joozy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Ooops. Seem to have annoyed you. Instead of writing your pointless drivel you could have simply informed us that Ladbrokes are no longer offering the odds quoted. But no....you wanted to act all big and clever. Smug but pointless. So you admit you were talking nonsense? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 (edited) Well, i suppose when you completely invent quotes George Osborne didn't say, lie about it, then refuse to apologise for these lies, making up odds from Ladbrokes is just a small brick in your wall of mendacity. Edited February 23, 2014 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 So you admit you were talking nonsense? I admit that I was not up to date. But that entirely misses the point. Points and logic not being your strong suit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 (edited) I admit that I was not up to date. But that entirely misses the point. Points and logic not being your strong suit.Your point was what exactly? You tried comparing a total cock-up by Ladbrokes on a (as I said earlier) rather esoteric market with the odds offered by almost every bookie on the more straightforward yes/no market. There is no logical link between the two.Of course, none of this means the yes vote can't win. It just means that bookies think a no vote is c. 3x more likely. They just don't pluck these figures out of thin air - which is I suppose is a bit ironic as this seems to be how you operate. Edited February 23, 2014 by joozy 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Well, i suppose when you completely invent quotes George Osborne didn't say, lie about it, then refuse to apologise for these lies, making up odds from Ladbrokes is just a small brick in your wall of mendacity. Truly cringing for you. Every day you castigate yourself while others point and laugh. Still when you lie about Stiglitz advising the SNP pn Corp Tax, invent a story about Salmond googling a letter, create a complete falsehood about an SNP spokesman making a statement that was never made by a man that does not exist and then attempt to lie about YOUR OWN opinion that Osbourne is trusted by the Scottish electorae more than Sturgeon is then I supose you will jump on any little thing to deflect from your deceitfulness. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Your point was what exactly? You tried comparing a total cock-up by Ladbrokes on a (as I said earlier) rather esoteric market with the odds offered by almost every bookie on the more straightforward yes/no market. There is no logical link between the two. Of course, none of this means the yes vote can't win. It just means that bookies think a no vote is c. 3x more likely. They just don't pluck these figures out of thin air - which is I suppose a bit ironic as this seems to be how you operate. Incorrect. I compared odds offered by THE SAME bookie in order to illustrate the ridiculousness of using bookies odds as a means of arguing either one side or the other. Again you need to revise your use of the word esoteric. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 (edited) Incorrect. I compared odds offered by THE SAME bookie in order to illustrate the ridiculousness of using bookies odds as a means of arguing either one side or the other. Again you need to revise your use of the word esoteric. Sigh... one was a cock-up clearly signed-off by someone who didn't understand the market; one is a fairly bog-standard market offered by every single bookie. Even just by taking a quick glance at the two Ladbrokes offering, it's clear they're not comparable. That's why the former market was pulled with great haste.You can like it or not, but political betting markets provide a good guide into the likelihood of a particular outcome. Bookmakers on the whole price more efficiently and accurately than they ever have before. They're giving the yes campaign a c.20-25% chance of success. If you think they're pricing it totally wrong, lump on. Clearly, there hasn't been a great weight of money willing to do so thus far. Edited February 23, 2014 by joozy 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Truly cringing for you. Every day you castigate yourself while others point and laugh. Still when you lie about Stiglitz advising the SNP pn Corp Tax, invent a story about Salmond googling a letter, create a complete falsehood about an SNP spokesman making a statement that was never made by a man that does not exist and then attempt to lie about YOUR OWN opinion that Osbourne is trusted by the Scottish electorae more than Sturgeon is then I supose you will jump on any little thing to deflect from your deceitfulness. I can almost taste the seethe. And all because you have been exposed as a liar. Desperate stuff. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Sigh... one was a cock-up clearly signed-off by someone who didn't understand the market; one is a fairly bog-standard market offered by every single bookie. Even just by taking a quick glance at the two Ladbrokes offering, it's clear they're not comparable. That's why the former market was pulled with great haste. You can like it or not, but political betting markets provide a good guide into the likelihood of a particular outcome. Bookmakers on the whole price more efficiently and accurately than they ever have before. They're giving the yes campaign a c.20-25% chance of success. If you think they're pricing it totally wrong, lump on. Clearly, there hasn't been a great weight of money willing to do so thus far. Sigh. It took you half a dozen posts to make your point. Why didnt you simply say as much in your first one? Yawn. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I can almost taste the seethe. And all because you have been exposed as a liar. Desperate stuff. So you admit you lied about all those things? Ok good. Dismissed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 So you admit you lied about all those things? Ok good. Dismissed. You've never said exactly why you lied about what George Osborne said? I'm genuinely interested. Is it just that you are an inveterate liar, or was there a particular reason for this lie? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadasdillinger Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 My new blog article, 'Poll after poll returns YES vote', is now online at http://saoralba2014.blogspot.co.uk/Please read and share. (Seemed like the best thread for it) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apache Don Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 My new blog article, 'Poll after poll returns YES vote', is now online at http://saoralba2014.blogspot.co.uk/ Please read and share. (Seemed like the best thread for it) Cheers, uplifting read. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 You've never said exactly why you lied about what George Osborne said? I'm genuinely interested. Is it just that you are an inveterate liar, or was there a particular reason for this lie? Desperate stuff. perhaps you can explain why you lied about Stiglitz. Why did you lie about Salmond? Why did you invent a statement from Salmonds spokesman? Why did you invent the spokesman that said it? Do you have a compulsive nees to lie? How does your family and friends (friends...snigger) cope with it? Genuine question. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 (edited) Desperate stuff. perhaps you can explain why you lied about Stiglitz. Why did you lie about Salmond? Why did you invent a statement from Salmonds spokesman? Why did you invent the spokesman that said it? Do you have a compulsive nees to lie? How does your family and friends (friends...snigger) cope with it? Genuine question. I mean... it's not like you could get away with your Osborne lie - that was the most astonishing thing about it. It's like an episode of America's Dumbest Criminals. Lying about a speech people actually watched, and then frantically denying you lied, as if in a Scooby Doo way you would have got away with it if it wasn't for those pesky posters. Quite instructive. I mean nothing will match your House of Elderslie disaster if you post on here for 100 years, but this was pretty close. Edited February 23, 2014 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadasdillinger Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Cheers, uplifting read. Good stuff, that's the idea! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I mean... it's not like you could get away with your Osborne lie - that was the most astonishing thing about it. It's like an episode of America's Dumbest Criminals. Lying about a speech people actually watched, and then frantically denying you lied, as if in a Scooby Doo way you would have got away with it if it wasn't for those pesky posters. Quite instructive. I mean nothing will match your House of Elderslie disaster if you post on here for 100 years, but this was pretty close. Oooft. Really? Im literally turning red for you. I mean i know you like to run away from questions and I can tell being caught out eats away at you but this is seriously bad. So are you now going to admit that you lied about Stiglitz? Are you going to admit that you lied about Salmond googling a letter? Are you going to admit that you lied about Salmonds spokesman who explained the googled letter? Are you now going to admit that you lied about the very existence of the above spokesman? No idea what this Elderslie thing is, probably another fabrication from you. Mind that time you claimed that Stiglitz officially advised Salmond via Lamont at FMQ's.....hahahaha. Even AdLib called you out in that one. I would say that was your biggest lie but I know you can top it. I believe. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 So, is it just an inveterate thing? You know, that you can't help lying? If it is, i'll cut you a lot more slack. Did you actually think people would believe you about Osborne without checking? I think that's optimistic, given yuor penchant for copying and pasting from bad websites. What did you hope to gain out of your lies though? That's possibly the most interesting aspect. Why did yuo do it? And why haven't you just come clean and said "Look, I apologise - I know Osborne said nothing of the sort - I completely fabricated it and hoped no one would notice". If yuo did that I'd have a lot more respect for you. Still very little respect in the great scheme of things, but a lot more than I have at present. At least think about it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Good stuff, that's the idea! With the greatest respect, comparing polls conducted on various football fora and those taken at student debates with the ones done by the likes of Gallup etc is not really valid. Professional polling companies attempt (or, they should at least), ensure that they try to conduct a poll with a sample which is as representative of the population as a whole as possible. When you have self-selecting surveys like those on here, then it's going to be those with the strongest motivation and interest who look to reply. As far as I'm aware, in the case of most referenda like this it is usually the side looking to break from the status quo who have more of this type of supporter. I could take a survey of the Edinburgh investment community (where I work), and I'd reckon that a no vote would carry the day by a proportion of around 4 to 1. But then, this also wouldn't be representative of the wider community either. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 With the greatest respect, comparing polls conducted on various football fora and those taken at student debates with the ones done by the likes of Gallup etc is not really valid. Professional polling companies attempt (or, they should at least), ensure that they try to conduct a poll with a sample which is as representative of the population as a whole as possible. When you have self-selecting surveys like those on here, then it's going to be those with the strongest motivation and interest who look to reply. As far as I'm aware, in the case of most referenda like this it is usually the side looking to break from the status quo who have more of this type of supporter. I could take a survey of the Edinburgh investment community (where I work), and I'd reckon that a no vote would carry the day by a proportion of around 4 to 1. But then, this also wouldn't be representative of the wider community either. More importantly also, many of the voters in these polls aren't eligible to vote, due to either being too young, or registered as aliases. Take the Perthshire weirdo on here for example - no idea how many times he's voted in "our" Independence referendum thread. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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