Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[aDONisSheep]

7 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

No

Blimey, who’d have thought Margaret Hodge lacked a sense of humour?

[aDONisSheep]

Fvck me, another day another Sir Kier abomination!  The kvnts, kvnt.

 

[Jedi2]

So, in one poll Ipsos the SNP could be on 49 seats at the GE, and in the other Redfield and Wilton they would be on 20, with Labour on 22...and both polls conducted around the same time. Wildly different outcomes.

[lichtgilphead]

5 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

So, in one poll Ipsos the SNP could be on 49 seats at the GE, and in the other Redfield and Wilton they would be on 20, with Labour on 22...and both polls conducted around the same time. Wildly different outcomes.

Just another consequence of the FPTP system so beloved of both Labour and the Tories - small variations in support can cause wild swings in number of seats won.

[Jedi2]

SNP support is at about 10% of a difference between the 2 polls though 

[lichtgilphead]

59 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

SNP support is at about 10% of a difference between the 2 polls though 

Yeah, that's true, but this difference in polling is magnified when you reach a tipping point in FPTP. The 10% potential drop in support results in a 50%+ loss of projected seats. 

[ICTChris]

8% of the Tory voters in the 2019 General Election are now dead.

 

 

[Freedom Farter]

50 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

8% of the Tory voters in the 2019 General Election are now dead.

 

 

They won't be getting replaced either. The evidence now all suggests that the "you get more right wing with age" maxim is bollocks. The boomer generation's voting habits were a product of unique macro economic changes (you can only sell off the family jewels once, the privatisation has all happened now).

(https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4)

[Brother Blades]

6 minutes ago, Freedom Farter said:

They won't be getting replaced either. The evidence now all suggests that the "you get more right wing with age" maxim is bollocks. The boomer generation's voting habits were a product of unique macro economic changes (you can only sell off the family jewels once, the privatisation has all happened now).

(https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4)

They can just vote Red Tory instead, no biggie. 

[HTG]

21 minutes ago, Brother Blades said:

They can just vote Red Tory instead, no biggie. 

Yup, Starmer is very easy on the eye for Tory voters who are not swivel-eyed fascists 

[sparky88]

6 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

They won't be getting replaced either. The evidence now all suggests that the "you get more right wing with age" maxim is bollocks. The boomer generation's voting habits were a product of unique macro economic changes (you can only sell off the family jewels once, the privatisation has all happened now).

(https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4)

Yes, we are witnessing the slow destruction of the Tory Party.

A recent poll put Tory support amongst 18-24 year olds at 1%. Obviously youger people lean left wing but this is extreme. I suspect Hamas are more popular than the Tories in this group, and that's not an exaggeration.

[Left Back]

10 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

They won't be getting replaced either. The evidence now all suggests that the "you get more right wing with age" maxim is bollocks. The boomer generation's voting habits were a product of unique macro economic changes (you can only sell off the family jewels once, the privatisation has all happened now).

(https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4)

I can’t be arsed looking it up but hasn’t the Tory party been in power/won significantly more elections during Labour’s existence than any other party?

That would suggest it’s more than the baby boomers that support them.

[lichtgilphead]

51 minutes ago, Left Back said:

I can’t be arsed looking it up but hasn’t the Tory party been in power/won significantly more elections during Labour’s existence than any other party?

That would suggest it’s more than the baby boomers that support them.

It also suggests that there's little point in voting Labour long term - the Tories will always get back into power in the next 2 or 3 elections, and both parties will continue their shift to the right,

[houston_bud]

1 hour ago, lichtgilphead said:

It also suggests that there's little point in voting Labour long term - the Tories will always get back into power in the next 2 or 3 elections, and both parties will continue their shift to the right,

So there's no point in voting for someone, because the others will get back into power at some point in the future?

Sorry, but that makes no sense. Vote for the party/candidate that closest aligns to your values, or that you think will do the best job, when each election comes around. There will always be cycles in politics. If everyone took that opinion then no one would vote.

Would you tell a left leaning American there's no point in voting Democrats in November as the Republicans will get back into power at some point?

I say all this as someone who is not particularly inspired by the current Labour Party. They are still infinitely preferable to the Conservative party.

[HTG]

8 hours ago, houston_bud said:

So there's no point in voting for someone, because the others will get back into power at some point in the future?

Sorry, but that makes no sense. Vote for the party/candidate that closest aligns to your values, or that you think will do the best job, when each election comes around. There will always be cycles in politics. If everyone took that opinion then no one would vote.

Would you tell a left leaning American there's no point in voting Democrats in November as the Republicans will get back into power at some point?

I say all this as someone who is not particularly inspired by the current Labour Party. They are still infinitely preferable to the Conservative party.

I think he's saying it in the context that Scotland as a country never votes Conservative as a majority party and that since 1955 we've been lumbered with a party we've not voted for on far more occasions than not. 

If Scotland had the opportunity to vote for one of 2 or 3 parties in the knowledge that the winner was the preferred selection of its people then the US analogy would work. 

Nothing changes for Scotland as a country until the process of England choosing who governs us changes. There is currently no democratic route for this to happen and there's an absolute refusal to set out how that route should look - just more wittering about generations and no attempt to define what a generation means despite 7 years being written into the (apparently)far more contentious Good Friday Agreement. 

It's easy to say that the SNP are taking us further away from independence but I'm not sure how they can take us closer if the UK refuses point blank to respond. You're left with UDI violence and a serious political party isn't going to advocate for either - as the UK govt knows.

Edited January 16 by HTG

[Left Back]

22 minutes ago, HTG said:

I think he's saying it in the context that Scotland as a country never votes Conservative as a majority party and that since 1955 we've been lumbered with a party we've not voted for on far more occasions than not. 

If Scotland had the opportunity to vote for one of 2 or 3 parties in the knowledge that the winner was the preferred selection of its people then the US analogy would work. 

Nothing changes for Scotland as a country until the process of England choosing who governs us changes. There is currently no democratic route for this to happen and there's an absolute refusal to set out how that route should look - just more wittering about generations and no attempt to define what a generation means despite 7 years being written into the (apparently)far more contentious Good Friday Agreement. 

It's easy to say that the SNP are taking us further away from independence but I'm not sure how they can take us closer if the UK refuses point blank to respond. You're left with UDI violence and a serious political party isn't going to advocate for either - as the UK govt knows.

The article talked about millennial voters in the UK and US, not Scotland and the US.

[Fullerene]

21 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

They won't be getting replaced either. The evidence now all suggests that the "you get more right wing with age" maxim is bollocks. The boomer generation's voting habits were a product of unique macro economic changes (you can only sell off the family jewels once, the privatisation has all happened now).

(https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4)

I think the idea was that when you are young and don't own anything, you are quite happy to shake up the world and vote for a radical candidate that offers to do that.  Later when you get older, get married, get a house and a car, you are happier with the status quo and start voting conservative.

Now with the cost of living crisis and the housing crisis and every other crisis, fewer people are getting to that comfortable stage and so they are less likely to vote conservative.  Maybe it was great buying your council house and now it is worth more.  Good luck trying to do that if you are renting from a private landlord.

[Fullerene]

8 hours ago, houston_bud said:

So there's no point in voting for someone, because the others will get back into power at some point in the future?

Sorry, but that makes no sense. Vote for the party/candidate that closest aligns to your values, or that you think will do the best job, when each election comes around. There will always be cycles in politics. If everyone took that opinion then no one would vote.

Would you tell a left leaning American there's no point in voting Democrats in November as the Republicans will get back into power at some point?

I say all this as someone who is not particularly inspired by the current Labour Party. They are still infinitely preferable to the Conservative party.

In the same way, it allows the most repulsive politicians to hide in plain sight by pretending they are all the same.

[houston_bud]

22 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

In the same way, it allows the most repulsive politicians to hide in plain sight by pretending they are all the same.

100%

[HTG]

1 hour ago, Left Back said:

The article talked about millennial voters in the UK and US, not Scotland and the US.

As may be but only England has an actual choice.