renton Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Yeah, it depends on the next few polls obviously. They are all settling into a similar-ish pattern now. But the obvious flaws in the "we made up 10% in a week so in 3 weeks we'll be 20% ahead!!!" thinking was illustrated beautifully here (my favourite bit of Yes fail, breathlessly repeated on here several times ) :- The effect is that according to current trends, Yes will overtake No on the 1st of September 2013, and by the time of the referendum, there will be more than twice as many Yes voters as No voters. Well aye, trying to extrapolate a trend when there is no underlying mathematicla mechanism, is absurd. I did like the guys at the Uni in the States though, who produced the Baysian analysis, examining the polls in their entiriety and creating a probability of outcomes, which at the time was centred on 49% with the upper limit at 54%, it was a nice piece of work. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I have consistently on many occasions predicted a final result of 53/47 or thereabouts. And I have also stated that anyone predicting a 20 point winning margin was going to be wrong. A question, H_B, and please answer honestly. Are you nervous? Be honest. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I have consistently on many occasions predicted a final result of 53/47 or thereabouts. And I have also stated that anyone predicting a 20 point winning margin was going to be wrong. So there will be no further movement in the polls for the Yes vote? That's it as far as you're concerned? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 (edited) The only people "correcting themselves" are the nodrones as they look upon in shock as Bitter Together absolutely shits on their cornflakes with repeated, inflammatory and blatantly untrue negative campaigning. Edited September 2, 2014 by Casual Bystander 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Peter Kellner of @YouGov on @thetimes poll: "A close finish looks likely, and a ‘yes’ victory is now a real possibility So in the last four weeks No have lost EIGHT percent in YouGov polls? What the f**k is going on? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 So in the last four weeks No have lost EIGHT percent in YouGov polls? What the f**k is going on? I think we can safely say the No side are haemorrhaging votes by the day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 A question, H_B, and please answer honestly. Are you nervous? Be honest. No, certainly not. Whilst I still expect No to win this referendum comfortably, it's not something I'm overly worried about in general. It's really not that important. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I think we can safely say the No side are haemorrhaging votes by the day. Plus Westminster are shitting buttons, so we can expect the lies and scares to be ramped up, which I believe will blow up in their faces even more. Pleasing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 No, certainly not. Whilst I still expect No to win this referendum comfortably, it's not something I'm overly worried about in general. It's really not that important. So do you concede Yes might win? And that doesn't bother you? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 So there will be no further movement in the polls for the Yes vote? That's it as far as you're concerned? There might be a bit of movement towards parity in a few of the traditional Yes preferring pollsters, but in any "poll of polls" type analysis a 4-6 point lead for No going into Ref day will be seen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I'm pretty sure Darling's last clown running across a minefield performance made its contribution. They must be bricking it, trying to find a credible tack for eyebrows ahead of the next debate. It'd be glorious if he just tried to bang on about currency again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 So do you concede Yes might win? And that doesn't bother you? Doesn't bother me at all - I've already said I don't believe Independence will make any difference at all to people's lives or to anything really. But no, I don't think Yes might win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 There might be a bit of movement towards parity in a few of the traditional Yes preferring pollsters, but in any "poll of polls" type analysis a 4-6 point lead for No going into Ref day will be seen. So no more movement on YouGov then? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 There might be a bit of movement towards parity in a few of the traditional Yes preferring pollsters, but in any "poll of polls" type analysis a 4-6 point lead for No going into Ref day will be seen. Poll of polls of course not accounting for the late, dramatic upswell in support for the good guys. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 So no more movement on YouGov then? No... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 They must be bricking it, trying to find a credible tack for eyebrows ahead of the next debate. It'd be glorious if he just tried to bang on about currency again. Is there going to be another debate? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Poll of polls of course not accounting for the late, dramatic upswell in support for the good guys. Do you know what a poll of polls is? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Is there going to be another debate? Not between Salmond and Darling. ITV is showing a 3-on-3 tonight and there's a BBC thing in Aberdeen tomorrow. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I'm pretty sure Darling's last clown running across a minefield performance made its contribution. They must be bricking it, trying to find a credible tack for eyebrows ahead of the next debate. It'd be glorious if he just tried to bang on about currency again. Darling is a busted flush, he is getting pelters from both sides, Alexander is being round accused of fucking this up and what is the Bitter's response to all this? Gordon "Where's the gold" Brown! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 So do you concede Yes might win? And that doesn't bother you? Whatever the result, we can guarantee that H_B will come out with his classics like, "As I said all along", and, "Just as I predicted months ago", even if the result is the complete opposite to what he's been saying for the last two years. This is him trying to save face now. Before it was, "Yes were never going to win". Now, it's "I still expect No to win", which implies there's a small chance for Yes. He's the Peter Kellner of P+B essentially. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.