Ludo*1 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Had a look at the odds on independence and see that the bookies have a 'Yes' vote out as far as 5/1. Made me feel a little bit less confident. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Had a look at the odds on independence and see that the bookies have a 'Yes' vote out as far as 5/1. Made me feel a little bit less confident. 11/2 with Betfred. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 47% yes in a poll today 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 47% yes in a poll today As I alluded to earlier with my promise of ignoring the polls unless they said something beneficial about Yes - Yaaaas! Mon Scotland, we can do this! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I would say it's all down to the last 6 weeks campaigning where it's going to get a lot more intense. Don't think anything major will change till the start of August - which isn't that far away. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I would say it's all down to the last 6 weeks campaigning where it's going to get a lot more intense. Don't think anything major will change till the start of August - which isn't that far away. You keep moving this gamechanging period. How many attempts have you had now to claim that the campaign hasn't really started until... I look forward to your post in September telling us that only the last week of campaigning will make a difference. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 You keep moving this gamechanging period. How many attempts have you had now to claim that the campaign hasn't really started until... I look forward to your post in September telling us that only the last week of campaigning will make a difference. Not at all. The No camp just can't shake off the Yes threat despite the massive backing of the Brit media. Remember the days of the forecasts of 70-30 to the No side? Remember the days when they were saying the SNP won't even have a referendum because they had no chance of winning? Momentum has been building since those days and Yes will win the vote on 18th September of that I'm supremely confident will happen. I merely mention the last 6 weeks as it's going to get intense and pollsters who differ will need to realign results as the big day gets nearer or some organisation is going to look ridiculous when the result is confirmed 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 About a year age I was tempted to 'do a cup final' and bet on Yes to win, but now it looks like I would just be throwing my money away. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Remember the days of the forecasts of 70-30 to the No side? Eh, no. I don't. Got any evidence of these forecasts? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 It should be noted that the survation polls are commissioned by the Better Nation website (basically another wings over Scotland) It continues the trend of undecideds starting to make up their minds, and doing so in the same proportion as the already convinced voters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 pollsters who differ will need to realign results as the big day gets nearer or some organisation is going to look ridiculous when the result is confirmed All of them predict No to win. I don't think anyone is going to look ridiculous. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 All of them predict No to win. I don't think anyone is going to look ridiculous. Even if Yes do lose, someone is going to look ridiculous: as a professional pollster trying to drum up business, being innacurate to the tune of 15 points or more is probably not a great advert for you. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Even if Yes do lose, someone is going to look ridiculous: as a professional pollster trying to drum up business, being innacurate to the tune of 15 points or more is probably not a great advert for you. Who is going to be inaccurate to the tune of 15 points or more, if say No win 52/48? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Although the Daily Record poll is showing YES at 47 im no gonna be looking into it to much or getting overly pleased. Lot of first time voters to come out the woodwork for this. Not looking too much into the polls. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Who is going to be inaccurate to the tune of 15 points or more, if say No win 52/48? Some pollster has the No lead in the range of 4-5 points, other pollsters have it in the range of 14-16 points. Clearly, both can't be right and if it were a 52/48 No win, then the first group are the more accurate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Although the Daily Record poll is showing YES at 47 im no gonna be looking into it to much or getting overly pleased. Lot of first time voters to come out the woodwork for this. Not looking too much into the polls. No went up by the same amount, DKs starting to get squeezed and it's splitting 50/50 at best. Not great. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 53:47 was the same split as last time with Survation with Don't Knows excluded. What is more interesting is that both camps went up 2 points. The No camp need only keep all existing voters and hope the they get at least just under 1/3 of remaining DKs. That would give them an unassailable lead. Given DKs appear to be splitting evenly at the moment, this means even the most favourable Yes polls are implying game over unless Yes start to pull No voters back into the undecided camp and pronto. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I don't think anyone is going to look ridiculous. Except you, of course. I remain supremeley confident of Scotland pulling it's head out it's arse and voting Yes on 18 September. I await the usual derisory mewlings from the keyboard warrior collective. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Last six weeks is going to be a white knuckle ride! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 If Yes really is at 47% then this is statistically neck and neck. What an idiot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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