LinkinFighter Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Interesting way to spin it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Turnout will be 60-65% 1979 it was 63% 1997 it was 60% Referendums in Britain aren't historically well supported. 65% would be a high turnout. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This is way, way, way more important imo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I reckon turnout will be 75-90% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What do you base that on? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Turnout will be 60-65% 1979 it was 63% 1997 it was 60% Referendums in Britain aren't historically well supported. 65% would be a high turnout. Ok, and you're saying Yes will score significantly under 40%. So let's say the vote is 35% for Yes with a 60% turnout; That's around 840000 Scots voting Yes, with just over 1.5 voting No. I cannot see it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 (edited) Ok, and you're saying Yes will score significantly under 40%. So let's say the vote is 35% for Yes with a 60% turnout; That's around 840000 Scots voting Yes, with just over 1.5 voting No. I cannot see it. Or you choose not to see it, just saying, guess the turn out will also depend on the polls, if it looks like one side is heading for a good victory, or people just don't engage with the campaign, but hope the turn out is 90-95%, although I wont be it might be closer to 70-75%, which is good Edited March 24, 2014 by ecto 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's a pretty baseless claim that it would be impossible for 1.5m no votes. A high turnout would be great news for yes though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 What do you base that on? Why does that matter ? Your predictions and entire view of how this campaign is going is way off IMO. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 My predictions on turnout are based on historic precedent. Your prediction of a 90% turnout is more in line with Zimbabwe. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 My predictions on turnout are based on historic precedent. Your prediction of a 90% turnout is more in line with Zimbabwe. My prediction wasn't 90% though was it ? The turnout will be at least 75% possibly high 80s. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 My prediction wasn't 90% though was it ? The turnout will be at least 75% possibly high 80s. I reckon turnout will be 75-90% The highest turnout for a vote since 1918 was 83.9% in 1951. On similar single issue votes in Scotland, 35-40% of voters stayed at home - even in 1979 after the Winter of Discontent with oil flooding ashore and barrel prices tripling and a Tory government in Westminster talking about cuts. I can understand why Nationalists feel this is incredibly important, especially politically aware young men like most who inhabit this particular forum but guys, you're a minority. Currently a very vocal minority but the majority of Scots do not share your zeal. It's your obsession, not ours. I only pop in to these threads from time to time because it's really not a big deal to me. Independence or no, it will still be a shower of c***s in charge and for the ordinary man, nothing ever changes. Still, enjoy your windmill-tilting. Everybody should have a go at some point in their life. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The highest turnout for a vote since 1918 was 83.9% in 1951. On similar single issue votes in Scotland, 35-40% of voters stayed at home - even in 1979 after the Winter of Discontent with oil flooding ashore and barrel prices tripling and a Tory government in Westminster talking about cuts. I can understand why Nationalists feel this is incredibly important, especially politically aware young men like most who inhabit this particular forum but guys, you're a minority. Currently a very vocal minority but the majority of Scots do not share your zeal. It's your obsession, not ours. I only pop in to these threads from time to time because it's really not a big deal to me. Independence or no, it will still be a shower of c***s in charge and for the ordinary man, nothing ever changes. Still, enjoy your windmill-tilting. Everybody should have a go at some point in their life. How do you define nationalist exactly ? I'm getting a bid fed up hearing this word. I've never voted or been interested in politics until now. I'm voting yes because I think we can build a better country making our own decisions. Am I a nationalist ? Are you a Britnat. A Scottish parliament accountable to the people, with a proper constitution, sounds a hell of a lot better than the right wing corporate shitefest that Westminster has become. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeeJay Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I hope there's a yes vote in September, but one thing I'm sure on is the odds for yes will shorten. Market for a yes currently sitting at 4/1 on Betfair... I'm not too familiar with how Betfair works, can anyone help me out? If I was to bet £10 on a yes vote at 4/1 tonight, and then lay when I believe it will fall to, for example, 2/1 - how much profit have I made? Any other suggestions to make money for someone who is confident the market will close in over the summer? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 There is a TNS poll out. Surveys done 26th February to 9th March. 32:46:22 (certain to vote) 28:42:30 (all surveyed) They did three polls in January, which seems a bit overkill. All their data is up on their site. For reference, the most recent January poll churned out: 35:44:21 (certain to vote) 29:42:29 (all surveyed) The middle January poll churned out: 32:49:19 (certain to vote) 29:42:29 (all surveyed) And the early January poll churned out: 34:44:22 (certain to vote) 28:42:30 (all surveyed) As is fairly self-evident, there are spikes here and there among these 4 polls but overall they broadly keep within the margin of error of one another. Those certain to vote seem to be a little bit more volatile than the population as a whole. Whereas the gap over the whole population has stayed within a range of 13-16 points since November, among those certain to vote it has fluctuated from 9-17 over the same period. Insofar as there has been sustained movement in the TNS poll, it seems to have occurred between September and November. The gap among all voters had been as wide as 19 and among those certain to vote as high as 22. They seem to be settling on a gap of circa 14 points for both now. If you were to strip out the DKs among those certain to vote, we're getting a 41:59 victory for No. TNS does not suggest much momentum in any direction since November. The Yes campaign will need to hope that they can achieve a swing in their favour which is bigger than that they achieved between September 2013 and March 2014 between now and polling day if they are to cut it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 There is a TNS poll out. Surveys done 26th February to 9th March. 32:46:22 (certain to vote) 28:42:30 (all surveyed) They did three polls in January, which seems a bit overkill. All their data is up on their site. For reference, the most recent January poll churned out: 35:44:21 (certain to vote) 29:42:29 (all surveyed) The middle January poll churned out: 32:49:19 (certain to vote) 29:42:29 (all surveyed) And the early January poll churned out: 34:44:22 (certain to vote) 28:42:30 (all surveyed) As is fairly self-evident, there are spikes here and there among these 4 polls but overall they broadly keep within the margin of error of one another. Those certain to vote seem to be a little bit more volatile than the population as a whole. Whereas the gap over the whole population has stayed within a range of 13-16 points since November, among those certain to vote it has fluctuated from 9-17 over the same period. Insofar as there has been sustained movement in the TNS poll, it seems to have occurred between September and November. The gap among all voters had been as wide as 19 and among those certain to vote as high as 22. They seem to be settling on a gap of circa 14 points for both now. If you were to strip out the DKs among those certain to vote, we're getting a 41:59 victory for No. TNS does not suggest much momentum in any direction since November. The Yes campaign will need to hope that they can achieve a swing in their favour which is bigger than that they achieved between September 2013 and March 2014 between now and polling day if they are to cut it. I saw a graph of the various ICM polls and it shows pretty much the same thing - spikes up and down but no real trend either way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Just a quick question as I am a fairly recent poster to these threads. What's this NCC that HB refers to? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackIsleBud Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Just a quick question as I am a fairly recent poster to these threads. What's this NCC that HB refers to? The 'Nat Clown Collective'.......a hilarious jibe coined by a pr1ck of a man calling himself Reynard. The BNK's on here use it quite a lot. You may have noticed some of his postings on here. His other joyous catchphrase is "Buckled left-wing fuckwits" or somesuch. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Just a quick question as I am a fairly recent poster to these threads. What's this NCC that HB refers to? Basically, just scroll past anything he writes and you'll be fine. I used to read it, until I realised everything was genuinely, absolute, pish. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I agree with Oaksoft. A No vote is ABSOLUTELY saying you have no confidence in Scotland governing her own affairs and you'd rather continue to be shafted by Westminster. Might be a harsh truth, but a truth nonetheless. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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