Blaven Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 My ex is Scottish and a no voter. She also WORSHIPS Alex Salmond to borderline weird levels. Wisbit weird levels? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Ex girlfriend. And no not that weird. She does have a poster of him in two different rooms in her house though 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 You hope there is a hurricane in the borders? YOU'RE WELL SCUM ETC ETC. ^^^ Quisling for not wanting Borders hurricane. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Ex girlfriend. And no not that weird. She does have a poster of him in two different rooms in her house though She sounds a wee smasher. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 She sounds a wee smasher. She's fucking weird. She worships Salmond as some kind of shield from nasty Cameron, but thinks we're too wee and poor to actually go it alone. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 (edited) Ex girlfriend. You had a girlfriend? Whoda thunk. Edited July 3, 2014 by Burma 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 She's fucking weird. She worships Salmond as some kind of shield from nasty Cameron, but thinks we're too wee and poor to actually go it alone. She sounds as kinky as f**k. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 You had a girlfriend? Whoda thunk. Meh, she was desperate.... She sounds as kinky as f**k. Oh you wouldn't believe the half of it.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Meh, she was desperate.... Oh you wouldn't believe the half of it.... Wardrobe full o trouser suits and doc martins? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wardrobe full o trouser suits and doc martins? Doing a social work degree? (Just for the record this is meant to be a humourous post based on prejudices that I do not agree with.) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 My partner is English. She's a Yes. My ex-wife is English and she's a Yes. My ex-wife's partner is English and guess what? He's a Yes. f**k YouGov and their blatant statistical cherry-picking. I believe in my fellow citizens of Scotland and the majority will vote Yes. I know how 4 English people are voting and they're all voting no, do I win? As for the dig at YouGov, why pick them? Yes is losing even in the polls that favour yes. You've not been ahead in one properly weighted poll anywhere. Transport yourself back 2 and a bit years to May 2012, the day the yes campaign was launched. Had you been told then that in July 2014 yes would still be behind in every single poll, how would you have felt? Pretty pessimistic I'd wager, but that's what's happened. I admire you for putting a brave face on it though. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 My partner is English. She's a Yes. My ex-wife is English and she's a Yes. My ex-wife's partner is English and guess what? He's a Yes. f**k YouGov and their blatant statistical cherry-picking. I believe in my fellow citizens of Scotland and the majority will vote Yes. Not sure if serious. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I know how 4 English people are voting and they're all voting no, do I win? As for the dig at YouGov, why pick them? Yes is losing even in the polls that favour yes. You've not been ahead in one properly weighted poll anywhere. Transport yourself back 2 and a bit years to May 2012, the day the yes campaign was launched. Had you been told then that in July 2014 yes would still be behind in every single poll, how would you have felt? Pretty pessimistic I'd wager, but that's what's happened. I admire you for putting a brave face on it though. Which part of the RUK would you have moved to by now if the YES campaign were showing leads in the polls? Just so as we know where to find you next year. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Not sure if serious. http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/ Wow. Impressive whinge. Not an actual rebuttal to Kellner's argument, indeed he accepts that Kellner may even be correct in his analysis that incorrect voter recall is only statistically significant for SNP voters. The sum total of this blogpost amounts to "BUT IF HE'S WRONG YOUGOV ARE PURE SHITE EH?" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wow. Impressive whinge. Not an actual rebuttal to Kellner's argument, indeed he accepts that Kellner may even be correct in his analysis that incorrect voter recall is only statistically significant for SNP voters. The sum total of this blogpost amounts to "BUT IF HE'S WRONG YOUGOV ARE PURE SHITE EH?" I imagine he's still angry about pollsters playing games with the future of this country... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I imagine he's still angry about pollsters playing games with the future of this country... Wasn't him who wrote it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyWellFan Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This place will be hilarious if Yes wins. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wow. Impressive whinge. Not an actual rebuttal to Kellner's argument, indeed he accepts that Kellner may even be correct in his analysis that incorrect voter recall is only statistically significant for SNP voters. The sum total of this blogpost amounts to "BUT IF HE'S WRONG YOUGOV ARE PURE SHITE EH?" I think, the issue here is that YouGov has said that 'about half' of SNP support in 2011 came from what you might call 'passing nats' - in any sample YouGov has of this lot, there may only be a very few respondents who match this 'passing nat' description who will be upweighted dramatically to make up YouGov's 'passing nat' quota. Now, if said subsample is small, then it cannot be taken as statistically relevent or accurate, and that error is then mulitplied when the subsample is upweighted. That could lead to dramatic changes in the headline numbers. Why do it anyway? Why not simply rely on a single SNP group and asking them yes/No - as the other pollsters do. They all show a 15-18% No rate amongst the SNP on 2011 recall. Why suspect that as wrong? It feels like his assumption is that there must be more No voters, so let's go find them, akin to ICM and their search for shy Nos. Yet I can think of a few problems with Kellner's proposition, his assumption is that if he has a small subsample of 'passing nats' he needs to upweigh, then any error he finds is irrelevent since this group must all be closet Unionists lending a vote to the party of competent administration. we all know these people exist, like HB and Lex. However, Kellner doesn't seme to factor in that some folk voting SNP for the first time in 2011 did so, because between '07 and '11 they'd genuinely begun to believe independence was viable and desirable - as I did. no doubt there are other hues of the same colour, Kellner's binary assumption seems to be that the 2007 vote is the SNP's only true pro indy constituency and that any additional 2011 votes gained were merely unionists in favour of competent government. That seems to me to be the only way he could get away with multiplying up fractional subsamples without introducing an error - if he assumed said sub group was very uniform in it's outlook. Now, it may be that there is a big enough sub group in there such that any multiplied error would not be egregious. If so, publish the data tables showing the two SNP groups split - you'll note that they don't. Thus we can't interrogate this subsample for it's size or demographic outlook - if Kellner is uplifiting 45 55-65 year old women from the top two percentile, then no wonder the No lead is amplified. Not to stray from the basic point, fractional subsamples dramatically upweighted must introduce error. It's an issue all pollsters will run into from time to time, particularly in terms of age groups - ICM had previously produced massively varying headline figures base don trying to get more or less youth voters in to their polls. In this instance I see no valid reason why Kellner would introduce this further subsample. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I really doubt that a company like YouGov would deliberately skew the polling results. They are a business, based on producing accurate public polls, and if they were to get the referendum result significantly wrong it would be damaging to them as a company. Survation have responded here - http://survation.com/response-to-yesterdays-times-yougov-articles-and-yougovs-published-research-about-survations-scottish-independence-methodology/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.