Independence - how would you vote?

[H_B]

Standard margin of error in polling is 3%, so basically all those results are identical. Weird how Panelbase are suddenly the only pollsters who AREN'T credible now they've done a poll that isn't very favourable to the No side.

A myth has grown amonsgt the Nat clowns that Panelbase called it right in the lead up to the 2011 election, when all the others were predicting Labour triumphs.

As with most Nat claims, this is utter bollocks.

The reason Panelbase is derided in referendum polling is twofold :-

1) they are so massively out of line with every other independent polling company

2) They have a bizarre methodology that involves only polling those for referendum purposes who are "certain" to vote in the Scottish parliament. i.e. excluding those who think the SP is a complete waste of time akin to a council election

That said, even taking 1) and 2) into account, the Panelbase figures haven't been excluded from the overall determination. What they cannot be used for, is in isolation to claim a "4% swing is all that is required" as several Nat idiots have tried to do. Panelbase, despite their horribly flawed methodology , can be considered alongside IPSOS-MORI, TNS etc.

Glad to be of service.

[SpungoMcGoo]

The reason Panelbase is derided in referendum polling is twofold :-

1) they are so massively out of line with every other independent polling company

I love that you manage to post that literally MINUTES after listing 2011 polls that showed every company within 1% of each other.

Panelbase are not "massively" out of line with other companies. With standard margins, they're a couple of percent different. And others - like Ashcroft - have shown a (tiny) lead for Yes recently, so it's hardly inconceivable.

But hey, by all means continue with your complacency. It's working wonders.

[SpungoMcGoo]

34% of Scots think the national team should be abolished if we vote No:

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-last-home-international/

[H_B]

I love that you manage to post that literally MINUTES after listing 2011 polls that showed every company within 1% of each other.

Panelbase are not "massively" out of line with other companies. With standard margins, they're a couple of percent different. And others - like Ashcroft - have shown a (tiny) lead for Yes recently, so it's hardly inconceivable.

But hey, by all means continue with your complacency. It's working wonders.

You are an idiot.

These are the figures from 2011. They are not referendum figures. Panelbase were not derided in 2011. The figures from 2011 are relevant only to disprove the myht that Panelbase got it right then, when everyone else got it wrong, hence lending the company credence they do not deserve.

The Panelbase figures that are horribly out of line with every other independent polling company are the current 2013 referendum polling figures. There are massive differences between Panelbase and every other pollster.

Panelbase are the only one of these pollsters to exclude those who have no interest in voting in the Scottish elections. Note not the referendum, but the Scottish elections.

Do try to keep up.

[H_B]

And others - like Ashcroft - have shown a (tiny) lead for Yes recently, so it's hardly inconceivable.

Oh really?

Please provide these figures. This is an utter lie.

[Colkitto]

A myth has grown amonsgt the Nat clowns that Panelbase called it right in the lead up to the 2011 election, when all the others were predicting Labour triumphs.

As with most Nat claims, this is utter bollocks.

The reason Panelbase is derided in referendum polling is twofold :-

1) they are so massively out of line with every other independent polling company

2) They have a bizarre methodology that involves only polling those for referendum purposes who are "certain" to vote in the Scottish parliament. i.e. excluding those who think the SP is a complete waste of time akin to a council election

That said, even taking 1) and 2) into account, the Panelbase figures haven't been excluded from the overall determination. What they cannot be used for, is in isolation to claim a "4% swing is all that is required" as several Nat idiots have tried to do. Panelbase, despite their horribly flawed methodology , can be considered alongside IPSOS-MORI, TNS etc.

Glad to be of service.

Think you should have another wee look at the polling data and come back to us on that one again.....

[H_B]

Think you should have another wee look at the polling data and come back to us on that one again.....

Is that so?

Any polling data in particular you have in mind?

[SpungoMcGoo]

Oh really?

Please provide these figures. This is an utter lie.

Embarrassed for you:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-agree-that-scotland-should-be-an-independent-country-dont-knows-not-avai

[Granny Danger]

34% of Scots think the national team should be abolished if we vote No:

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-last-home-international/

I wonder how many of these are actually football fans. I'm not in the least bit interested in non-football-fans views on football in the same way that opera lovers should not be interested in my views on opera.

[Michael W]

34% of Scots think the national team should be abolished if we vote No:

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-last-home-international/

How many times did Deky vote in that poll?

I really don't see why the national team should be abolished if we vote against independence. Do the same people who think that believe we should be playing in a British team now? I sincerely doubt it. Seems like bitterness from people who are looking for any excuse to lash out at Scottish people in general if there's a 'No' vote.

[H_B]

Embarrassed for you:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-agree-that-scotland-should-be-an-independent-country-dont-knows-not-avai

Oh dear...

I'm embarrassed for you! Look at the second comment below these figures.. now look at this :-

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum

Third one down...

"An online snapshot of 1236 adults by the Tory fundraiser Lord Ashcroft today puts the anti-independence vote on 56% and the pro-independence vote on 30%."

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/blow-for-yes-camp-as-surveys-show-rising-support-for-union.21041904

Still, thanks for playing though...

[Colkitto]

Is that so?

Any polling data in particular you have in mind?

Panelbase had a poll in April 2011 which showed Labour on 37% In the same week TNS had Labour on 38% YouGov on 39%

Their polling was not massively different from other credible polling companies, so you cannot just write them off as being horribly out of line with other polling companies.

They are a credible polling organisation who have proved they can be as acurate as any other polling organisation figures.

In 2011 it took Ipsos Mori to the 21st April to get it anywhere near to resembling the actual result.

But you in your wisdom are saying the referendum is won with over a year to go because of the data from the same polling companies who got the polling predictions consistantly wrong right up to a month before polling day!

[H_B]

What a disaster of a contribution...

Are you Baxter Parp's slightly more yokelish cousin?

[H_B]

Panelbase had a poll in April 2011 which showed Labour on 37% In the same week TNS had Labour on 38% YouGov on 39%

Their polling was not massively different from other credible polling companies, so you cannot just write them off as being horribly out of line with other polling companies.

Sigh.

For at least the third time, the 2011 figures are only relevant when considering whether Panelbase had any more of an insight into Scottish voting intentions than the others did. It has been suggested previously that they did, hence they should be taken more seriously than the others this time. They did not. That's simply not true.

The reason they are derided in this referendum is because :-

a) they are miles out of line with every other independent pollster.

b) They are using an obviously flawed methodology.

Still, back to your earlier post - what other independent polling figures should I be looking at that tally with Panelbase?

[Colkitto]

Sigh.

For at least the third time, the 2011 figures are only relevant when considering whether Panelbase had any more of an insight into Scottish voting intentions than the others did. It has been suggested previously that they did, hence they should be taken more seriously than the others this time. They did not. That's simply not true.

The reason they are derided in this referendum is because :-

a) they are miles out of line with every other independent pollster.

b) They are using an obviously flawed methodology.

Still, back to your earlier post - what other independent polling figures should I be looking at that tally with Panelbase?

Are you talking about all the independent pollsters who got it consistantly wrong about the 2011 Holyrood election?

The independent pollsters who were widely off the mark just weeks before the election?

[Ad Lib]

I'm absolutely astonished* that Panelbase, polling those certain to vote in a Holyrood Election, called the percentages in the run up to the Holyrood elections roughly the same as other credible pollsters. Astonished* I say. How is that possible?

I am equally astonished* that they were calling a tie on a date comfortably after other pollsters put the SNP in the lead in the run-up to the Holyrood Election. Astonished* I say. We were told by those bold and always correct SNP acolytes that the other pollsters had scored a massive own goal in that election, but that Panelbase, with its pollster fist of fury, had broken ranks and called a glorious Nationalist landslide while kissing the feet of the triple S triumvirate. Are we now being told this was a fib? Count me astonished*.

Panelbase are a busted flush.

*Please note, I am not at all astonished.

[Ad Lib]

Are you talking about all the independent pollsters who got it consistantly wrong about the 2011 Holyrood election?

The independent pollsters who were widely off the mark just weeks before the election?

The independent pollsters who were less off the mark than Panelbase and who did an about-turn more quickly than Panelbase before the 2011 Holyrood Election, yes.

Your cognitive dissonance here is astonishing. The other pollsters are unreliable (even though Panelbase got roughly the same results at Holyrood to them), therefore we should distrust them and believe Panelbase about the independence referendum. There is absolutely no reason why we should believe Panelbase over the other pollsters. None whatsoever. Even a moderated aggregate of polls, including Panelbase, would conceivably be legitimate. But to go around shouting "4% SWING LOLOLOLOL MOMENTUM #WEGOTHIS #ILOVEPAULPATON" when only one solitary pollster has you there and their methodology is demonstrably flawed for the kind of poll we're actually going to have, AND, might we just remind ourselves again, that pollster shows that in the last 12 months there is precisely ZERO momentum for the Yes campaign, is clutching at some very worn straws.

[Colkitto]

I'm absolutely astonished* that Panelbase, polling those certain to vote in a Holyrood Election, called the percentages in the run up to the Holyrood elections roughly the same as other credible pollsters. Astonished* I say. How is that possible?

I am equally astonished* that they were calling a tie on a date comfortably after other pollsters put the SNP in the lead in the run-up to the Holyrood Election. Astonished* I say. We were told by those bold and always correct SNP acolytes that the other pollsters had scored a massive own goal in that election, but that Panelbase, with its pollster fist of fury, had broken ranks and called a glorious Nationalist landslide while kissing the feet of the triple S triumvirate. Are we now being told this was a fib? Count me astonished*.

Panelbase are a busted flush.

*Please note, I am not at all astonished.

Is Prof Curtice not on record as saying Panelbase is often more kinder to the SNP? Yet they didn't put the SNP ahead when other pollsters did....hmmnn

[Ad Lib]

Is Prof Curtice not on record as saying Panelbase is often more kinder to the SNP? Yet they didn't put the SNP ahead when other pollsters did....hmmnn

I have no idea what Professor John Curtice is on or off record saying. Nor do I care.

[H_B]

Are you talking about all the independent pollsters who got it consistantly wrong about the 2011 Holyrood election?

The independent pollsters who were widely off the mark just weeks before the election?

Including Panelbase!!!

IPSOS-MORI were the first pollsters to call an SNP victory in 2011, two months before Panelbase called it neck and neck.

Now, stop avoiding the question - you said I should look at the polling data before claiming that Panelbase are miles out of line with every other independent polling company - what polling data should I be looking at??