Jamaldo Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 More importantly also, many of the voters in these polls aren't eligible to vote, due to either being too young, or registered as aliases. Take the Perthshire weirdo on here for example - no idea how many times he's voted in "our" Independence referendum thread. Cringeworthy straw-clutching there. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I see there is a new ICM poll today for the SoS, showing a move to No. Must have slipped the minds of our more diligent Nat poll watchers to post this up. http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371 "Support for a No vote has climbed five points to 49 per cent in the space of a month and now enjoys a 12-point gap over the pro-independence side, which is unchanged on 37 per cent. It suggests a significant number of undecideds have shifted to No" This data was gathered after Osborne's speech. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 If yuo did that I'd have a lot more respect for you. Still very little respect in the great scheme of things, but a lot more than I have at present.Wow. The seethe is strong with you. Meltdown imminent. Not sure why you think I would require the respect such as yourself......you know a compulsive liar...and a coward. Is your cowardice something that has caused you problems on your real life, you know like making fabricated statements then just running away. Even your fellow NO voters are disowning you. You must be feeling lonely. Did you think you could get away with lying about Stiglitz. Admit you lied and we can move on, i mean we will all still laugh and point at you but we will do so with pity rather than derision. Look its up to you but at least consider it. Pity or derision? What one do you prefer? Or when you start to feel.under pressure you could attempt your regular defelction tactic like invent a headcase profile like RuleBritannia again. Interesting you dont deny it, but why shlukd you when we are all on to you. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadasdillinger Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 With the greatest respect, comparing polls conducted on various football fora and those taken at student debates with the ones done by the likes of Gallup etc is not really valid. Professional polling companies attempt (or, they should at least), ensure that they try to conduct a poll with a sample which is as representative of the population as a whole as possible. When you have self-selecting surveys like those on here, then it's going to be those with the strongest motivation and interest who look to reply. As far as I'm aware, in the case of most referenda like this it is usually the side looking to break from the status quo who have more of this type of supporter. I could take a survey of the Edinburgh investment community (where I work), and I'd reckon that a no vote would carry the day by a proportion of around 4 to 1. But then, this also wouldn't be representative of the wider community either. The point of the article isn't to be representative of the whole country, merely showing how hard it is to find polls - online, from debates or otherwise - that don't back yes. These polls of 1000 or so people claim to be representative of the nation as a whole but are often complete bollocks, as 2011 showed. I find it more interesting that out of some 20,000 odd PCS members, 18000 opted to stay neutral, 5000 said yes and not a soul said no - or that out of 19,000(!) canvassed voters in the Donside by election, Yes won. That to me is more interesting than the results of 1000 folk being surveyed, whether its weighted or whatever other measure they've taken to make it representative. The article is meant as an alternate flavour of popular opinion, not to be totally representative. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The point of the article isn't to be representative of the whole country, merely showing how hard it is to find polls - online, from debates or otherwise - that don't back yes. These polls of 1000 or so people claim to be representative of the nation as a whole but are often complete bollocks, as 2011 showed. I find it more interesting that out of some 20,000 odd PCS members, 18000 opted to stay neutral, 5000 said yes and not a soul said no - or that out of 19,000(!) canvassed voters in the Donside by election, Yes won. That to me is more interesting than the results of 1000 folk being surveyed, whether its weighted or whatever other measure they've taken to make it representative. The article is meant as an alternate flavour of popular opinion, not to be totally representative. The Donside byelection canvassing was done by the SNP - perhaps you have more information about the methodology used here but I'd hardly be rushing to use this as particularly strong evidence. Studies have shown that polls can be manipulated massively if certain questions are asked in the run-up to the main question. That's why it is always interesting to read exactly how these things are conducted. While the results of the PCS election are striking, again it only represents one subset of the population and the majority did opt for not supporting either campaign officially. I accept that any one poll can be bollocks, but it is rare for many polls to be totally wrong. That isn't to say that things can't change, but I'd argue that the current polls reflect a fairly accurate view of the current state of play. I only glanced quickly at the 2011 polls but the ones conducted closer to the time of election seemed to be broadly right IIRC. Nate Silver's book 'The Signal and the Noise' is pretty good on this subject and a really interesting read. I actually think your whole article is made weaker by the inclusion of the various polls on football fora. Everyone knows that they're not really representative and so easily manipulated as to be pretty worthless. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 (edited) Wow. The seethe is strong with you. Meltdown imminent. Not sure why you think I would require the respect such as yourself......you know a compulsive liar...and a coward. Is your cowardice something that has caused you problems on your real life, you know like making fabricated statements then just running away. Even your fellow NO voters are disowning you. You must be feeling lonely. Did you think you could get away with lying about Stiglitz. Admit you lied and we can move on, i mean we will all still laugh and point at you but we will do so with pity rather than derision. Look its up to you but at least consider it. Pity or derision? What one do you prefer? Or when you start to feel.under pressure you could attempt your regular defelction tactic like invent a headcase profile like RuleBritannia again. Interesting you dont deny it, but why shlukd you when we are all on to you. Ooft... you were utterly RAGING when you typed this - errors galore. Stay calm - there's a long way to last 'til September. Which for you means loads more scope to lie further. Though you'll be doing well to top your Osborne lie. You still haven't come up with anything in the way of an explanation for it. I'm disappointed - I have to confess. I expected at least something in the way of a background to the lie - maybe you were hearing voices? Maybe you read it on the Tarff Advertiser website? At least something. But no. Cowardice, lies and refusal to apologise. Tsk. Disappointing chicBurma. Not surprising I suppose. But yet, disappointing nonetheless. Edited February 23, 2014 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I see there is a new ICM poll today for the SoS, showing a move to No. Must have slipped the minds of our more diligent Nat poll watchers to post this up. http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371 "Support for a No vote has climbed five points to 49 per cent in the space of a month and now enjoys a 12-point gap over the pro-independence side, which is unchanged on 37 per cent. It suggests a significant number of undecideds have shifted to No" This data was gathered after Osborne's speech. Would any of the Nats claiming that "Osborne's visit has TOTALLY backfired" like to comment on these figures? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I can almost taste the seethe. And all because you have been exposed as a liar. Desperate stuff. Shocking stupidity h_b, I would expect no less, I suppose. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Ooft... you were utterly RAGING when you typed this - errors galore. Stay calm - there's a long way to last 'til September. . Raging? Nah. Eating a sandwich whilst watching the rugby. You are but a minor, although hilarious distraction. Although I can tell you almost broke your device when you hammered out your cowardly tear stained and almost unintelligible response. Go back to your cowardly RuleBritannia alias. Its much more "you". Ok can you at least explain why you run away every time you are asked a question? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Would any of the Nats claiming that "Osborne's visit has TOTALLY backfired" like to comment on these figures? "look at me" cried the increasingly irrelevant and redundant HBRuleBrittania. "Yawn" was the reply from P&B. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 "look at me" cried the increasingly irrelevant and redundant HBRuleBrittania. "Yawn" was the reply from P&B. Well, just the one lie here. That's progress, I suppose. Still, at least you are taking it well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 My new blog article, 'Poll after poll returns YES vote', is now online at http://saoralba2014.blogspot.co.uk/ Please read and share. (Seemed like the best thread for it) Online polls are not worth the paper they are not written on. That's not just the type of political poll that is open to hijacking by interested parties eg multi-voting - most polls online don't have the rigour required for serious analysis. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Well, just the one lie here. That's progress, I suppose. Still, at least you are taking it well. So which one was the lie? The fact you are irrelevant or the fact you are redundant? Still at least your sticking to your principle if running away from ANY question anyone ever asks you. I name thee troll. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Online polls are not worth the paper they are not written on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The Donside byelection canvassing was done by the SNP - perhaps you have more information about the methodology used here but I'd hardly be rushing to use this as particularly strong evidence. Studies have shown that polls can be manipulated massively if certain questions are asked in the run-up to the main question. That's why it is always interesting to read exactly how these things are conducted. While the results of the PCS election are striking, again it only represents one subset of the population and the majority did opt for not supporting either campaign officially. I accept that any one poll can be bollocks, but it is rare for many polls to be totally wrong. That isn't to say that things can't change, but I'd argue that the current polls reflect a fairly accurate view of the current state of play. I only glanced quickly at the 2011 polls but the ones conducted closer to the time of election seemed to be broadly right IIRC. Nate Silver's book 'The Signal and the Noise' is pretty good on this subject and a really interesting read. I actually think your whole article is made weaker by the inclusion of the various polls on football fora. Everyone knows that they're not really representative and so easily manipulated as to be pretty worthless. You are right about manipulation. I remember being shown a long time ago by my marketing lecturer how subtle rephrasing of a question can give completely different responses. It's an old joke that marketing executives, when drawing up a market research survey, ask their clients not what questions they want but what answers they want. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I see there is a new ICM poll today for the SoS, showing a move to No. Must have slipped the minds of our more diligent Nat poll watchers to post this up. http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371 "Support for a No vote has climbed five points to 49 per cent in the space of a month and now enjoys a 12-point gap over the pro-independence side, which is unchanged on 37 per cent. It suggests a significant number of undecideds have shifted to No" This data was gathered after Osborne's speech. http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/new-panelbase-poll-shows-pro.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 (edited) http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/new-panelbase-poll-shows-pro.htmlI read that link and it confirms what I was saying - what might look like a neutral poll isn't. That's not just because he SNP commissioned it - if it had been Labour or the Tories I would have been just as sceptical.At the end of the day the only poll that matters is the one in September. Edited February 23, 2014 by DeeTillEhDeh 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 More importantly also, many of the voters in these polls aren't eligible to vote, due to either being too young, or registered as aliases. Take the Perthshire weirdo on here for example - no idea how many times he's voted in "our" Independence referendum thread. Once again clutching at straws like a scarecrow having a w**k. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/new-panelbase-poll-shows-pro.html So, over the two polls, it shows No gaining based on previous polling. I do like how this Nat blogger tries to rubbish the ICM poll results, because it rather incoveniently doesn't suit his agenda. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 So, over the two polls, it shows No gaining based on previous polling. I do like how this Nat blogger tries to rubbish the ICM poll results, because it rather incoveniently doesn't suit his agenda. Wow. Your desperate attempts to portray the YES campaign as floundering are almost pitiful. Almost. For the most part its comical. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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