loyal-blue Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Hearing panelbase 48/52 for no. Still momentum for yes with them though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 48% No, 44% Yes for Panelbase. 52/48 without the DKs. Panelbase (always derided as Yes' favourite) seem pretty stable, whilst YouGov (derided as BT's favourite) has seen a complete collapse in the No vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tadénator Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 (edited) Looks like the SNP didn't want the results of the Panelbase poll they commissioned released until after the Yougov results were released. Which means that the papers went to press with only the news of the one that Yes is winning in. #tactics Also worth noting that Yougov changed the weighting of the results for their last two polls which may account for some of the supposed "gains" of the last two weeks. This obviously means that they had deemed their pre-August polls to be inaccurate for some reason. Edited September 6, 2014 by Tadénator 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 48% No, 44% Yes for Panelbase. 52/48 without the DKs. Panelbase (always derided as Yes' favourite) seem pretty stable, whilst YouGov (derided as BT's favourite) has seen a complete collapse in the No vote. outlier this evening's news just shows it is all to play for. it should show yes voters it can be done but the panlebase one shows it is not done yet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I'm trying hard to keep calm, but my nerves are jangling. If we manage it, I will nurse a semi the likes of which have never been seen. In some ways it was easier when I thought this had no chance. Now I'm nervous. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 (edited) I'm changing my username to Alba Gu Brath if Scotland votes yes. Edited September 6, 2014 by Guest 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 outlier this evening's news just shows it is all to play for. it should show yes voters it can be done but the panlebase one shows it is not done yet. It definitely is. The gap between each poll is also perfectly feasible. Survation are due to report next week and I'd guess ICM are too. Will be interesting to see how those have went. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo Stu Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Am I right in thinking we need 53% for a YES? Still work to do! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo99 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I'm changing my username to Alba Gu Brath if Scotland votes yes. Scotland thanks you. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I'm being told there's been a change in the way YouGov is weighting particularly with reference to Holyrood voting behaviour and that the raw data from this poll isn't much if at all different from the last YouGov one, giving a small lead to No. Anyone able to confirm? -7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo99 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I'm being told there's been a change in the way YouGov is weighting particularly with reference to Holyrood voting behaviour and that the raw data from this poll isn't much if at all different from the last YouGov one, giving a small lead to No. Anyone able to confirm? i saw this https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/508367006601871360 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo99 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Am I right in thinking we need 53% for a YES? Still work to do! How come 53%? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leggy Blonde Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Well well well! Didn't think I'd see YouGov showing a lead for Yes before Panelbase did. Is anybody else's cynical side just a bit suspicious?? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonksy+HisChristianParade Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Heard someone say that they probably hadn't factored in that NO voters were more likely to keep quiet. Epitome of clutching at straws. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Scotland thanks you. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tadénator Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 (edited) I'm being told there's been a change in the way YouGov is weighting particularly with reference to Holyrood voting behaviour and that the raw data from this poll isn't much if at all different from the last YouGov one, giving a small lead to No. Anyone able to confirm? http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/are-peter-kellner-and-yougov-yes.html The "Kellner Correction" mentioned in this article was removed from their methodology in August, explaining in part why their last two polls have shown a seemingly large rise for yes. Basically, their pre-August method differed from standard polling practice so was deemed to be unreliable, so they changed it back to a more standard method. Edited September 6, 2014 by Tadénator 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo Stu Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 How come 53%? Presume it needs to be a clear majority 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Presume it needs to be a clear majority the winning side need 1 vote more 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForzaDundee Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Presume it needs to be a clear majority 50% + 1 is a clear majority no matter which way you look at it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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