Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[renton]

this whole thing suggests that further devolution is a major factor to most voters. people like it but will it really take precedence over the economic narrative both camapigns deliver?

I would imagine that a desire to devolve the tax base to Holyrood at least suggests that the economic narrative of BT is not entirely convincing to start with.

[banterman86]

I would imagine that a desire to devolve the tax base to Holyrood at least suggests that the economic narrative of BT is not entirely convincing to start with.

But that's a chattering classes line - by economic narrative i mean who does a more convincing job that you're better off with Yes/No - see the £500 poll a while back for example.

[Davi3j]

But that's a chattering classes line - by economic narrative i mean who does a more convincing job that you're better off with Yes/No - see the £500 poll a while back for example.

Austerity clicky

[banterman86]

Austerity clicky

Yeah that's a good opportunity for Yes, although it depends on a Tory win in 2015 looking likely by the autumn.

[George Parr]

We had a poll in my work today. 31 colleagues took part.

Results:

Yes - 3

No - 28

[Fotbawmad]

Only the SNP paid for ones stuffed full of nationalists give reasonable results for them. Even then they still cant buy one that has them winning.

Poll after poll shows about a third of people are in the don't know camp. There has yet to be any serious open debate which we'll not get to the months leading up to the referendum. All I'll say is, just watch these unionists crumble when they take on the likes of Salmond and Sturgeon in a televised debate. Carmichael has already made a big arse of himself on TV. Just wait for the likes of Darling to do it

What we have now is better. Currency union without political union doesnt work either.

Not worth all the upheaval for something thats going to make us considerably worse off. No thanks.

Scotland and England are very similar economies. The same comparison can't be made with the likes of Greece and Germany. The Euro is a complete non starter in terms of joining it. We could have our own currency, but our currency will be too strong, and hurt our exports.

Not really. It's far too simplistic to imply such a causal relationship. It doesn't cover, for example, a whole range of divergent tax base priorities, which under the existing political Union does not provide for in it's London size fits all theology. Scotland is demographically and geographically divergent from England. The economies, though broadly in line with each other are still divergent in terms of what we make and export: manufacturing in Scotland is still a larger % of the economy, our digital sector is proportionately stronger, while primary sector farming and oil extraction give a different character to the Scottish economy that is blotted out by London priorities.

Currency Union without political union only really means a lack of control over interest rates, however we currently have little or no control over those anyway. The BoE is independent of Westminster and Scotland as a nation has no bargaining power with respect to the BoE and only a small minority of MPs to influence Westminster policy. For me, getting control of the tax base in the first instance is more important, and a currency Union, at least in the short term leaves us no worse off than we would be by staying in a ridiculously lop sided political union with England.

Interest rates are obviously a factor, but you're also overlooking who gets to control the quantity of money. Thus who gets to decide how much inflation, or deflation is in the economy.

[H_B]

Poll after poll shows about a third of people are in the don't know camp.

Well, that's just not true is it?

[Reynard]

Poll after poll shows about a third of people are in the don't know camp. There has yet to be any serious open debate which we'll not get to the months leading up to the referendum. All I'll say is, just watch these unionists crumble when they take on the likes of Salmond and Sturgeon in a televised debate. Carmichael has already made a big arse of himself on TV. Just wait for the likes of Darling to do it

Scotland and England are very similar economies. The same comparison can't be made with the likes of Greece and Germany. The Euro is a complete non starter in terms of joining it. We could have our own currency, but our currency will be too strong, and hurt our exports.

Interest rates are obviously a factor, but you're also overlooking who gets to control the quantity of money. Thus who gets to decide how much inflation, or deflation is in the economy.

Your opening gambit was a total fantasy.

The rest of it is economic illiteracy. Do you advise shovel ready, lever pulling Swinney by any chance?

[Reynard]

Another poll just in covering the south of Scotland/Borders regions showing 59% voting no 24% voting yes and 17% don't know. Falling pretty much into line with what we already know.

The nationalists are being drubbed.

[renton]

Another poll just in covering the south of Scotland/Borders regions showing 59% voting no 24% voting yes and 17% don't know. Falling pretty much into line with what we already know.

The nationalists are being drubbed.

which poll is this?

[Reynard]

They also ran one of those do you feel scottish or british questions. The results are quite interesting lieu of the referendum intentions

21% felt Scottish not British

24% felt more Scottish than British

35% felt equally Scottish and British

7% felt more British than Scottish

12% said they felt British not Scottish

1% didn't know what the f**k was going on

[Reynard]

which poll is this?

One that ITV commissioned. Came out just there.

[renton]

They also ran one of those do you feel scottish or british questions. The results are quite interesting lieu of the referendum intentions

21% felt Scottish not British

24% felt more Scottish than British

35% felt equally Scottish and British

7% felt more British than Scottish

12% said they felt British not Scottish

1% didn't know what the f**k was going on

Yeah, found it: Comres for ITV borders. Have to admit, of the folk I've known from down that way, it's always been pretty unifomlyy negative towards independence. The regional variances would be interesting to know.

[Davi3j]

Yeah that's a good opportunity for Yes, although it depends on a Tory win in 2015 looking likely by the autumn.

which ones, blue or red...Labour have agreed cuts need to happen, its the torries fault but cuts need to happen.

[Reynard]

Yeah, found it: Comres for ITV borders. Have to admit, of the folk I've known from down that way, it's always been pretty unifomlyy negative towards independence. The regional variances would be interesting to know.

I wonder if they will commission other of the STV regions to find out? Although I doubt the results will vary too wildly from that to be honest.

[renton]

Actually if you look at it, If you assume (and it's just an assumption) That the Scottish not British and British not Scottish parts vote Yes and NO repsectively, then add the more British than Scottish to the No vote and the equally Scottish and British, your just about to your actual No figure. Take 5% of your more Scottish than British to No and 3 to Yes and you get your Yes and No figures with the rest of the more Scottish than British undecided.

Doubt it breaks down so neatly but it could be a decent correlation if you imagine that the more Scottish than British are typically undecided (maybe want to vote yes but need the information) and the percentiles of equal and increasing Britishness firmly in the BT camp.

Again, I'd love to see a poll done like that for every council region. Would be fascinating.

[Reynard]

Actually if you look at it, If you assume (and it's just an assumption) That the Scottish not British and British not Scottish parts vote Yes and NO repsectively, then add the more British than Scottish to the No vote and the equally Scottish and British, your just about to your actual No figure. Take 5% of your more Scottish than British to No and 3 to Yes and you get your Yes and No figures with the rest of the more Scottish than British undecided.

Doubt it breaks down so neatly but it could be a decent correlation if you imagine that the more Scottish than British are typically undecided (maybe want to vote yes but need the information) and the percentiles of equal and increasing Britishness firmly in the BT camp.

Again, I'd love to see a poll done like that for every council region. Would be fascinating.

Yeah there's no way of knowing how the respondents fell into which categories although youre certainly right that the Scottish not Britsih crowd and the British not scottish crowd are your basic yes and no brigade

I would have responded more Scottish than British if asked.

[renton]

Yeah there's no way of knowing how the respondents fell into which categories although youre certainly right that the Scottish not Britsih crowd and the British not scottish crowd are your basic yes and no brigade

I would have responded more Scottish than British if asked.

Again, it's something they could poll if they were so inclined to do so. Does the poll vover Dumfries and Galloway? As I say, I don't think I've ever met anyone from the borders (hardly scientific, I know) who were supporters of independence, I don't know why. I imagine, that in certain places it'll be closer, The north east where the SNP is traditionally strong for example. I suppose it's the regions out west, Glasgow city council and the Lankashire councils, that would make the most interesting reading.

Edited January 7, 2014 by renton

[Reynard]

Again, it's something they could poll if they were so inclined to do so. Does the poll vover Dumfries and Galloway? As I say, I don't think I've ever met anyone from the borders (hardly scientific, I know) who were supporters of independence, I don't know why. I imagine, that in certain places it'll be closer, The north east where the SNP is traditionally strong for example. I suppose it's the regions out west, Glasgow city council and the Lankashire councils, that would make the most interesting reading.

Thew shittier the area you live in the the more inclined to a yes vote probably.

It tends to be poor folk and general dole fodder voting yes as can be seen in the likes of this place.

[Jamaldo]

Thew shittier the area you live in the the more inclined to a yes vote probably.

It tends to be poor folk and general dole fodder voting yes as can be seen in the likes of this place.

You've obviously not watched the "Rangers fans on Scottish Independence" video then.