Colkitto Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Indeed. The famous SNP "internal" polling that fools no one bar the NCC. I'd expect Don't Knows to fall into the approximate same percentages as the rest of us. So about 3:2 in favour of No. You hope! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Indeed. The famous SNP "internal" polling that fools no one bar the NCC. I'd expect Don't Knows to fall into the approximate same percentages as the rest of us. So about 3:2 in favour of No. Your own internal polling? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 HB and Reynard have been especially precious recently. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Polls can’t be relied on http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-monteith-polls-can-t-be-relied-on-1-3274441 "The polls can only tell us so much; events and how our politicians react to them is what will decide the outcome." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Your own internal polling? No, I prefer to go on actual polling, rather than made up stuff from SNP goons. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No, I prefer to go on actual polling, rather than made up stuff from SNP goons. So which poll showed the undecided's breaking 3:2 against? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So which poll showed the undecided's breaking 3:2 against? Which part of "expect" could you not grasp? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Which part of "expect" could you not grasp? So not going on "actual polling" then. Fair enough. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So not going on "actual polling" then. Fair enough. No, I am going on "actual polling". "Actual polling" shows No in a clear lead, and at very conservatively 60% of the non don't knows. You aren't taking well to your fairly bonkers claim turning out to be utter bollocks are you? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 No, I am going on "actual polling". "Actual polling" shows No in a clear lead, and at very conservatively 60% of the non don't knows. You aren't taking well to your fairly bonkers claim turning out to be utter bollocks are you? The point is that you have no data on the undecideds, and for all the internal polling used by the SNP may be of dubious methodology, it's still probably better than you airily pulling a ratio out of your arse, isn't it? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The point is that you have no data on the undecideds, and for all the internal polling used by the SNP may be of dubious methodology, it's still probably better than you airily pulling a ratio out of your arse, isn't it? That's right - we have no data on the undecideds. We do have data on the decideds though. Sorry, but SNP gathered data is of no value whatsoever. We know that among the decideds the figures are roughly 60:40 in favour of No. For your claim to be true, we'd have to have seen the split from Yes to No of 66 to 33. I was (rightly as it turned out) suspecting this was utter bullshit without any basis in fact, which is what's turned out to be the case. There's no reason to expect that the Yes/No split among DKs will be any different to the Yes/No split between Knows. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 (edited) That's right - we have no data on the undecideds. We do have data on the decideds though. Sorry, but SNP gathered data is of no value whatsoever. We know that among the decideds the figures are roughly 60:40 in favour of No. For your claim to be true, we'd have to have seen the split from Yes to No of 66 to 33. I was (rightly as it turned out) suspecting this was utter bullshit without any basis in fact, which is what's turned out to be the case. There's no reason to expect that the Yes/No split among DKs will be any different to the Yes/No split between Knows. Why is there no reason to suspect that DKs will not split differently from the current Yes/No? Why is your assumption that this will be so of more relative worth than a private poll (the ambiguity of which I made clear when I posted the link to it, I am not so precious that I cannot take a detatched view of these things). If you look at the DKs from the WoS/Panelbase poll it showed that the majority of DKs come from Labour/SNP - the LDs and Tories are pretty much dead set against. The STV/Ipsos-Mori poll in December showed the No vote lead decreasing from 19% to14%, with the Yes vote steady -i.e. the DKs were swelled by a group of people who were travelling from No to DK, if not convinced by independence it at leaset shows a measure of traffic in that direction. I would like to know a lot more about where the DKs ar ein relation to the debate right now, The limited data suggests some positive momentum for yes in there, even if you don't take jenkin's assertion from his internal polling at face value - and I don't, I'd want to see the methodology, and am happy to examine each poll on it's own merits. You have provided no data for your assumption that DKs will break the same as current polling suggests those who have already decided will (and to look at Ipsos-Mori, even that ratio is changeable), and for all your claims that Jenkin's assertions are bullshit, it's not unreasonable to suggest that your own 3:2 against in the DK bracket should be filed under the same heading. Edited January 21, 2014 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why is there no reason to suspect that DKs will not split differently from the current Yes/No? Because Yes/No polling has been incredibly static. Yes is making no ground at all in the polls. And yet, for you to be correct, these DKs are splitting 2 to 1 for Yes? So we know that consistently 1 in 3 people favour Independence. Give or take. Yet of those who are in the DK camp, that miraculously changes to 2 in 3 favouring Independence? Really? As you say, we have no idea what the DK split is. None at all. Unless one of the polling companies has a supplementary Q only for the Dont Knows that says "Right, imagine I'm holding your family hostage, and you need to vote Yes or No... what is it going to be?" we have no idea what the DKs think. It's also much more likely that the DKs will also be Wont Bothers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forza ton Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why do bitters constantly say the polls haven't changed when they clearly have? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saintsambo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Social attitudes poll released tonight, but there seems to have been about 30 questions asked. Headline poll being: Yes 30% No 54% Unsure 16% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Social attitudes poll released tonight, but there seems to have been about 30 questions asked. Headline poll being: Yes 30% No 54% Unsure 16% Curtice was on Radio Scotland this morning. It's yet another poll where Yes are making no progress. Support for Independence is just so static. Must be hugely alarming for the Yes campaign - which is going absolutely nowhere. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Bully Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Curtice was on Radio Scotland this morning. It's yet another poll where Yes are making no progress. Support for Independence is just so static. Must be hugely alarming for the Yes campaign - which is going absolutely nowhere. Even for you, that is wildly disingenuous. The last SSAS showed 23% support for independence, and was widely trumpeted on here and else where. This one shows support for independence at 29%. By my analysis, that is both progress and is not static. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 (edited) Curtice was on Radio Scotland this morning. It's yet another poll where Yes are making no progress. Support for Independence is just so static. Must be hugely alarming for the Yes campaign - which is going absolutely nowhere. There is definitely a lot to use and abuse for both sides of the debate there, as Wee Bully points out the much trumpeted all time low 23% figure is now at 29%, so a six point jump there. The No side will trumpet the absolute unsailability of that headline figure. It's a bit of a contradiciton, but while that 23-29% figure exists, so does one question that reckons that all decisions should be made by the Scottish parliament has dropped by 4% since last year, which doesn't seem self consistent. My two big complaints with Curtice are as always about timing. You simply can't treat a poll of 1,500 folk over six months as one sample. I'm not the expert here, Curtice is - but in my job I work with statistics a fair bit in terms of designing semiconductor devices for quality and reliability. I know that if I tried to look at lifetime testing of parts in six subsamples over a period of six months, and then presented the data as one sample with the end points normalised to the last batch, I'd be laughed out of the building. Curtice's methodology does not allow for folk changing their minds during his sample period, he has no way of knowing that the folk he asked in June, still hold the same opinion in October. It also means that each sub-sample taken on it's own, if it can be broken down that way, would be very small and prone to large errors. Secondly, the press are reporting this as being 'new' i.e. current - when in fact the last samples of data were picked up in Ocotber 2013: Three months ago. Coincidentally, one month before the publishing of the white paper. Whatever it's actual impact, there is no doubt that there is now a lot more information available from both sides, and a lot of ink spilled since Curtice finished his data collection, which surely pours some doubt on the questions he asked regading how informed voters felt. Edited January 22, 2014 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Even for you, that is wildly disingenuous. The last SSAS showed 23% support for independence, and was widely trumpeted on here and else where. This one shows support for independence at 29%. By my analysis, that is both progress and is not static. It's actually a drop on the 2011 figure in the same survey. Depends where you take "progress" from. There was also a drop of 4 points in the poll to 31% of "The Scottish Parliament should make all decisions for Scotland". The point is, it is still at a level broadly similar to other polling, when you remove the don't knows. Independence, as you must admit, is gaining absolutely no traction in the polls. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The SSAS didn't even use the independence question that will be asked on the ballot paper... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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