Hedgecutter Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 These opinion polls - where exactly are they taken (generally)? I wonder as it's pretty obvious that different parts of the country vote for different parties with SNP being particularly popular further north (albeit Highlands being Lib Dem country). I can only imagine that if they took a poll on Princes Street then you're going to get a much more Unionist backing than if you took say the whole population of Moray. Aberdeen in general is absolutely packed with English who (half-understandably) appear to have an incredible bias towards BT and Glasgow is packed with Rangers fans who judging by P&B and general experience also seem biased towards BT (not a surprise really). Basically, do folk feel that the current 60/40 polls are fully representative of the country as a whole or will it realistically cut closer to 50/50 if they start including places that city based journalists find it a faff to get to? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Yeah... I believe they just ask the 1000 people who live closest to their HQs. If IPSOS for example was based in Nairn we d have really different results. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 These opinion polls - where exactly are they taken (generally)? I wonder as it's pretty obvious that different parts of the country vote for different parties with SNP being particularly popular further north (albeit Highlands being Lib Dem country). I can only imagine that if they took a poll on Princes Street then you're going to get a much more Unionist backing than if you took say the whole population of Moray. Aberdeen in general is absolutely packed with English who (half-understandably) appear to have an incredible bias towards BT and Glasgow is packed with Rangers fans who judging by P&B and general experience also seem biased towards BT (not a surprise really). Basically, do folk feel that the current 60/40 polls are fully representative of the country as a whole or will it realistically cut closer to 50/50 if they start including places that city based journalists find it a faff to get to? If you look at the tables for most polls they break down how many people from each region were surveyed. It would be hugely stupid for the polling companies to publish polls that had been taken locally and extrapolate national trends from them. Polling companies are businesses and their business depends on accurately predicting results of elections etc. If the polls stay 60-40 for No and the vote is Yes then it'll be the biggest disaster for the pollsters in modern history, worse than the 1992 general election. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 (edited) Yeah... I believe they just ask the 1000 people who live closest to their HQs. If IPSOS for example was based in Nairn we d have really different results. It was more of a genuine question rather than a rhetorical one with me effectively saying "I think it will be closer and this is why". I do actually think that Nairn would be different from the cities, just not drastically though. Edit: ICTChris' post is far more useful, cheers. I wasn't sure if we were talking about some media body out on the streets. Edited August 15, 2014 by Hedgecutter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 It was more of a genuine question rather than a rhetorical one with me effectively saying "I think it will be closer and this is why". I do actually think that Nairn would be different from the cities, just not drastically though. Edit: ICTChris' post is far more useful, cheers. Your post displayed a staggering level of stupidity. Polling is incredibly complex. That you seem to think its journalists asking randoms in the street is astonishing. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Your post displayed a staggering level of stupidity. Polling is incredibly complex. That you seem to think its journalists asking randoms in the street is astonishing. If you look at things like the Press and Journal, they do actually take their own surveys around Aberdeen and publish articles about the majority of Aberdonians wanting to stay in the UK. Granted I should know more on the subject, but that's why I was asking in the first place!!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 If you look at things like the Press and Journal, they do actually take their own surveys around Aberdeen and publish articles about the majority of Aberdonians wanting to stay in the UK. Granted I should know more on the subject, but that's why I was asking in the first place!!! You need to separate out proper polling from a vetted organisation and private polling. Local newspapers, p and b, radical independence can all return bizarre results as there is no weighting or any proper methodology involved. These polls are useless. Can only really look at companies who are professional and recognised by the professional body. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Fair dos. All I ever see is mention of the 'latest polls' which doesn't differentiate between professional ones and a collection of the local ones. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Your post displayed a staggering level of stupidity. Polling is incredibly complex. That you seem to think its journalists asking randoms in the street is astonishing. I don't think it display stupidity, he clearly simply didn't know how polls work. He isn't the only one, I've had similar questions from friends of mine who aren't overly political and haven't spent much time thinking about it or finding out. Nothing wrong with not knowing something so asking people who do know. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 If you look at things like the Press and Journal, they do actually take their own surveys around Aberdeen and publish articles about the majority of Aberdonians wanting to stay in the UK. Granted I should know more on the subject, but that's why I was asking in the first place!!! Most local newspaper "polls" tend to be unvetted ticky-box affairs with all the validity of a North Korean election result. We all know they get hijacked especially by multi-voting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Agreed. Once the seethe is over we can look forward to the future as part of the UK. Hopefully the losing Yes activists stay politically active at a local or national level Not quite how I see the future after a Yes vote - cannae wait!!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Really looking forward to the vote now too. Going to be amusing for a few days after. Good times ahead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Really looking forward to the vote now too. Going to be amusing for a few days after. Good times ahead. Indeed. It's going to be most humorous seeing the snivelling wreck you'll become. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Really looking forward to the vote now too. Going to be amusing for a few days after. Good times ahead. I predict multiple debates on how long a 'generation' is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I predict multiple debates on how long a 'generation' is. I have Confidemus and Colkitto neck-and-neck as the first to post the tear-stained "Well, you got what you wished for . Foodbanks, wastelands, generations of children without shoes..... dont ever ever EVER complain about anything else EVER now" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Yeah... I believe they just ask the 1000 people who live closest to their HQs. If IPSOS for example was based in Nairn we d have really different results. Cheaper and quicker that way. You only pay for a local call and you don't need the dialling code. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Basically, do folk feel that the current 60/40 polls are fully representative of the country as a whole or will it realistically cut closer to 50/50 if they start including places that city based journalists find it a faff to get to? I doubt the current polling is wrong due to something as stupid as not taking representative samples. All of the major polling groups' known biases pull them in the direction of No for one reason or another (not meant as an attack - every pollster has a bias of some sort, which is why poll aggregation is a thing) and that hopefully means that the overall result is closer, but I doubt it's due to YouGov only having polled Larkhall for instance. In a former life I worked for Mori, mind, and at the time could well believe that the country consisted entirely of devil-dug-owning bigots and elderly Asian women that didn't speak much English. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I doubt the current polling is wrong due to something as stupid as not taking representative samples. All of the major polling groups' known biases pull them in the direction of No for one reason or another (not meant as an attack - every pollster has a bias of some sort, which is why poll aggregation is a thing) and that hopefully means that the overall result is closer, but I doubt it's due to YouGov only having polled Larkhall for instance. In a former life I worked for Mori, mind, and at the time could well believe that the country consisted entirely of devil-dug-owning bigots and elderly Asian women that didn't speak much English. Mori's offices in Scotland are down by the Shore in Edinburgh so their sample will consist of bearded hipsters and psycho junkies from the banana flats. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Mori's offices in Scotland are down by the Shore in Edinburgh so their sample will consist of bearded hipsters and psycho junkies from the banana flats. They have these telephone things now, allowing them to reach people out of earshot of Leith Links. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I have Confidemus and Colkitto neck-and-neck as the first to post the tear-stained "Well, you got what you wished for . Foodbanks, wastelands, generations of children without shoes..... dont ever ever EVER complain about anything else EVER now" If it was a No result, you're pretty much spot on there with that post. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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