renton Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 To be fair, a lot of these first time voters will be voting Yes, but the other big group that polling companies (well internet based ones anyway) struggle to attract ( pensioners) will be voting mainly No. I think the pollsters have caught on to this and the weighting adjustments have brought the result in polls closer to the "true" (IMO) 50-50 figure. I'd say I'm 60% confident of a No victory purely because the last remaining undecideds tend to go for the status quo when pressed for a decision, but if be rather surprised if there's a clear victory for either side. really, I was under the impression that this was a group that never needs much in the way of upweighting, and indeed has been relatively stable across all the pollsters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Political betting chap just tweeted that going by Betfair odds a winning £100 bet on Yes would produce profit of £450, on No £28. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 This might have been covered already, but in the Quebec referendum in 1995 the Yes campaign turned an 8% deficit into a 6% lead in the eight weeks or so before the vote, and then lost it by just over 1% when the vote came in. Obviously it's a different country with different factors at play, but to some degree or another it hints at previously-intended Yes voters opting for the status quo once they got to the ballot box. I'll be voting Yes, but I'm certainly not confident of a win. The polls might be out but they're a better guess at what's happening than most other possibilities, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few last minute No switchers. I reckon it'll pan out something like 46/54 No - close enough to not bury the issue and maybe have another referendum in 20-odd years, but no more than that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'll be voting Yes, but I'm certainly not confident of a win. The polls might be out but they're a better guess at what's happening than most other possibilities, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few last minute No switchers. I reckon it'll pan out something like 46/54 No - close enough to not bury the issue and maybe have another referendum in 20-odd years, but no more than that. I think it will be marginally closer than that - 53/47. I've always had that figure in mind, but I didn't expect us to arrive at it in the same way. I thought Yes would narrow the gap much earlier than they did, but with a far less steep curve than has happened. Will still lead to the same end result, but I saw it more in terms of being this close because many No voters wouldn't bother their arse to go out and vote, which I don't think will be the case now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 This might have been covered already, but in the Quebec referendum in 1995 the Yes campaign turned an 8% deficit into a 6% lead in the eight weeks or so before the vote, and then lost it by just over 1% when the vote came in. Obviously it's a different country with different factors at play, but to some degree or another it hints at previously-intended Yes voters opting for the status quo once they got to the ballot box. I'll be voting Yes, but I'm certainly not confident of a win. The polls might be out but they're a better guess at what's happening than most other possibilities, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few last minute No switchers. I reckon it'll pan out something like 46/54 No - close enough to not bury the issue and maybe have another referendum in 20-odd years, but no more than that. It's true we can't ignore previous referndums, but at the same time, different actors with different demographics,different socio-economic factors, different policy issues and 20 years of global change means theres a limitation as to how much read across from Quebec you can have. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugal Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Scotland are going to win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/11098848/Betfair-pays-out-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html ' Betfair is so confident about a No vote on Thursday that it is already paying out to those who have staked money on it ' Interesting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
git-intae-thum Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Political betting chap just tweeted that going by Betfair odds a winning £100 bet on Yes would produce profit of £450, on No £28. That is crazy odds fir yes. Think I will lump on 50 quid. Independence and a wee holiday. Bonus. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever_blue Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/11098848/Betfair-pays-out-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html ' Betfair is so confident about a No vote on Thursday that it is already paying out to those who have staked money on it ' Interesting. posted this in the independence forum and even as a no voter, this sounds nuts regarding how close the thing is 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 posted this in the independence forum and even as a no voter, this sounds nuts regarding how close the thing is It's a 6 figure sum they're paying out. Remarkable really, they must be more confident of a win than I am, and I'm extremely confident. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Tick tock, Lex. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 Tick tock, Lex. Tick rock indeed pal, 60 odd hours. Cannot wait 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La_Leyenda Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) This might have been covered already, but in the Quebec referendum in 1995 the Yes campaign turned an 8% deficit into a 6% lead in the eight weeks or so before the vote, and then lost it by just over 1% when the vote came in. Obviously it's a different country with different factors at play, but to some degree or another it hints at previously-intended Yes voters opting for the status quo once they got to the ballot box. I'll be voting Yes, but I'm certainly not confident of a win. The polls might be out but they're a better guess at what's happening than most other possibilities, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few last minute No switchers. I reckon it'll pan out something like 46/54 No - close enough to not bury the issue and maybe have another referendum in 20-odd years, but no more than that. Happy to be corrected, but I don't think Quebec has ever been an independent country, and it seemed to be more about getting more powers than anything else. They essentially were voting for Devo max and when it was promised to them at the last minute they took it, something I believe they've lived to regret.Scotland has a stronger national identity, and I think that means it is less likely yes voters will change their mind in the last few days of the campaign. Many don't believe a Devo max is enough. That's not me predicting a yes win though. I genuinely have no idea. Edited September 16, 2014 by La_Leyenda 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I see bet fair have decided it's all over: now paying out on a no vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I see bet fair have decided it's all over: now paying out on a no vote. I'm really suspicious of this. They couldn't wait THREE days? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 It's a 6 figure sum they're paying out. Remarkable really, they must be more confident of a win than I am, and I'm extremely confident. It's looking likely thankfully. The BT campaign was quiet but rational people are. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'm really suspicious of this. They couldn't wait THREE days? Conspiracy? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Conspiracy? Nah. As I alluded to in another thread, it's publicity. The odds have always been so ludicrously short on a No vote, they've probably made next to no net loss. Nothing is changed. Still all to play for. Still going to be a Yes win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Nah. As I alluded to in another thread, it's publicity. The odds have always been so ludicrously short on a No vote, they've probably made next to no net loss. Nothing is changed. Still all to play for. Still going to be a Yes win. Would be a tiny price to pay if it was subsidised by the UKG though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Business decision. They will hope many place bets back on, this time to yes 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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