ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 It's not disgraceful. Disgraceful is a word that could be applied to the two-faced attitudes of those complaining about Scotland not having rhe government they voted for in Westminster whilst ignoring the same applies for most Scots with Holyrood. At least Westminster has a committee system that has the gumption to hold the executive to account and a second chamber to scrutinise legislation. We'll be able to set up our parliament the way we want it shortly, pleasing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Well, well, I've been saying for weeks and months that polling companies will need to align their results as they vary too much from each other. As we know there are polling companies that show the Yes vote in the high 40's and others that show the Yes vote in the mid to low 30's. As I've said they can't all be right as there is too big a gap. Reputations are at risk for the polling company that gets it wrong as we near the big day. So who is on the move today? It's YouGov, who have been polling the Yes vote quite low over the last 2 years. They released a poll for the Times today showing a rise in the Yes vote by 4%! Yes folks that's a rise of 4% in a week! If that trend continues the Yes vote could win by about 58% All predicted of course and I would imagine Ipos will be the next to show a rise in their polling come nearer the date.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 All predicted of course and I would imagine Ipos will be the next to show a rise in their polling come nearer the date.. Yep, I predicted the same thing. No are going to win by around 6-10%. Any poll showing a great deal more than that needs to align itself. We'll go into referendum day with the polls, exluding DKs showing around 53-47. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Lol? Are you 12? I fully understand what democratic deficit means. Holyrood are a perfect example - no second chamber, misuse of the committee system. 44% riding roughshod over the other 56%. Who are you blaming for the lack of a second chamber? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tio Pepe Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 (edited) Who are you blaming for the lack of a second chamber? I don't believe I was blaming anyone. Edited August 18, 2014 by Tio Pepe 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Yep, I predicted the same thing. No are going to win by around 6-10%. Any poll showing a great deal more than that needs to align itself. We'll go into referendum day with the polls, exluding DKs showing around 53-47. And we'll come out of it 40 something 50 something with the DK's still in the house waiting for armageddon. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 And we'll come out of it 40 something 50 something with the DK's still in the house waiting for armageddon. Well, the turnout will be 70-80%. Most likely 70-75% based on the current odds. Which is pretty healthy. Must be a record for a Scottish vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 (edited) Well, the turnout will be 70-80%. Most likely 70-75% based on the current odds. Which is pretty healthy. Must be a record for a Scottish vote. As I've bullishly stated it will be 90%, I do feel that it will be a record, we've went from most people stating it will be 60 or 70% to most people thinking it will be 80%, I still think my estimate will be quite close to the actual, the electorate are rising from their slumber. Edited August 18, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 As I've bullishly stated it will be 90%, I do feel that it will be a record, we've went from most people stating it will be 60 or 70% to most people thinking it will be 80%, I still think my estimate will be quite close to the actual, the electorate are rising from their slumber. Mmm, i have my doubts. There will still be a large "can't be arsed" contingent. I reckon 72%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 (edited) Mmm, i have my doubts. There will still be a large "can't be arsed" contingent. I reckon 72%. I'm not here to ease your doubts, I'm just giving my opinion, those that stated 60 and 65% are already away into the wilderness. I do think our estimates are probably both at the extremes of the turnout. Edited August 18, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I do think our estimates are probably both at the extremes of the turnout. I think anything over 70% will be a pretty spectacular turnout. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I think anything over 70% will be a pretty spectacular turnout. Over 80% for me to feel the same. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I don't believe I was blaming anyone. If it's not a problem, then why mention it? If it is a problem, who's to blame? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Given the confidence of the Yes voters on here, why do ALL recent polls (2014) suggest a No Vote (admittedly some with a wider/tighter margin than others)? I guess they've all got their different means of testing opinion, demographics/voter profile, age group, numbers polled, wording of the question posed etc. etc... Why does the predicted result always return a NO.? Serious Question, just why are the pollsters consistently getting it wrong in your view? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Given the confidence of the Yes voters on here, why do ALL recent polls (2014) suggest a No Vote (admittedly some with a wider/tighter margin than others)? I guess they've all got their different means of testing opinion, demographics/voter profile, age group, numbers polled, wording of the question posed etc. etc... Why does the predicted result always return a NO.? Serious Question, just why are the pollsters consistently getting it wrong in your view? The same reasons they've all got it wrong in previous elections at Holyrood and Westminster. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Given the confidence of the Yes voters on here, why do ALL recent polls (2014) suggest a No Vote (admittedly some with a wider/tighter margin than others)? I guess they've all got their different means of testing opinion, demographics/voter profile, age group, numbers polled, wording of the question posed etc. etc... Why does the predicted result always return a NO.? Serious Question, just why are the pollsters consistently getting it wrong in your view? For starters, 2011. Secondly, as I alluded to earlier, everything I've heard about the grassroots (and I mean real grassroots, not BT's Tory millionaire funded grassroots) Yes movement is particularly encouraging. Yes are engaging with people on the streets and town halls to a level No can only dream of. No are shitting out of debates as well. I'm getting more confident of a win for the good guys. (That's Yes btw, smart arses) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tio Pepe Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 If it's not a problem, then why mention it? If it is a problem, who's to blame?You appear to be struggling. It was mentioned in the course of a discussion. I don't feel the need to point the finger of blame at people when I discuss something. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 For starters, 2011. Secondly, as I alluded to earlier, everything I've heard about the grassroots (and I mean real grassroots, not BT's Tory millionaire funded grassroots) Yes movement is particularly encouraging. Yes are engaging with people on the streets and town halls to a level No can only dream of. No are shitting out of debates as well. I'm getting more confident of a win for the good guys. (That's Yes btw, smart arses) But surely the Pollsters are engaging with the Grassroot support of both camps 'on the street' too, whether its YouGov or Panelbase? Where are they getting their data from? Why are they so wide of the mark on what you and others on here are so supremely confident of? They can't all be Tory funded PR stunts? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tio Pepe Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 But surely the Pollsters are engaging with the Grassroot support of both camps 'on the street' too, whether its YouGov or Panelbase? Where are they getting their data from? Why are they so wide of the mark on what you and others on here are so supremely confident of? They can't all be Tory funded PR stunts? Didn't you know everything is the fault of the Tories? Their millionaires are much less worthy then SNP millionaires. I thought everyone knew that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 But surely the Pollsters are engaging with the Grassroot support of both camps 'on the street' too, whether its YouGov or Panelbase? Where are they getting their data from? Why are they so wide of the mark on what you and others on here are so supremely confident of? They can't all be Tory funded PR stunts? When I say engaging, I don't mean polls. I mean speaking to actual voters in the streets and in town halls. I have no idea how polls are conducted, but I would imagine a lot are over the telephone. They're not SO wide of the mark. Panelbase has it as 53% 47% with the DK's chucked to f**k. Which is very doable. Didn't you know everything is the fault of the Tories? Their millionaires are much less worthy then SNP millionaires. I thought everyone knew that. Yeah cos it's exactly the same to compare Colin & Chris Weir and their transparent donation to a English Tory funded Vote No Borders campain trying to pretend it was grassroots. Oh and pretty much everything is the fault of the Tories. And Johann Lamont. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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