Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[PaulIsclosed]

It's not a time series because it's collected as such, it's time dependent becuase voter opinion can change inside of the sampling interval he uses, you are correct of course that randomisation might by chance land him with a rock steady sample, but at the same time, in a live campaign, and with other pollsters showing variances within the sampling period he uses, he is leaving himself open to the chance of aliasing as his sample might be varying during the polling event. Were he to conduct his fieldwork over a shorter period of time, there would be less chance of that happening. As it stands, there is the opportunity for a statistically signifcant portion of his sample to change their minds after he's polled them but before his sampling period is over, and to be counted one way, when in fact, this is an innacurate representation of their views.

It's not time dependent. If it were time dependent then time would be a covariate, as it's not a covariate you can't say that it's time dependent. Again the time period doesn't matter because he's not using it to conclude that this is the opinion of people now, tomorrow, two weeks ago, at the end of the sample period, at the beginning of the sample period, or anything else BUT the opinion of people during the sample period. It doesn't matter if somebody he sampled changed their mind as he could have randomly selected that person again or somebody else who changed their opinion too. Randomization is necessary, not because we might luck on the perfect sample but because it's required to make rigorour mathematical inference on the data.

[Baxter Parp]

The only people I've seen act with rage and threats of violence following the result are Yes voters on here.

H_B admitting he never reads Reynard's posts, there.

[H_B]

Is this your patented "cannon fodder" role to deflect from the utter disaster chicBurma has had here?

[Colkitto]

Is everybody happy!!!!!!

[capybara]

Is everybody happy!!!!!!

Release XBL

[ayrmad]

Is everybody happy!!!!!!

Another 1 or 2 like that poll and the fun will start in earnest.

Just wait 'til we get to the point where the guy is promising his lady the earth just to get his way.

Edited January 26, 2014 by ayrmad

[H_B]

Another 1 or 2 like that poll and the fun will start in earnest.

There have been many polls exactly like it already. Though all from Panelbase.

This is the only non-Panelbase poll to have Yes at 37%, so it's significant from that point of view.

[Colkitto]

Release XBL

Where is he anyway? Banned ?

[LinkinFighter]

SNP bought the poll imo.

[ayrmad]

SNP bought the poll imo.

It's the only reason I can think of for the result.

Wait 'til we see what non-guaranteed goodies we get offered now, would it not have been easier for Cameron to allow us to vote for guaranteed goodies.

[H_B]

It's the only reason I can think of for the result.

Before you get too excited, the result shows Yes on 37%. That's still not good.

[JogaBonito]

Paper could have went with "Independence within Scotland's grasp" but they just have to put SNP in there..

8 months to go and with more debates to come, I'm feeling optimistic...

[ayrmad]

Before you get too excited, the result shows Yes on 37%. That's still not good.

Oh, I'm hoping NO introduce a poll showing Yes under 30%, I just needed to know that my feelings were correct.

We're in a long game, you don't show your hand early like NO have been doing.

Cameron will regret his wee line after the Edinburgh Agreement.

[LinkinFighter]

Before you get too excited, the result shows Yes on 37%. That's still not good.

With 8 months to go.

[lichtgilphead]

Before you get too excited, the result shows Yes on 37%. That's still not good.

Whilst that's technically correct, it's meaningless without context.

Taken to extremes, it could mean Yes 37%, No 0% and DK 63% (a landslide for Yes) or Yes 37% No 63% and DK 0% (a landslide for No) or the actual true figures from the poll - Yes 37% No 44% and DK 19% (all to play for - a further 4% swing to Yes would result in a Yes win)

If you're just going to give a "Yes" figure in isolation, it should be the 47% Yes figure given later in the poll - a pure Yes/No figure with DK factored out

[ayrmad]

Whilst that's technically correct, it's meaningless without context.

Taken to extremes, it could mean Yes 37%, No 0% and DK 63% (a landslide for Yes) or Yes 37% No 63% and DK 0% (a landslide for No) or the actual true figures from the poll - Yes 37% No 44% and DK 19% (all to play for - a further 4% swing to Yes would result in a Yes win)

If you're just going to give a "Yes" figure in isolation, it should be the 47% Yes figure given later in the poll - a pure Yes/No figure with DK factored out

Honestly, you're better just letting him post like that, anything else just encourages deflection, THERE'S ONLY 1 POLL THAT COUNTS, the snowball is being manoeuvred into position.

[Burma]

Is this your patented "cannon fodder" role to deflect from the utter disaster chicBurma has had here?

Ok explain why you preface my Username with chic/chick. Gotta be a reason. Or are you becoming even more unhinged since you were utterly slapped down the legal thread and point blank ignored the economic debate.

[Burma]

Whilst that's technically correct, it's meaningless without context.

Taken to extremes, it could mean Yes 37%, No 0% and DK 63% (a landslide for Yes) or Yes 37% No 63% and DK 0% (a landslide for No) or the actual true figures from the poll - Yes 37% No 44% and DK 19% (all to play for - a further 4% swing to Yes would result in a Yes win)

If you're just going to give a "Yes" figure in isolation, it should be the 47% Yes figure given later in the poll - a pure Yes/No figure with DK factored out

HB (or AdLib as he sometimes calls himself) is a master at cherrypicking.

[1320Lichtie]

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-snp-claim-within-3065487

[ayrmad]

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-snp-claim-within-3065487

I didn't realise I was voting for a party.