doulikefish Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Make up your mind because frankly you are coming across as a bit clueless.. He is right though,more small bets have went on yes and more cash has went on a no vote, ie 100 bets at 10 quid on yes and 1 bet of 50k on no 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 The polls are the only thing the No side have going for them. It would be absolutely dreadful if they were to turn against them as well. Where's Lex with his expert analysis? At least thepundit has showed himself (albeit with a piss-poor climbdown i.e. "the gap was always going to decrease"), but I think it's right we get the thread-starter's view on this poll which was supposed to be another nail in Yes' coffin. I think as oaksoft alluded to, you can't trust any of them as their so different. The Panelbase one which puts Yes just 4% behind and the YouGov ones which blatantly take the piss and say No are going to romp it contradict eachother so badly that some of the polls are definitely wrong. Which ones? We don't know. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Is this a serious question? Bookies odds don't follow likelihood of victory, they follow the numbers of people betting on one outcome or another. If enough people were betting on Yes it would show a Yes win as an odds on bet despite the polls being the other way round. Christ almighty. What the hell do they teach kids at schools these days? Is that a serious answer? 58.38% of bets placed (according to Oddschecker.com) have been placed on a Yes vote, that's the total number of bets not the total value. Does that suggest that the Big money is therefore being lumped on a No Vote? See for yourself then come back and explain how your logic is correct? http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome Cheers http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 The polls are the only thing the No side have going for them. It would be absolutely dreadful if they were to turn against them as well. Where's Lex with his expert analysis? At least thepundit has showed himself (albeit with a piss-poor climbdown i.e. "the gap was always going to decrease"), but I think it's right we get the thread-starter's view on this poll which was supposed to be another nail in Yes' coffin. I think as oaksoft alluded to, you can't trust any of them as their so different. The Panelbase one which puts Yes just 4% behind and the YouGov ones which blatantly take the piss and say No are going to romp it contradict eachother so badly that some of the polls are definitely wrong. Which ones? We don't know. Rattled With what, four and a bit weeks to go, no has been ahead in every single poll, even in ones commissioned by the yes campaign and conducted by pro yes pollsters. What would the yes campaigners have said had you told them that in May 2012, when the campaigns were launched? That with a month and a day to go to the referendum yes would be losing in every single poll. As I've said since halfway thorough last year, it's over, and it's now simply a question of how much we are going to win by. 45% would be a decent result for yes and maybe they will get that, they certainly won't win though, hate to burst your bubble. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Rattled With what, four and a bit weeks to go, no has been ahead in every single poll, even in ones commissioned by the yes campaign and conducted by pro yes pollsters. What would the yes campaigners have said had you told them that in May 2012, when the campaigns were launched? That with a month and a day to go to the referendum yes would be losing in every single poll. As I've said since halfway thorough last year, it's over, and it's now simply a question of how much we are going to win by. 45% would be a decent result for yes and maybe they will get that, they certainly won't win though, hate to burst your bubble. Last year 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 Last year And I will be proved right next month It became clear last year that despite a year of yes campaigning and millions of pounds of the Weirs money spent, the Scottish people weren't interested. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 See my post above. The bookies are placing odds by following the total amount of money placed. They are not trying to predict the outcome of the vote. If you don't show a modicum of understanding of this basic principle this is going to be a short conversation my friend. To be clear, I have almost no patience for idiots. It's admittedly a character flaw of mine but there it is. ''If enough people were betting on Yes it would show a Yes win as an odds on bet despite the polls being the other way round'' Your words not mine!! I think its clear from the above quote that its you my friend who doesn't understand the difference between the value of the market and the total number of bets placed on it. I believe you do now however... & you're most welcome. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 lex and oaksoft really need to go to the quick question thread in the gambling forum 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 And I will be proved right next month It became clear last year that despite a year of yes campaigning and millions of pounds of the Weirs money spent, the Scottish people weren't interested. You're just Gideon and David's special little soldier aren't you? Bless. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scothmist Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Rattled With what, four and a bit weeks to go, no has been ahead in every single poll, even in ones commissioned by the yes campaign and conducted by pro yes pollsters. What would the yes campaigners have said had you told them that in May 2012, when the campaigns were launched? That with a month and a day to go to the referendum yes would be losing in every single poll. As I've said since halfway thorough last year, it's over, and it's now simply a question of how much we are going to win by. 45% would be a decent result for yes and maybe they will get that, they certainly won't win though, hate to burst your bubble. The first haggis hopes the separatists will win, but is deluded. To keep the neverendum going he needs 40%, and that is all he can hope for. Less than that and he's offal -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 (edited) The first haggis hopes the separatists will win, but is deluded. To keep the neverendum going he needs 40%, and that is all he can hope for. Less than that and he's offal Hey look at this guy. Awww, did you type that yourself? You're such a big boy. Edited August 17, 2014 by HaikuHibee 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 He is right though,more small bets have went on yes and more cash has went on a no vote, ie 100 bets at 10 quid on yes and 1 bet of 50k on no Higher odds on YES = bigger pay out. No? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Higher odds on YES = bigger pay out. No? Bigger odds reflect the probability of it happening. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scothmist Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Hey look at this guy. Awww, did you type that yourself? You're such a big boy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forza ton Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 And I will be proved right next month It became clear last year that despite a year of yes campaigning and millions of pounds of the Weirs money spent, the Scottish people weren't interested. Oh the Scottish people are interested all right. Have no doubt about that. The only thing stopping a landslide yes is scumbag better together politicians and their press corps and tv pals terrifying pensioners etc into denying themselves democracy. It's the great shame of our age and you know it along with the rest of your sort. 60 - 40 YES 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Latest panelbase poll shows No 52 and Yes 48 with UD taken out or 46 ,42 and 12 with. Yes ahead with men 52 - 48 http://www.yesscotland.net/news/new-poll-shows-referendum-knife-edge 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 It has been too close to call for ages now, these polls just confirm this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tio Pepe Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Oh the Scottish people are interested all right. Have no doubt about that. The only thing stopping a landslide yes is scumbag better together politicians and their press corps and tv pals terrifying pensioners etc into denying themselves democracy. It's the great shame of our age and you know it along with the rest of your sort. 60 - 40 YES Denying themselves democracy? Utter scaremongering nonsense. The UK will continue to be one of the world's great democracies after a no vote. If you seriously believe otherwise you need to seek either education or medical help. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Denying themselves democracy? Utter scaremongering nonsense. The UK will continue to be one of the world's great democracies after a no vote. If you seriously believe otherwise you need to seek either education or medical help. Great democracies? Along with who? The US? Don't make me laugh. The number of people who are giving up on politics in this country (and even more so in the US) show that our 'democracies' are in serious trouble. Scottish independence may give us a shot in the arm but we would need to work very hard in this country to break that trend. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 The UK will continue to be one of the world's great democracies after a no vote. All aboard the roflcopter! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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