SweeperDee Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Fucking hell Lex. Odds and the like aren't my strongest point but by f**k even I can see you're making a mess of this; give it up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Jesus wept. If a horse was 3/1 in a 2 horse race, or 3/1 in a 8 horse race, which would you rather bet on? ^^^ new signature found 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This reminds me of the conversation I was having with the local pub drunken pest many years ago, when he was trying to tell me that £100k house in Scotland was worth less than a £100k house in London 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Was it by any chance a middle-aged man with spaghetti hoops stains on a full replica St Mirren kit? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Was it by any chance a middle-aged man with spaghetti hoops stains on a full replica St Mirren kit? Alas no but I could picture this fellow in that attire 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This has been a great day. Lex, Libby and HB making a complete arse of themselves and each other. They really are a shining example for BT on how they could improve their campaign. :lol: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This has been a great day. Lex, Libby and HB making a complete arse of themselves and each other. They really are a shining example for BT on how they could improve their campaign. :lol: HB has been at it for days 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Think of it this way.., there's 7 ways Brazil won't win the cup. There's 1 way to lose a 2 horse race.. For example in the games tonight you'll get odds on a team to win, and odds on a team to progess. The first is a 3 event outcome (win lose or draw) the second is a 2 event outcome. Look at the difference between the odds to win the game and to progress. Look at how much taking away an outcome knocks off the price. If you really still can't see the difference there then I'm sorry. Outstanding. Just outstanding. This has to be the best yet. Thank you Lex, you made an otherwise dull train journey tolerable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Was it by any chance a middle-aged man with spaghetti hoops stains on a full replica St Mirren kit? And was he walking out the bookies looking confused and lost? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cowboy Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 This has been a great day. Lex, Libby and HB making a complete arse of themselves and each other. They really are a shining example for BT on how they could improve their campaign. :lol: to be fair, regular readers see them do that on a virtually daily basis. their lack of self awareness is sometimes staggering 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Think of it this way.., there's 7 ways Brazil won't win the cup. There's 1 way to lose a 2 horse race.. For example in the games tonight you'll get odds on a team to win, and odds on a team to progess. The first is a 3 event outcome (win lose or draw) the second is a 2 event outcome. Look at the difference between the odds to win the game and to progress. Look at how much taking away an outcome knocks off the price. If you really still can't see the difference there then I'm sorry. Wow Lex! Just Wow! There's one way Brazil can win the WC - win all their remaining ties. There's one way they can fail to win the WC - fail to win all their remaining ties. Progress to the semi-final & final is conditional on winning the previous matches. Similarly, winning a 2 horse race is conditional on getting out of the starting gates, clearing every jump & crossing the finishing line 1st. If a horse in a 2 horse race falls at the 1st fence, is that any different from losing by a nose on the line? In both cases, you lose! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Yes camp receives a boost as Brazil reach the semis. What were the odds on that eh HB? :lol: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 ^^^ Conveniently ignored the Constituency polling 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Latest UK Westminster Opinium Poll: LAB 35, CON 29, LIB 7, UKIP 18 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 74 seats Yet we should believe those who claim the Tories are going to win the May election? YouGov's most recent: LAB 37, CON 35, LIB 8, UKIP 12 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 24. COMRES' most recent: LAB 32, CON 30, LIB 7, UKIP 18 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 22. Ashcroft most recent: LAB 31, CON 33, LIB 9, UKIP 15 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Largest party, 18 short of majority, Tories 34 short and Lib Dems only on 21 seats ergo no Tory government viable. Worth adding that this assumes uniform national swing. Ashcroft poll also looked at the data in Con-Lab marginals, which suggested a larger than national swing to Labour there. This would lead to a Labour majority if it plays out even with the same national numbers. Populus most recent: LAB 37, CON 33, LIB 10, UKIP 12 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 46 Survation most recent: LAB 36, CON 27, LIB 6, UKIP 22 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 100 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 (edited) When UKIP split do you think they'll go Labour or Tory? They'll split fairly evenly but marginally in the Tories' favour. Even if UKIP lose 8 points on current polling levels and the Tories only get 6 of them, it's not enough to make them the largest party. Edited July 5, 2014 by Ad Lib 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sons superhero Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Latest UK Westminster Opinium Poll: LAB 35, CON 29, LIB 7, UKIP 18 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 74 seats Yet we should believe those who claim the Tories are going to win the May election? YouGov's most recent: LAB 37, CON 35, LIB 8, UKIP 12 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 24. COMRES' most recent: LAB 32, CON 30, LIB 7, UKIP 18 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 22. Ashcroft most recent: LAB 31, CON 33, LIB 9, UKIP 15 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Largest party, 18 short of majority, Tories 34 short and Lib Dems only on 21 seats ergo no Tory government viable. Worth adding that this assumes uniform national swing. Ashcroft poll also looked at the data in Con-Lab marginals, which suggested a larger than national swing to Labour there. This would lead to a Labour majority if it plays out even with the same national numbers. Populus most recent: LAB 37, CON 33, LIB 10, UKIP 12 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 46 Survation most recent: LAB 36, CON 27, LIB 6, UKIP 22 Electoral Calculus predicted result: Labour Majority of 100 What does the electoral calculus say about the ukip vote or is there a link. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 What does the electoral calculus say about the ukip vote or is there a link. Based on the most recent poll of polls, they are predicted to take 16.7% of the popular vote and not win a seat. By comparison, the Lib Dems are projected to win 19 seats on 7.6% of the popular vote. It's very hard to predict a parties performance from such a low base, but the smart money is on them not winning a seat, because it's simply hard to pinpoint any seats that are winnable for them. My guess is Nigel Farage will handpick a seat with an unpopular incumbent in an area where they've performed well in the Euro elections, throw money at the seat, and win it for himself, but none of his colleagues will be elected. Of course they should do well across the board and have lots of 2nd and 3rd places, but the FPTP system really screws parties like UKIP 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 http://uk.isidewith.com/poll/420350795-scottish-independence-poll/443458700-scotland 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 TNS BMRB: Yes 32% (+2%); No 46% (+4%); DK 22% (-6%) So that seems to have the undecided start to disappear. Unfortunately, they have shifted to no. It'll be interesting to see if this trend is seen in other pollsters. There has been a lot of inactivity recently. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.