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Latest Polls and Latest Odds


Lex

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Looks like the SNP didn't want the results of the Panelbase poll they commissioned released until after the Yougov results were released. Which means that the papers went to press with only the news of the one that Yes is winning in. #tactics

Also worth noting that Yougov changed the weighting of the results for their last two polls which may account for some of the supposed "gains" of the last two weeks. This obviously means that they had deemed their pre-August polls to be inaccurate for some reason.

Edited by Tadénator
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48% No, 44% Yes for Panelbase. 52/48 without the DKs.

Panelbase (always derided as Yes' favourite) seem pretty stable, whilst YouGov (derided as BT's favourite) has seen a complete collapse in the No vote.

outlier :)

this evening's news just shows it is all to play for. it should show yes voters it can be done but the panlebase one shows it is not done yet.

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outlier :)

this evening's news just shows it is all to play for. it should show yes voters it can be done but the panlebase one shows it is not done yet.

It definitely is. The gap between each poll is also perfectly feasible.

Survation are due to report next week and I'd guess ICM are too. Will be interesting to see how those have went.

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I'm being told there's been a change in the way YouGov is weighting particularly with reference to Holyrood voting behaviour and that the raw data from this poll isn't much if at all different from the last YouGov one, giving a small lead to No. Anyone able to confirm?

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I'm being told there's been a change in the way YouGov is weighting particularly with reference to Holyrood voting behaviour and that the raw data from this poll isn't much if at all different from the last YouGov one, giving a small lead to No. Anyone able to confirm?

i saw this

https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/508367006601871360

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I'm being told there's been a change in the way YouGov is weighting particularly with reference to Holyrood voting behaviour and that the raw data from this poll isn't much if at all different from the last YouGov one, giving a small lead to No. Anyone able to confirm?

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/are-peter-kellner-and-yougov-yes.html

The "Kellner Correction" mentioned in this article was removed from their methodology in August, explaining in part why their last two polls have shown a seemingly large rise for yes. Basically, their pre-August method differed from standard polling practice so was deemed to be unreliable, so they changed it back to a more standard method.

Edited by Tadénator
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