Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[H_B]

And you don't want to keep no honest. I get that you try to group folk as the 'kool aid krew' (where do you get such witty names!) In order to make yourself appear more reasonable, but let's be clear - you haven't answered my central argument. You have no In tension of keeping No honest and are happy to parrot the no line whatever it happens to be that day. You are as guilty of bias and willingness to overlook your sides fault as anyone on here, that you then try to paint the other side as exclusively guilty of these behaviours while indulging your own excruciating debate style with its loaded, leading questions are the hallmarks of real intellectual dishonesty.

And you have no intention if keeping Yes honest and will willfully and intentionally ignore Yes lies while being happy to castigate the No side for the same offence.

Nothing necessarily wrong with that and I'm fine with it.

[renton]

And you have no intention if keeping Yes honest and will willfully and intentionally ignore Yes lies while being happy to castigate the No side for the same offence.

Nothing necessarily wrong with that and I'm fine with it.

In other words I'm biased to Yes and your biased to no.

Glad we cleared that up.

[boabinoban]

Also the EU s desire to avoid secession movements is obvious and nothing at all to do with the UK or Scotland.

The last thing the EU wants is for more nation states to emerge

So f**k? Scotland is worth FAR mre to the EU than Romania and the like would ever be.

[boabinoban]

And you have no intention if keeping Yes honest and will willfully and intentionally ignore Yes lies while being happy to castigate the No side for the same offence.

Nothing necessarily wrong with that and I'm fine with it.

Do you have any arguments as to why we shouldn't vote for independence or are you just another one of these stonewalling types?

[Confidemus]

50,000 posts.

FIFTY.

THOUSAND.

f**k me.

[Tryfield]

Andrew Neil saying Eck is shying away from an interview. I think he's got Nippy Nicola next week though.

[Ad Lib]

This afternoon's exchanges are instructive because Renton, one of the more reasonable Yes figures on the forum, has admitted an essential truth. No one here is under any obligation to be even handed in the way they choose to intervene in the debate, nor do they have to give equal time and weight, as an individual, to each side in the criticisms they make.

This being an essential truth, we then have to ask how do we make sure, collectively, that Pie and Bovril is sufficiently thorough and balanced in its interrogation of the totality of claims made about independence and unionism on this forum, given how vastly unrepresentative of the Scottish public as a whole we are in being more male, more white, more ethnically Scottish and more politically pro independence.

Do we achieve this balance by giving the Yes campaign a free ride and unrelentingly hectoring Unionism for the sake of it, or do we relentlessly attack the cause that is peddling hundreds of lies, not credible statements and inadvertent but malicious untruths, but which is getting absolutely no scrutiny on those same said lies.

I choose to be relentlessly critical of the SNP, the Yes Campaign and Yes posters not because I am pro Union, but because what is claimed by people like oaksoft, Confidemus, BaxterParp, Burma, Jamaldo and the rest of the Clown Collective an accepted as #fact is offensive to any objective onlooker and perpetuates a debate of exceptionalism and misinformation. I do not value such a debate and want nothing to do with a campaign that buys into such a philosophy, even though I am voting Yes.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

YES campaign has been far better than the No side so far.

NO have sat back and let the media do their job for them while YES has had a far bigger grassroots support. I can still see the gap closing before the vote and Mr Murdoch's front pages on voting day may well see some minds changed. YES may have lost some votes merely through their supporters' attitudes towards NO and DK's.

Prediction:

Yes 43% No 57%

Turnout 81%

EDIT, Too generous to NO earlier.

I have made the exact same prediction.

If Yes get anything less than 40% then the knives will be out - some bitter recriminations and buck-passing.

Yes's biggest problem is that it has never really got over that it is a broad campaign and not just an SNP campaign.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

This afternoon's exchanges are instructive because Renton, one of the more reasonable Yes figures on the forum, has admitted an essential truth. No one here is under any obligation to be even handed in the way they choose to intervene in the debate, nor do they have to give equal time and weight, as an individual, to each side in the criticisms they make.

This being an essential truth, we then have to ask how do we make sure, collectively, that Pie and Bovril is sufficiently thorough and balanced in its interrogation of the totality of claims made about independence and unionism on this forum, given how vastly unrepresentative of the Scottish public as a whole we are in being more male, more white, more ethnically Scottish and more politically pro independence.

Do we achieve this balance by giving the Yes campaign a free ride and unrelentingly hectoring Unionism for the sake of it, or do we relentlessly attack the cause that is peddling hundreds of lies, not credible statements and inadvertent but malicious untruths, but which is getting absolutely no scrutiny on those same said lies.

I choose to be relentlessly critical of the SNP, the Yes Campaign and Yes posters not because I am pro Union, but because what is claimed by people like oaksoft, Confidemus, BaxterParp, Burma, Jamaldo and the rest of the Clown Collective an accepted as #fact is offensive to any objective onlooker and perpetuates a debate of exceptionalism and misinformation. I do not value such a debate and want nothing to do with a campaign that buys into such a philosophy, even though I am voting Yes.

Word salad. I switched off after "This afternoon's . . ."

[Confidemus]

. I do not value such a debate and want nothing to do with a campaign that buys into such a philosophy, even though I am voting Yes.

Do one then, you supercilious, white knighting, toadying little frigger.

[Tryfield]

If Yes get anything less than 40% then the knives will be out - some bitter recriminations and buck-passing.

Totally agree. Massive fall-outs all over the place, finger pointing, resignations, party allegiances swapped and general mayhem.

I hope the public just shrug their shoulders and get on with living in harmony. They know another referendum, better prepared, can always happen in a few years time.

[ecto]

Totally agree. Massive fall-outs all over the place, finger pointing, resignations, party allegiances swapped and general mayhem.

I hope the public just shrug their shoulders and get on with living in harmony. They know another referendum, better prepared, can always happen in a few years time.

there will not be an other referendum for a generation if the Yes vote is 40% or under, that is a fact

[ecto]

^ Not a fact.

as close as

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Em, no. It's an opinion.

Meanwhile the data sets are in for the TNS poll and it shows YES actually climbed 3 points.

Yes 32.2% (+2.6)

No 45.6% (+3.2)

If you round figures - but No increased by more - more than half a per cent.

[ecto]

Em, no. It's an opinion.

Meanwhile the data sets are in for the TNS poll and it shows YES actually climbed 3 points.

Yes 32.2% (+2.6)

No 45.6% (+3.2)

If you believe that, if Yes is "beat like a drum" in September, the SNP win the 2016 Scottish Election, you cannot believe we will doing this again in 2020 or about, can you?, really

[invergowrie arab]

This afternoon's exchanges are instructive because Renton, one of the more reasonable Yes figures on the forum, has admitted an essential truth. No one here is under any obligation to be even handed in the way they choose to intervene in the debate, nor do they have to give equal time and weight, as an individual, to each side in the criticisms they make.

This being an essential truth, we then have to ask how do we make sure, collectively, that Pie and Bovril is sufficiently thorough and balanced in its interrogation of the totality of claims made about independence and unionism on this forum, given how vastly unrepresentative of the Scottish public as a whole we are in being more male, more white, more ethnically Scottish and more politically pro independence.

Do we achieve this balance by giving the Yes campaign a free ride and unrelentingly hectoring Unionism for the sake of it, or do we relentlessly attack the cause that is peddling hundreds of lies, not credible statements and inadvertent but malicious untruths, but which is getting absolutely no scrutiny on those same said lies.

I choose to be relentlessly critical of the SNP, the Yes Campaign and Yes posters not because I am pro Union, but because what is claimed by people like oaksoft, Confidemus, BaxterParp, Burma, Jamaldo and the rest of the Clown Collective an accepted as #fact is offensive to any objective onlooker and perpetuates a debate of exceptionalism and misinformation. I do not value such a debate and want nothing to do with a campaign that buys into such a philosophy, even though I am voting Yes.

Hero.

I'm in tears at the selflessness and dignity with which you carry your burden.

[LongTimeLurker]

The key is more whether there is a majority for independence at Holyrood rather than whether the SNP gets most seats. The first time around in 2007 the SNP didn't get an outright majority and that's more likely to be the norm than the 2011 scenario. The d'Hondt system was designed to make a majority very difficult to obtain and a lot of No voters who backed the SNP to keep Labour out in 2011 (I'd fall into that category) will be a lot more wary about doing it in future, so I wouldn't bet on their being another referendum any time soon.

[Broccoli Dog]

Lay off Ad Lib, he's alright for a VL.

[I'm Brian]

This afternoon's exchanges are instructive because Renton, one of the more reasonable Yes figures on the forum, has admitted an essential truth. No one here is under any obligation to be even handed in the way they choose to intervene in the debate, nor do they have to give equal time and weight, as an individual, to each side in the criticisms they make.

This being an essential truth, we then have to ask how do we make sure, collectively, that Pie and Bovril is sufficiently thorough and balanced in its interrogation of the totality of claims made about independence and unionism on this forum, given how vastly unrepresentative of the Scottish public as a whole we are in being more male, more white, more ethnically Scottish and more politically pro independence.

Do we achieve this balance by giving the Yes campaign a free ride and unrelentingly hectoring Unionism for the sake of it, or do we relentlessly attack the cause that is peddling hundreds of lies, not credible statements and inadvertent but malicious untruths, but which is getting absolutely no scrutiny on those same said lies.

I choose to be relentlessly critical of the SNP, the Yes Campaign and Yes posters not because I am pro Union, but because what is claimed by people like oaksoft, Confidemus, BaxterParp, Burma, Jamaldo and the rest of the Clown Collective an accepted as #fact is offensive to any objective onlooker and perpetuates a debate of exceptionalism and misinformation. I do not value such a debate and want nothing to do with a campaign that buys into such a philosophy, even though I am voting Yes.

Just because you think you are right all of the time, really does not mean that you are right all of the time.

I try and not resort to this kind of thing, but that last paragraph is self righteous nonsense. None of us are 100% correct. Not one. You are critical of the SNP and Yes campaign fair enough, but sometimes to the point where you turn into the opposite of what you are criticising here. It's not difficult to understand why posters doubt your Yes voting stance. Perhaps if you put as much effort into highlighting the obvious flaws in the No arguments, people might start believing you.

[harry94]

The key is more whether there is a majority for independence at Holyrood rather than whether the SNP gets most seats. The first time around in 2007 the SNP didn't get an outright majority and that's more likely to be the norm than the 2011 scenario. The d'Hondt system was designed to make a majority very difficult to obtain and a lot of No voters who backed the SNP to keep Labour out in 2011 (I'd fall into that category) will be a lot more wary about doing it in future, so I wouldn't bet on their being another referendum any time soon.

One way it could happen is if the Green Party continue to poll well and become the 3rd biggest party.