea why you keep banging on about the year people were born etc like its relevant to the point. The poll in March showed that 66% of over 55's (I noticed you changed it to over 50's for some reason) will vote no, whereas only 23% of those polled will vote yes. This puts no ahead by an astonishing 43% in this crucial demographic. Why is that?

(3) I think it has something to do with them growing up in a postwar society. Is your point that this is definitely not the case? That this had no impact whatsoever? If so, what do you think the reason is? Why are they so against independence?

1) Panelbase survey carried out this week - 88% of SNP supporters will vote yes

Current disloyal voter percentages (ie will vote against the party line in the referendum)

SNP: 12%

Labour: 14%

Lib Dem: 11%

Conservative: 4%

Where are your figures, Lex?

2) I gave figures for over 50's because your original ridiculous quote (see above) referred to over 50's. But you knew that, didn't you. You're just trying to deflect from the fact that your unsupported figures are nonsense.

3) I ask again - what's your definition of postwar? I'm over 50 and grew up in the era of hippies & flower power - not in post-war austerity & rationing.

(4) What's Holyrood got to do with anything?! You don't seem to be getting this election. It's a national referendum, the results will surely be able to be broken up however we want after it, council area, constituency area, town, city, county, street. If we break them into council areas,

(5) I'd be shocked if A+B wasn't right up there at the top of the no pile.

4) As the referendum is being run by the Scottish Government, I suspect that the results will be announced either by Holyrood region or by Holyrood seat. They won't be announced by street, as you appear to believe.

In real life, have you ever actually attended a count?

5) That's why the "Yes" stall was buzzing at the Islay, Campbeltown & Mid-Argyll Shows during the last fortnight? That's why better together didn't even scrape up enough supporters to attend?

[Lex]

Oh dear, another rather hardline supporter of the union friend of mine has changed their mind and will be voting yes next year.

Incidentally out of the 400(ish) people on my facebook that to the best of my knowledge are eligible to vote next year only 4, yes 4, have "liked" any NO supporting page. As a caveat however about 40 have liked the various YES supporting pages.

In my expierence (online at least) there's a very small number of BetterTogether active supporters and a not much bigger section of Yes supporters. The BetterTogether supporters I do know very rarely express any kind of support for the union where as the Yes supporters regularly post or share things.

Now I know a very good cross section of society, my work and studies have led to me having a varied circle of friends and acquaintances (online and offline) and whilst hardly scientific I'm confident these numbers are a pretty good snapshot of what's happening in the lead up to the referendum.

My summary would be that there is only a very small number of core BetterTogether NO voters with a sizable, largely apathetic chunk of society being basically MEH voters. On the other side I see a chunk of noisy activists spreading the word as much as possible and certainly doing a lot of work in terms of online presecence.

Perhaps I've just stated the obvious and going over what other posters have already said but this is my take on it.

You raise some very interesting points here, and ones I discussed earlier in my 'Bradley effect post'. There is no doubt that the yes campaign is far louder on every online platform, whereas the no voters tend to be a more silent majority.

I think the main reason for this is the aggressive style of 'debate' many yes campaigners employ. Look at the last three pages of this thread for example. I've been called an idiot twice, a dickhead once and a liar once. All for supporting the unionist cause. Luckily I have a strong enough character that this kind of abuse doesn't bother me, nor will it put me off supporting the no campaign in the online sphere, but it would put many people off.

This is why I think the results of the referendum will be far more favourable towards no than any poll shows. Many people are put off saying they are voting no in the public domain by the reaction they may get from militant yes campaigners. However, when they are in the privacy of the polling booth, when they think about the actual issues at hand, they will vote no. I bet there's plenty of people reading this right now nodding their head and thinking - yep, that's me alright.

I don't blame you for keeping schtum about your intentions to be fair, it's not easy being an open supporter of the better together campaign. All that matters is that you put the tick in the no box though, and most of us will.