Thumper Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 YouGov is infamously Labour-leaning. It's difficult to imagine that you weren't aware of this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Comes and goes, there's no real momentum with either side though. Which is good for us because we're winning. Any comment on the above poll? There is definitely a trend towards Yes, that much is obvious when you look at polls going back to January 2013. Anyway, regarding the above poll: See my posts on the previous page. We Now have 4 pollsters: ICM, PB, Survation and TNS saying Yes need a swing of 2-4.5% and 2 who say Yes need a swing of 8.5-9%. The former is doable, the latter, obviously isn't. The former has shown the biggest swings towards Yes, the latter group has YouGov which tends to be quite static over the course and Ipsos who've shown some swings to yes, but over a glacial time period. Basically, both groups can't be right. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 (edited) YouGov is infamously Labour-leaning. Indeed. YouGov's president, Peter Kellner, a friend of Tony Blair, is married to Baroness Cathy Ashton. The highest paid female politician around(even paid more than Obama) and who has never been elected to anything in her life. Blair made her a Baroness so she could get into the Lords to get the Lisbon Treaty through, which she did. Still, I don't think YouGov would fabricate figures as high as a 20 point difference. Perhaps they merely doubled a 10 point lead. Edited June 18, 2014 by Tryfield 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banterman86 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I have no interest in the phoney war of polling so this is a genuine question why do both camps get all excited about figures when don't knows are stripped out, given that don't knows appear to be key in this referendum? Isn't it all a bit false? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I have no interest in the phoney war of polling so this is a genuine question why do both camps get all excited about figures when don't knows are stripped out, given that don't knows appear to be key in this referendum? Isn't it all a bit false? Yep. The way the campaign and mud slinging has gone on...I won't be surprised if the Don't Knows turn into Don't Cares who don't bother voting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 I have no interest in the phoney war of polling so this is a genuine question why do both camps get all excited about figures when don't knows are stripped out, given that don't knows appear to be key in this referendum? Isn't it all a bit false? It's just to round it up to 100 percent... The headline figures are 53-36. I'm not sure of much, but i am sure the final result won't be No 53% Yes 36%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yep. The way the campaign and mud slinging has gone on...I won't be surprised if the Don't Knows turn into Don't Cares who don't bother voting. Agree with that. I think turnout could be a lot lower than anticipated. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Agree with that. I think turnout could be a lot lower than anticipated. I'm guessing it'll be 70-75% for this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm guessing it'll be 70-75% for this. I was thinking around the 75-80% mark. Whoever loses the vote, instead of slating those on the opposite side, surely they should be directing their ire and rage at the non voters first? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I have no interest in the phoney war of polling so this is a genuine question why do both camps get all excited about figures when don't knows are stripped out, given that don't knows appear to be key in this referendum? Isn't it all a bit false? Makes the numbers look bigger? I don't know, I don't particularly mind so long as folk are consistent about it. A couple of the pollsters have introduced questions to ascertain which way the DKs lean now. For most of the pollsters the stripping out the DKs doesn't make a huge difference to the results. It's only really TNS which always returns a massive amount of DKs that you see a difference. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I was thinking around the 75-80% mark. Whoever loses the vote, instead of slating those on the opposite side, surely they should be directing their ire and rage at the non voters first? There are going to be a lot more voters this time as well. Not just the 16-17 year olds, but there has been a big pick in registrstion form folk who haven't voted since the poll tax days. Personally, I have no problem with non voters, it is in itself an expression of democratic will i.e. "I trust in my fellows to make the decision for me." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Just having a quick swatch at the different pollster methodologies, and I could be wrong - but one thing I did note is that the 4 grouped around the 2-4.5% required swing all weight by 2011 recalled vote. IN the big swing group - YouGov and Ipsos - YouGov recall by 2010 vote and Ipsos don't weight by recalled vote at all. There will obviously be other differences in weighting but that could definitely be a contributing factor. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 why do both camps get all excited about figures when don't knows are stripped out, I'm not sure that this is true. I think that's generally the preserve of Yes. The Yes campaign deliberately pick their polls to exclude DKs from, to give them a figure closer to 50. One that isn't real, given that there are DKs in the polling sample. The No campaign's vice is more to ignore the polls they don't like and trumpet the ones they do. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The use of "swing" itself is quite amusing. It's purely a way to make a big gap sound smaller by halving it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The use of "swing" itself is quite amusing. It's purely a way to make a big gap sound smaller by halving it. Not really, for one reason or another, this late on the polls all show DK numbers slightly attenuated but by no means markedly reduced, and while the +/- numbers for both sides tend to be assymetric there does seem to be a case of No going down as Yes goes up and vice versa. Very rarely does one side or the other take points from DK alone. Now it may be that you see folk going from No to DK to Yes at roughly the same rate, as folk giong from No to Yes seems unlikely (although not impossible) but I would argue that 'swing' is still a valid, if not entirely exact way of examining the gap. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Not really, Well, it is. You won't hear the No campaign say they are "5% swing" ahead. It's a tool of the Yes campaign (and indeed all underdogs in an election or referendum), to make a 12 point gap sound manageable by calling it a 6% swing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Well, it is. You won't hear the No campaign say they are "5% swing" ahead. It's a tool of the Yes campaign (and indeed all underdogs in an election or referendum), to make a 12 point gap sound manageable by calling it a 6% swing. Well it's shit grammer for a start. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Well it's shit grammer for a start.^^^ Irony intended? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 ^^^ Irony intended? I'm an engineer, I don't need good grammer, just shit hot maths 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 We need more Kelsey Grammer in this debate, I welcome his introduction. Good night Seattle! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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