Thumper Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I guess they've all got their different means of testing opinion, demographics/voter profile, age group, numbers polled, wording of the question posed etc. etc... Why does the predicted result always return a NO.? Serious Question, just why are the pollsters consistently getting it wrong in your view? It's a generally accepted part of polling theory that all pollsters have biases. If a poll consistently returned results perfectly in line with the eventual outcome, that pollster would quickly gain a monopoly on the polling market. YouGov and PanelBase have something like a 10% disparity at present; they can't both be right. National pollsters have historically underestimated the nationalist / SNP vote for whatever reason. In the case of YouGov in particular, it has a very clear historical bias in favour of Labour. It'd be brilliant if we had our own locally-based equivalent of FiveThirtyEight (a professional statistician with a solid understanding of local polling and the ability to model for these biases). Unfortunately FiveThirtyEight is hopelessly US-centric and their prediction record in the UK has been miserable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 It's a generally accepted part of polling theory that all pollsters have biases. If a poll consistently returned results perfectly in line with the eventual outcome, that pollster would quickly gain a monopoly on the polling market. YouGov and PanelBase have something like a 10% disparity at present; they can't both be right. National pollsters have historically underestimated the nationalist / SNP vote for whatever reason. In the case of YouGov in particular, it has a very clear historical bias in favour of Labour. It'd be brilliant if we had our own locally-based equivalent of FiveThirtyEight (a professional statistician with a solid understanding of local polling and the ability to model for these biases). Unfortunately FiveThirtyEight is hopelessly US-centric and their prediction record in the UK has been miserable. That's fair enough mate, but if there really was a huge groundswell of emerging opinion supporting a Yes vote, surely at least some of the polls would show them (Yes) with a lead, even taking a percentage bias into consideration. That just hasn't happened? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 (edited) That's fair enough mate, but if there really was a huge groundswell of emerging opinion supporting a Yes vote, surely at least some of the polls would show them (Yes) with a lead, even taking a percentage bias into consideration. That just hasn't happened? It's a logical fallacy that the ultimate outcome has to be reflected by some average of the polls. In 2011 only three surveys ever predicted the SNP's eventual 45% share of the vote, one of which was taken 36 hours before the polls opened and the other two of which were outliers. YouGov polled the day before the election and was nearly four points off the result. Nobody ever predicted anything beyond their eventual total, making the outcome of the election an outlier on every existing poll. In this case, there are a number of additional significant factors that haven't previously been in play. The first is that turnout is predicted to be record-breaking, and existing polling methodology will by necessity be biased towards those previously considered likely to vote. The second is that 16- and 17-year-olds will be able to vote for the first time, and it won't be at all clear how good the pollsters are at capturing these voters until after the election. The consensus is that both of those groups are going to break for Yes. If either of them breaks more than they're predicted to, that could tip the balance. Edited August 18, 2014 by Thumper 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 (edited) The same reasons they've all got it wrong in previous elections at Holyrood and Westminster. The pollsters got the 2011 vote almost exactly right, prior to the election day. Likewise the last General Election. In fact with the GE, polling was scarily accurate. Edited August 18, 2014 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10 CC ICT Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 There is no limit. You can place as many bets as you want on NO winning. Obviously more money has been lashed onto NO to win. Just telling like! More individual bets on a yes win though. So more yes votes? Pleasing 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 More individual bets on a yes win though. So more yes votes? Pleasing I bet on Blackburn winning at the weekend. I'm not a Blackburn supporter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 (edited) Noticed a fair change in some people's attitudes recently. Almost everyone in my office were No's and now they're all calling themselves undecided with the most militant, mouthy No of all incredibly moving to Yes. I'm not saying they'll all move to Yes but I don't think it can be underestimated how disengaged a fair chunk of the public have been from this whole referendum. It's only appearing on some folks' radars now. Hoping for a late swing to Yes and some proper Unionist seethe on September 19th. Edited August 18, 2014 by Guest 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The pollsters got the 2011 vote almost exactly right, prior to the election day. Likewise the last General Election. In fact with the GE, polling was scarily accurate. No they didn't get the 2011 vote almost exactly right, they got close on occasions near voting day. As for Westminster, one swallow doesn't make a summer. How many independence referendums have we had for the pollsters to learn from? Do they weight their current polls for the huge number of new voters? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 (edited) Noticed a fair change in some people's attitudes recently. Almost everyone in my office were No's and now they're all calling themselves undecided with the most militant, mouthy No of all incredibly moving to Yes. I'm not saying they'll all move to Yes but I don't think it can be underestimated how disengaged a fair chunk of the public have been from this whole referendum. It's only appearing on some folks' radars now. Hoping for a late swing to Yes and some proper Unionist seethe on September 19th. That was always going to be the case, we've had to listen to NO wetting their pants about polls conducted for the most part on engaged voters for ages now. Edited August 18, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 An independence referendum has never been had before. It's like a game between 2 football teams who nobody has saw play before, everyone has been told one side has the better players so should comfortably win. The truth is nobody will know what the actual support or feeling about Scotland being independent until the 3.5 million Scots or whatever it will be head in on the day. I'll be honest and say I'm not confident but you never know and it'll be an interesting result on the 19th either way. Independence is quite an exciting prospect and I do not understand why no voters don't see this, what an opportunity. Shame (it seems anyway) that we are going to turn this down. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Yep, I predicted the same thing. No are going to win by around 6-10%. Any poll showing a great deal more than that needs to align itself. We'll go into referendum day with the polls, exluding DKs showing around 53-47. Lets see what the polling companies are saying in the last 2 weeks before the vote. The fact the Yougov are showing a rise of 4% in one week must send a shiver up your spine 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The fact the Yougov are showing a rise of 4% in one week must send a shiver up your spine You are kidding right? The polls are astonishingly impressive for No. At this stage, to be so far ahead, is way above their wildest dreams. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 50,000 posts. Congratulations you fucking dick. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 You are kidding right? The polls are astonishingly impressive for No. At this stage, to be so far ahead, is way above their wildest dreams. If only U KOK weren't shitting themselves so much you might have been right. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 (edited) Yes are engaging with people on the streets and town halls to a level No can only dream of. Going down to Brechin from Aberdeen on Saturday, I saw... Yes campaign: cars covered with yes signage and posters up and down Union St, two giant Yes billboards and a private one on the way down there, Yes signs in Stonehaven, Yes campaigners handing out leaflets in both Inverbervie / Montrose and Yes signs all around the place in Brechin, not to mention the SNP sponsor boards inside the Glebe itself. Better Together: Nothing. I mean, absolutely nothing. You'd think that Yes was going to win by a landslide if you based it on that alone. No doubt that'll play on the minds of some of the undecided voters who follow the 'most popular view must be the best one' mentality. Edited August 18, 2014 by Hedgecutter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 You are kidding right? The polls are astonishingly impressive for No. At this stage, to be so far ahead, is way above their wildest dreams. What the Yougov poll you mean? They appear to be out of kilter with the others and have tried to save it's reputation by giving the Yes a 4% rise in one week. Wonder what made so many people decide to vote yes? Was it the currency union debacle? Was it the great Darling on the STV debate? The No camp were giving each other reach-rounds after the STV debate only to find that today the Yes vote has risen 4% in a week. That's right, in a so called bad couple of weeks for the Yes camp the vote has risen sharply in ONE WEEK. No matter what way you look at it that's very bad news for the No camp. What do they have left to scare the voters with in the crucial 4 week campaign period? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 H_B is doing a very very poor job of concealing the fact that his bum is squeaking like a rusty hinge. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 What the Yougov poll you mean? They appear to be out of kilter with the others and have tried to save it's reputation by giving the Yes a 4% rise in one week. Wonder what made so many people decide to vote yes? Was it the currency union debacle? Was it the great Darling on the STV debate? The No camp were giving each other reach-rounds after the STV debate only to find that today the Yes vote has risen 4% in a week. That's right, in a so called bad couple of weeks for the Yes camp the vote has risen sharply in ONE WEEK. No matter what way you look at it that's very bad news for the No camp. What do they have left to scare the voters with in the crucial 4 week campaign period? Yep. It doesn't quite make sense does it? It could be that they are completely making it up as they go along, but they are professionals, so surely that's not the case. Right? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Yep. It doesn't quite make sense does it? It could be that they are completely making it up as they go along, but they are professionals, so surely that's not the case. Right? Would say it more of a Tory owned company trying to manipulate the polls... with HB being totally taken in by them too! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 H_B is doing a very very poor job of concealing the fact that his bum is squeaking like a rusty hinge. Nah, didn't you hear? He wouldn't be overly bothered in the event of a Yes vote. Not bothered at all. Despite the fact he spends half his life on here defending the Union with every fibre of his being. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.