Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[pandarilla]

That was kind of my point. You hear the Braveheart comments regularly, but No voters are much more likely to vote due to patriotic reasons in my view. Being British is very much an in trend just now.

Ahh, my bad.

Too clever for me chief.

[Mr Bairn]

Oaksoft opens a thread with the sole purpose to character assassinate Mr Bairn.

Same old, same old.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Still not confident.

A year ago I'd have been happy with 48/52, removing the undecideds. Who the f**k still doesn't know how they're voting by now? Kiddy on "cautious" mongos, that's who. The type you hear moaning that they haven't been given enough information but haven't actually bothered their arse to pay attention to anything.

I'm not slagging off all undecideds because there will be intelligent, open minded people in that camp. The majority (at this stage in the game) though will be the proper thickos, who will end up drifting to No. Show me a poll with 45%+ Yes voters including DKs and I'll have fizzy baws.

[Mr. Bojangles]

Still not confident.

A year ago I'd have been happy with 48/52, removing the undecideds. Who the f**k still doesn't know how they're voting by now? Kiddy on "cautious" mongos, that's who. The type you hear moaning that they haven't been given enough information but haven't actually bothered their arse to pay attention to anything.

I'm not slagging off all undecideds because there will be intelligent, open minded people in that camp. The majority (at this stage in the game) though will be the proper thickos, who will end up drifting to No. Show me a poll with 45%+ Yes voters including DKs and I'll have fizzy baws.

There was a massive shift in at least one of the Quebec referendums in the last couple of months because it was only then that the majority of people started to pay attention.

[Ivo den Bieman]

Still not confident.

A year ago I'd have been happy with 48/52, removing the undecideds. Who the f**k still doesn't know how they're voting by now? Kiddy on "cautious" mongos, that's who. The type you hear moaning that they haven't been given enough information but haven't actually bothered their arse to pay attention to anything.

I'm not slagging off all undecideds because there will be intelligent, open minded people in that camp. The majority (at this stage in the game) though will be the proper thickos, who will end up drifting to No. Show me a poll with 45%+ Yes voters including DKs and I'll have fizzy baws.

softly softly though.

I am happy with the steady erosion of No support, a process undoubtedly speeded up by the No campaign taking a daily gaffe-dump at present.

The real worry for me is that a lot of "dont knows" are actually closet Noes too embarrased to say so, much in the manner of residual Tory support in Scotland in the 80s and early 90s.

Edited April 21, 2014 by Ivo den Bieman

[Jamaldo]

softly softly though.

I am happy with the steady erosion of No support, a process undoubtedly speeded up by the No campaign taking a daily gaffe-dump at present.

The real worry for me is that a lot of "dont knows" are actually closet Noes too embarrased to say so, much in the manner of residual Tory support in Scotland in the 80s and early 90s.

Bros before Noes.

[Enigma]

softly softly though.

I am happy with the steady erosion of No support, a process undoubtedly speeded up by the No campaign taking a daily gaffe-dump at present.

The real worry for me is that a lot of "dont knows" are actually closet Noes too embarrased to say so, much in the manner of residual Tory support in Scotland in the 80s and early 90s.

Yup, that's what's worrying me. Has there been recent polling of don't knows in a 'more inclines to vote' stylee?

[FlyerTon]

Just heard on the radio there that if people knew there was going to be a Tory UK election win next year the yes vote would be 49%.

Just remember the Tories tried out the Poll Tax in Scotland before anywhere else in 1990, and have recently shut down two of the 3 RAF bases here whilst leaving us with the nukes 20 miles from Glasgow. They have also shut down Clyde Coastguard.

Endless Tory governments? There is a chance of that if we vote no.

Nobody wants the Tories in Scotland apart from some folk in the south of Scotland where they have their 1 solitary Scottish MP.

[renton]

Yup, that's what's worrying me. Has there been recent polling of don't knows in a 'more inclines to vote' stylee?

The last commissioned Wings poll broke down the undecided sub sample as follows: Strongly inclined to yes 10% Moderately inclined to Yes 29% Undecided 34% Moderately inclined to No 25% Strongly inclined to No 2%.

The caveat there is that the sample size is small and therefore potential error is large. If it were a true estimate of intentions and you bundled the inclined to Yes and Nos into their respective groups, based on Wings/PB's healdine figures it's be a one point swing required witha couple of % undecideds.

Edited April 21, 2014 by renton

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

softly softly though.

I am happy with the steady erosion of No support, a process undoubtedly speeded up by the No campaign taking a daily gaffe-dump at present.

The real worry for me is that a lot of "dont knows" are actually closet Noes too embarrased to say so, much in the manner of residual Tory support in Scotland in the 80s and early 90s.

I reckon enough people in England will buy the "economic recovery" nonsense that will be fed to them in the media over the next twelve months and the Conservatives will get another five years, perhaps in coalition with the Lib Dems again if they manage to scrape enough MP's.

Couple that with the fact that Labour are still a shambles and Ed Miliband is a complete diddy - who also looks like the boy from Wallace & Gromit - and there's your lot.

This x2.

Saw some Oxbridge academic laddy on TV a while ago who had studied opinion polls going back years. His theory was whatever Tories are polling at, you can bump on 8 points to their actually vote. Same applies here, a lot of the genuine don't knows and soft No's have presumably came over in recent months but eventually the supposed don't know's will be nothing of the sort.

I'm encouraged by the momentum but Yes won't win at this rate. It's a 3-0 down at half-time, pulled it back to 3-1 on 60 minutes type feeling for me.

And aye Paulo, I fancy the Tories to win the next GE as well. Milliband is a useless c**t.

[renton]

This x2.

Saw some Oxbridge academic laddy on TV a while ago who had studied opinion polls going back years. His theory was whatever Tories are polling at, you can bump on 8 points to their actually vote. Same applies here, a lot of the genuine don't knows and soft No's have presumably came over in recent months but eventually the supposed don't know's will be nothing of the sort.

I'm encouraged by the momentum but Yes won't win at this rate. It's a 3-0 down at half-time, pulled it back to 3-1 on 60 minutes type feeling for me.

And aye Paulo, I fancy the Tories to win the next GE as well. Milliband is a useless c**t.

There is currently no evidence of a 'shy No' syndrome, or 'shy yes' for that matter - and it's worth noting that polling companies eventually compensated for 'Shy tory syndrome'.

Base don the numbers from the likes of PB, ICM and Survation you need anythign from a 5 point to a 2 point swing to get it, in the latter case you only need the 15-20% undecideds to break a little bit better for yes than No to get it.

[Mr. Bojangles]

I'm not sure where the shy no stuff is coming from. Maybe online, I could see that because online there is a lot of Yes traffic. In real life yes voters seem to be quieter, as far as I can see, and no voters are incredibly in your face about it. Maybe it's just where I live, though.

[Ivo den Bieman]

Well I hope that you are both right, and that the "secret no" vote is much smaller than I suspect.

I have no current evidence for it, just a long and weary memory of secret Tory voters in Scotland in the 1980s.

[Mr Bairn]

I'm not sure where the shy no stuff is coming from. Maybe online, I could see that because online there is a lot of Yes traffic. In real life yes voters seem to be quieter, as far as I can see, and no voters are incredibly in your face about it. Maybe it's just where I live, though.

I think, from what I've noticed in real life, it's a pretty even split. More people are open about being no voters imo, although maybe that's just because I spend most of my time alongside students, a lot of whom are either English, posh, or both.

Edited April 21, 2014 by Mr Bairn

[Double Jack D]

My experience is that, of the people who are willing to say which way they Will vote, the no's are more vocal. Most of the don't knows tell me they want to vote yes but haven't been convinced yet.

Over the past 6 months I personally know many no's who have become don't knows and many don't knows who have become yes's. I know none who have shifted from yes. The people I know who have remained a no, Im not sure they will vote in great numbers, they genuinely have no real interest and base it on stupid things like the Olympics and price of lager in Scandinavian countries. When any attempt is made to debate the subject is changed, quickly.

Like I said above, I certainly sense a change. An exciting one!

[Confidemus]

That's because the vast majority of no voters are imbeciles.

I'm not wanting to alienate anyone by saying this btw, as they can still change their minds.

^^^ this squared.

Your average No voter, through selfish or fearful reasons, is generally an arsehole I've found.

[Mr Bairn]

That's because the vast majority of no voters are imbeciles.

I'm not wanting to alienate anyone by saying this btw, as they can still change their minds.

[q{O_O}p]

^^^ Case in point.

[Lex]

No voters called 'arseholes' and 'imbeciles'. Teenage girls being called 'c***s' on other threads. All recently on this forum, all by yes voters.

And people wonder why so many are tuning out of this 'debate'.

Poor show guys, very poor show.

[Confidemus]

No voters called 'arseholes' and 'imbeciles'. Teenage girls being called 'c***s' on other threads. All recently on this forum, all by yes voters.

And people wonder why so many are tuning out of this 'debate'.

Poor show guys, very poor show.

No voters are arseholes and imbeciles. You, HB and Mr Bairn are all No voters. Quite hard to argue against that.

The "teenage girl" was a fictional creation made up by a troll.

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