Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[H_B]

Basically, there's a third for, a third against, and a third who want more devolution, but only one side is offering serious devolution (i.e. devolution of all mechanisms to form a new nation state). Unless Labour and the Tories offer up serious concrete offers for conceding large tracts of domestic policy (and you only have to look at YouGov's September poll to see what scots think should be under Holyrood control) before the referendum, then it's anyone's guess where that other third will land.

Also, this is completely disingenuous. It completely ignores the reaality of the Yes/No polling.

You can't seriously be pretending it's 1/3rd Yes, 1/3rd No and well, who knows where the others will fall?

[renton]

You stated that the difference between Panelbase and the others was their weighting, whether Holyrood or Westminster.

Which conveniently ignored that both the SNP and WoS have bought Panelbase polls and trued to manipulate the results to create a different narrative from the actual truth - which is that all neutral polling shows the SNP getting taken behind the woodshed for an absolute bleaching.

The referendum pollsters themselves are impartial. As I said. The referendum polls themselves are not necessarily impartial as shown by the SNP buying one in an act of utter desperation.

It conveniently ignores nothing. The principle difference is the weighting, and when I said that it was with reference to those panelbase polls undertaken by the times, while I did not go as far as to specifically exclude the outlying poll as "bought" by the SNP, it never the less remains a true point, the weighting is the principle difference. It's also true that both sides do use different questions to influence the outcome. As for the WoS polls, they were principally not for the headline referendum question (and actually some of the data was quite interesting, and in line with both Curtice's SSA survey, and the recent BT poll with the three options). I honestly can't believe you are picking up on one sentence in a post that did not exactly exclude one poll you find offensive when remarking that the wieghting behind differne tpolls influence their outcome. Ad Lib would be proud.

[H_B]

It conveniently ignores nothing. The principle difference is the weighting, and when I said that it was with reference to those panelbase polls undertaken by the times, while I did not go as far as to specifically exclude the outlying poll as "bought" by the SNP, it never the less remains a true point, the weighting is the principle difference.

Yes, why didn't you exclude the SNP bought poll?

And why is "bought" in inverted commas?

[renton]

Also, this is completely disingenuous. It completely ignores the reaality of the Yes/No polling.

You can't seriously be pretending it's 1/3rd Yes, 1/3rd No and well, who knows where the others will fall?

Why the f**k not? The quesiton asked makes no reference as to what extra devolution means, because none of the BT parties have given us the benefit of what they actually think on the matter. Without that information in the question, it's up to the responder to imply what it means in their own head. Therefore you have no way of knowing if what is eventually put on the table will be enough to sate the desires for more devolution on the part of those responding, nor does the question illuminate the responding person's priorities - for all you know, the desire to have welfare and tax totally devolved trumps staying in the Union, and if that is not what is eventually offered, then why would the responding person not change their mind from 'more devolution' to 'independence'.

Edited January 7, 2014 by renton

[H_B]

Why the f**k not? .

Becuase we have vast amounts of data showing where this third will fall. Or well, the lion's share of this third.

You would be onto something if Yes/No polling was approximately 33 Yes 33 No and 33 Don't Know, but it isn't. It's 27-32 Yes, 42-50 No and 18-32 Don't Know.

We know where the "I'm not tied to the Status Quo or Independence" people are falling. That's why Independence is such a massive long shot in this referendum.

[renton]

Yes, why didn't you exclude the SNP bought poll?

And why is "bought" in inverted commas?

It's one poll form months ago, it didn't occur to me to specifically remove it on that basis when making a general point about how different pollsters come up with different results.

As to your second point, I put "bought" in inverted commas for all the usual reasons someone does. For the record, I do not consider that poll to be a complete write off. For all the headline figure was an outlier, probably due to the sequencing of questions, I do think it's an interesting data point for that very reason, in what frame of mind you had to get people thinking to evince a 5% swing fromt he other PB polls?

[renton]

Becuase we have vast amounts of data showing where this third will fall. Or well, the lion's share of this third.

You would be onto something if Yes/No polling was approximately 33 Yes 33 No and 33 Don't Know, but it isn't. It's 27-32 Yes, 42-50 No and 18-32 Don't Know.

We know where the "I'm not tied to the Status Quo or Independence" people are falling. That's why Independence is such a massive long shot in this referendum.

Where is this vast amount of data? Where is the poll showing voter priorities on what should be devolved and how they will behave if they don't get it. All this shows is that there is currently a large appetite for those who want more devolution, and who currently favour that option over indy. there is little enough data showing how they will jump if they don't get it.

[LinkinFighter]

It would bother me less probably ,yes.

 

The euro is a currency union without political union and as can be seen its not a good situation to be in when economies diverge.

Fair enough, I'm not all for a currency union either. On day one it makes sense but I'd like us to have our own currency eventually.

[H_B]

As to your second point, I put "bought" in inverted commas for all the usual reasons someone does. For the record, I do not consider that poll to be a complete write off.

Of course it's a complete write off. It's the ultimate in outlier polls. And for very obvious reasons.

I understand the point in buying your own results. It created good publicity for a short while (until it was completely discredited) and people will see a headline and not realise how laughable the poll was in terms of value.

The SNP will do this again at some point nearer the referendum. I don't blame them for it - they are desperate.

[renton]

Of course it's a complete write off. It's the ultimate in outlier polls. And for very obvious reasons.

I understand the point in buying your own results. It created good publicity for a short while (until it was completely discredited) and people will see a headline and not realise how laughable the poll was in terms of value.

The SNP will do this again at some point nearer the referendum. I don't blame them for it - they are desperate.

For all you are the one talking about changing the narratives, you have your own particular reality you are desperate to push, don't you.

[H_B]

Where is this vast amount of data? Where is the poll showing voter priorities on what should be devolved and how they will behave if they don't get it. All this shows is that there is currently a large appetite for those who want more devolution, and who currently favour that option over indy. there is little enough data showing how they will jump if they don't get it.

Knock yourself out - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum

There have been 26 polls in 2013. Not including those bought by the SNP or WoS or the May Ashcroft poll.

Yes has fluctuated between 25 and 38 %.

No has fluctuated between 41 and 59 %.

So Yes' very high point doesn't match no's lowest point.

[H_B]

For all you are the one talking about changing the narratives, you have your own particular reality you are desperate to push, don't you.

I'm dealing in facts, not trying to manipulate reality to keep the faithful delivering leaflets.

[renton]

Knock yourself out - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum

There have been 26 polls in 2013. Not including those bought by the SNP or WoS or the May Ashcroft poll.

Yes has fluctuated between 25 and 38 %.

No has fluctuated between 41 and 59 %.

So Yes' very high point doesn't match no's lowest point.

Great, now, within that No group, what percentage favour greater devolution, what are their priorities for devolution and what way will they jump if those priorities are not met? Where is that data?

[H_B]

Great, now, within that No group, what percentage favour greater devolution, what are their priorities for devolution and what way will they jump if those priorities are not met? Where is that data?

In what way is that data relevant in what will be a Yes/No referendum in 2014? What people are being asked to determine is whether they want Independence or to remain within the UK.

[renton]

In what way is that data relevant in what will be a Yes/No referendum in 2014? What people are being asked to determine is whether they want Independence or to remain within the UK.

Now your being obtuse, how is that not relevent? Right now there is a nebulous quality to the notion of further devolution. A lot of people certainly would like greater devolution without the total 'risk' that comes with independence. Yet if this devolution is not available, if they rate their loyalty to the Union lower than they rate having more real power at Holyrood - you think they'll just shrug their shoulders and vote No? All of them?

Edited January 7, 2014 by renton

[AUFC90]

In what way is that data relevant in what will be a Yes/No referendum in 2014? What people are being asked to determine is whether they want Independence or to remain within the UK.

Everything.

[the jambo-rocker]

I imagine the scope of extra powers will continue remain very vague simply because it keeps the option of the option of it being a possibility, as it helps divide the uncertain voters from seeing it as a yes/no option, even though they are literally the only two options on the table at the moment, not to mention that there has been no concrete objectives to what these extra powers would be other than pure speculation.

[H_B]

if they rate their loyalty to the Union lower than they rate having more real power at Holyrood - you think they'll just shrug their shoulders and vote No? All of them?

Doesn't need to be "all of them".

As we've established No has vastly more of the "missing 33%" than Yes does. All No needs is 50% plus one. As polling shows witout a shadow of a doubt No has a vast lead on Yes. Because those who aren't tied to either "definite Yes" or "definite Status Quo - not interested in more devolution" are mostly on the No side in a Yes/No question.

[renton]

Doesn't need to be "all of them".

As we've established No has vastly more of the "missing 33%" than Yes does. All No needs is 50% plus one. As polling shows witout a shadow of a doubt No has a vast lead on Yes. Because those who aren't tied to either "definite Yes" or "definite Status Quo - not interested in more devolution" are mostly on the No side in a Yes/No question.

Actually, all it suggests is that the majority of that missing 33% believe at this point in time that the Labour party will come up with the raft of devolved powers to keep them happy. That belief can wane, and for some, will do as Labour prevaricate before coming up with some absolutely paltry scheme for further devolution. Both Curtice and WoS polls give us a good idea of what powers people think should be devolved, how do you think poeple wil lact if Labour comes up with something well short of what they want or expect.

[banterman86]

Actually, all it suggests is that the majority of that missing 33% believe at this point in time that the Labour party will come up with the raft of devolved powers to keep them happy. That belief can wane, and for some, will do as Labour prevaricate before coming up with some absolutely paltry scheme for further devolution. Both Curtice and WoS polls give us a good idea of what powers people think should be devolved, how do you think poeple wil lact if Labour comes up with something well short of what they want or expect.

this whole thing suggests that further devolution is a major factor to most voters. people like it but will it really take precedence over the economic narrative both camapigns deliver?