Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Confidemus]

I'm pretty sure the majority of Scots don't consider the English to be a crock of shit though

Classic example of opening your mouth and letting your belly rumble.

Being that I'm half English, I'd hardly consider the entirety of England to be a crock of shit.

[Mr Bairn]

Classic example of opening your mouth and letting your belly rumble.

Being that I'm half English, I'd hardly consider the entirety of England to be a crock of shit.

[Mr Bairn]

Right, and John Terry has black friends

[Double Jack D]

I'm pretty sure the majority of Scots don't consider the English to be a crock of shit though

Definitely not. I am part English through my mums side and have extended English family.

Scottish independence is not a xenophobic movement.

[ayrmad]

Mr Bairn trying so hard to be like the big boys but once you admit you are trolling, it just looks a bit pathetic to keep it up.

In other news, there is a sea of blue on Oddschecker to indicate that the odds are shortening on a yes vote. You can get 1/3 on a No vote now, out from around about 1/7 not too long ago. Short as 9/4 for a yes vote in places. Wee lex is going to be feeling the sweat start to drip down his neck now as we all know how much the odds mean to him.

In the 3rd week of November the odds for NO were between 1/7 and 1/12, that's between 87.5% and 92.3% probability, now it's between 1/3 and 1/4, 75% and 80%, a decent shift considering all the kitchen sinks that have been thrown into the argument by NO since then.

[ayrmad]

The 3/1 that was mentioned last week has gone, 11/4 is the best you can get. I'd be shocked if that lasts much longer.

It's not that long ago that Ladbrokes offered 6/1 on their twitter feed, they were obviously trying to balance their books, I bet they wish they had waited.

[Mr Bairn]

Is this on top of your full time maths degree or are you including working a few hours a week at Burger King as your magnificent insight into the working world?

Well it's a part time job in a retail store

[~~~]

Financial Times poll

[Jamaldo]

I'm not convinced that gap is closing fast enough.

Why on earth is that relevant? Do people actually believe that the result of the very last poll released before the referendum will be the same result come the referendum?

Polls are only supposed to give a general idea of the mood in the country with regards to the vote. I really think both sides need to stop taking them so seriously. It was the No side before and now the Yes side are at it too.

I would be very surprised if we had the lead in any polls in the 2-3 weeks leading up to the vote, although the gaps should be close in most if not all of them.

[Colkitto]

Why on earth is that relevant? Do people actually believe that the result of the very last poll released before the referendum will be the same result come the referendum?

Polls are only supposed to give a general idea of the mood in the country with regards to the vote. I really think both sides need to stop taking them so seriously. It was the No side before and now the Yes side are at it too.

I would be very surprised if we had the lead in any polls in the 2-3 weeks leading up to the vote, although the gaps should be close in most if not all of them.

Totally agree. I also believe a large percentage of voters won't make their minds up till the campaign is in full swing.

You may see small movement in the polls up until the campaign starts in late May.

Significant movement will probably only take place late July/August.

[Guest]

When does this real campaigning that I'm hearing so much about from both sides actually start?

I am under the impression all the information is out there already from both sides.

What will this real campaigning entail?

A lot of people have made up their minds without even looking into at all.

Edited April 16, 2014 by Guest

[Colkitto]

When does this real campaigning that I'm hearing so much about from both sides actually start?

I am under the impression all the information is out there already from both sides.

What will this real campaigning entail?

A lot of people have made up their minds without even looking into at all.

Campaign period is right after the EU elections - late May. Will be like a normal election campaign that you get leading up to General elections

[H_B]

You may see small movement in the polls up until the campaign starts in late May.

Sorry "starts"?

Are you saying the Yes campaign has yet to begin?

It's also predicted that for Yes to actually win, they'd need to be comfortably ahead prior to polling day. Late changes of mind are more likely to be for the no change rather than the change faction.

[harry94]

It's also predicted that for Yes to actually win, they'd need to be comfortably ahead prior to polling day. Late changes of mind are more likely to be for the no change rather than the change faction.

I don't really think that's a reasonable assumption to make; there are far too many variables in play.

[H_B]

I don't really think that's a reasonable assumption to make; there are far too many variables in play.

If you look at Quebec, "Yes" had a substantial lead in the weeks leading up to polling day, and yet lost.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.31.4063&rep=rep1&type=pdf

On the eve of the referendum, the outcome of the vote was widely regarded as too close to

call. Polls conducted close to the date of the referendum indicated that about 52 percent to 53

percent of decided voters intended to vote ‘yes...... Using

model 1 (which – recall – fits a linear trend on the logit scale) to project the percentage ‘yes’

vote to the October 30 date of the referendum, produces the prediction of a 53.1 percent ‘yes’

vote, with a 95-percent confidence interval running from 51.7 percent to 54.5 percent. This

prediction is, of course, mistaken.

[renton]

Sorry "starts"?

Are you saying the Yes campaign has yet to begin?

It's also predicted that for Yes to actually win, they'd need to be comfortably ahead prior to polling day. Late changes of mind are more likely to be for the no change rather than the change faction.

Is that a universal trend across all comparable referendums?

[AlfieMoon]

I'm not convinced that gap is closing fast enough.

Remember a 7% gap is only a 4% swing required.

If you look at the 7% gap and expected 2/3 of undecideds being swayed to Yes then that shows how close it is getting.

Vast, vast majority of the debates around the country sees people going No -> Don't Know -> Yes.

It absolutely can happen quickly enough.

[ayrmad]

If you look at Quebec, "Yes" had a substantial lead in the weeks leading up to polling day, and yet lost.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.31.4063&rep=rep1&type=pdf

On the eve of the referendum, the outcome of the vote was widely regarded as too close to

call. Polls conducted close to the date of the referendum indicated that about 52 percent to 53

percent of decided voters intended to vote ‘yes...... Using

model 1 (which – recall – fits a linear trend on the logit scale) to project the percentage ‘yes’

vote to the October 30 date of the referendum, produces the prediction of a 53.1 percent ‘yes’

vote, with a 95-percent confidence interval running from 51.7 percent to 54.5 percent. This

prediction is, of course, mistaken.

What sort of things happened in the final few weeks of the Quebec referendum?

Will all those things happen in Scotland?

Will any that are replicated have the same affect?

[Colkitto]

Sorry "starts"?

Are you saying the Yes campaign has yet to begin?

It's also predicted that for Yes to actually win, they'd need to be comfortably ahead prior to polling day. Late changes of mind are more likely to be for the no change rather than the change faction.

The "official" campaign has yet to start. As in the 16-week regulated period

Edited April 16, 2014 by Colkitto

[Kejan]

When does this real campaigning that I'm hearing so much about from both sides actually start?

I am under the impression all the information is out there already from both sides.

What will this real campaigning entail?

A lot of people have made up their minds without even looking into at all.

No idea what the real campaigning will entail either, but I think come June might be when folk might take an interest.

I suspect a few of the undecideded/soft no or yes will back whoever they think looks like winning or has the most momentum. There's also the 'Ah, f**k it' vote and tick a cross beside yes or no just deciding on the day.

It would be interesting to see what the actual numbers are regarding undecided/soft no or yes voters there actually are. A poll today had it at something like Yes 29, No 41, Undecided 30.