Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[JogaBonito]

"The YouGov poll of 1,200 adults in Scotland was conducted between February 24 and 28 and found after undecided were removed that Yes voters sat at 40% and No voters at 60%

The SNP also said that support for a Yes vote had therefore increased by 1% since YouGov's last poll while backing for a No vote had fallen by the same amount.."

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/latest-poll-yes-35-no-53-dont-knows-12.1393677352

YouGov polls are generally funded by BT right?

Edited March 2, 2014 by JogaBonito

[ecto]

200 days is a long time in something like this. Plenty of folk aren't giving this serious thought so the real action will be in the last month or so.

I think the Yes campaign are having to withstand heavy pressure but that was always going to be the case. BT seem to be trying to land a knock-out blow but that doesn't seem to have worked either.

All to play for.

Really it is a long time 200 days, since 2011 the support for independence has risen by lets say 5 or 6%, they are looking for a rise of say double that in 200 days

I don't really think Better Together have even really started yet, but Yes Scotland and the SNP have been rattled over the past couple of weeks, so the next 200 days will either be very interesting or a non-event, but Ladbrokes still offering 7/2 for a Yes Vote and 1/5 for a No Vote

[Lex]

Yet another kick in the teeth for separatists today, as another poll shows 'better together' gathering momentum and widening the already big gap between the campaigns:

http://news.stv.tv/politics/265962-stv-poll-should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-yes-32-no-57/

' Chancellor George Osborne's intervention on currency appears to have paid off, as a new STV poll shows Scots more likely to vote No after his warning about the pound.

The Conservative politician warned an independent Scotland would not be able to share sterling during a speech in Edinburgh in February.

The UK Government's finance chief said: "If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the pound."

A poll commissioned by STV and conducted by Ipsos Mori suggests the stance, backed up by Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls and Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, resonated with voters.

Amongst undecided voters, 34% are now more likely to vote No, 16% more likely to vote Yes and 44% said their position was unchanged. Six per cent did not know.

The headline results place Yes on 32%, No on 57% and undecideds on 11% amongst those certain to vote. When "don't know" voters are stripped out, support for Yes sits at 36% and No at 64%. '

It's turning into a bit of a cakewalk

Edited March 3, 2014 by Lex

[thepundit]

And yet, the Nationalists will no doubt say support for Scottish Independence is still gathering momentum.

[Dipped Flake]

Yet another kick in the teeth for separatists today, as another poll shows 'better together' gathering momentum and widening the already big gap between the campaigns:

http://news.stv.tv/politics/265962-stv-poll-should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-yes-32-no-57/

' Chancellor George Osborne's intervention on currency appears to have paid off, as a new STV poll shows Scots more likely to vote No after his warning about the pound.

The Conservative politician warned an independent Scotland would not be able to share sterling during a speech in Edinburgh in February.

The UK Government's finance chief said: "If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the pound."

A poll commissioned by STV and conducted by Ipsos Mori suggests the stance, backed up by Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls and Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, resonated with voters.

Amongst undecided voters, 34% are now more likely to vote No, 16% more likely to vote Yes and 44% said their position was unchanged. Six per cent did not know.

The headline results place Yes on 32%, No on 57% and undecideds on 11% amongst those certain to vote. When "don't know" voters are stripped out, support for Yes sits at 36% and No at 64%. '

It's turning into a bit of a cakewalk

the report says that overall support for NO has stayed the same since December while more undecideds have stated a preference for YES so not all doom and gloom for Scotland but I admit that I would really like to see the polls shifting more in our favour pretty soon. My main hope is that BT have used up all their scare tactics and, as more and more people come out to say that a currency union is the sensible option that people scared off by Osbourne may well realise that they have nothing to fear

[renton]

Yet another kick in the teeth for separatists today, as another poll shows 'better together' gathering momentum and widening the already big gap between the campaigns:

http://news.stv.tv/politics/265962-stv-poll-should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-yes-32-no-57/

' Chancellor George Osborne's intervention on currency appears to have paid off, as a new STV poll shows Scots more likely to vote No after his warning about the pound.

The Conservative politician warned an independent Scotland would not be able to share sterling during a speech in Edinburgh in February.

The UK Government's finance chief said: "If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the pound."

A poll commissioned by STV and conducted by Ipsos Mori suggests the stance, backed up by Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls and Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, resonated with voters.

Amongst undecided voters, 34% are now more likely to vote No, 16% more likely to vote Yes and 44% said their position was unchanged. Six per cent did not know.

The headline results place Yes on 32%, No on 57% and undecideds on 11% amongst those certain to vote. When "don't know" voters are stripped out, support for Yes sits at 36% and No at 64%. '

It's turning into a bit of a cakewalk

Really depends which pollster you want to believe, Ipsos remain firmly wedded towards the No friendly category, with ICM and Panelbase tending towards the other, with yes at least 5 points higher and No a good 10 points lower. ICM changed their weightings over their last three polls, and you just had a YouGov one out that showed no dent in the Yes or No numbers as a result of his 'intervention'. You also have evidence from at least one poll carreid out by Scotpulse (could be cowboys) that showed very little movement from the Osborne announcement and what there was, slightly the better for yes. Ipsos show much lower levels of undecideds than the other, and it would be nice to know how that 44% who hadn't changed their position were leaning previously. Ultimately, if Ipsos are showing the actual situation on the ground then the game's a bogie (even if the undecideds all broke for Yes, on Ipsos' largely static polling numbers there'd still be a 20 point odd deficit to overcome, if it's Panelbase and ICM, then it's all to play for.

methodology is everything.

[ayrmad]

Really depends which pollster you want to believe, Ipsos remain firmly wedded towards the No friendly category, with ICM and Panelbase tending towards the other, with yes at least 5 points higher and No a good 10 points lower. ICM changed their weightings over their last three polls, and you just had a YouGov one out that showed no dent in the Yes or No numbers as a result of his 'intervention'. You also have evidence from at least one poll carreid out by Scotpulse (could be cowboys) that showed very little movement from the Osborne announcement and what there was, slightly the better for yes. Ipsos show much lower levels of undecideds than the other, and it would be nice to know how that 44% who hadn't changed their position were leaning previously. Ultimately, if Ipsos are showing the actual situation on the ground then the game's a bogie (even if the undecideds all broke for Yes, on Ipsos' largely static polling numbers there'd still be a 20 point odd deficit to overcome, if it's Panelbase and ICM, then it's all to play for.

methodology is everything.

I would like to see the numbers of those polled in each of the deprivation levels rather than the 2 extremes.

How do you get all the numbers for all groups in this poll?

[ecto]

Really depends which pollster you want to believe, Ipsos remain firmly wedded towards the No friendly category, with ICM and Panelbase tending towards the other, with yes at least 5 points higher and No a good 10 points lower. ICM changed their weightings over their last three polls, and you just had a YouGov one out that showed no dent in the Yes or No numbers as a result of his 'intervention'. You also have evidence from at least one poll carreid out by Scotpulse (could be cowboys) that showed very little movement from the Osborne announcement and what there was, slightly the better for yes. Ipsos show much lower levels of undecideds than the other, and it would be nice to know how that 44% who hadn't changed their position were leaning previously. Ultimately, if Ipsos are showing the actual situation on the ground then the game's a bogie (even if the undecideds all broke for Yes, on Ipsos' largely static polling numbers there'd still be a 20 point odd deficit to overcome, if it's Panelbase and ICM, then it's all to play for.

methodology is everything.

No sure about trusting panelbase, they did the one poll commissioned by the SNP that gave the Yes campaign a narrow lead and the only poll that gave them over 40%, in fact just seen a IPSOS MORI poll on the STV News Aberdeen Yes 32% No 57% Undecided 11%

[HardyBamboo]

No sure about trusting panelbase, they did the one poll commissioned by the SNP that gave the Yes campaign a narrow lead and the only poll that gave them over 40%, in fact just seen a IPSOS MORI poll on the STV News Aberdeen Yes 32% No 57% Undecided 11%

As Renton said, Methodology is everything, I don't think you can assume anything - usually best to wait until the stats. guys analyse the data sets.

[H_B]

As Renton said, Methodology is everything, I don't think you can assume anything - usually best to wait until the stats. guys analyse the data sets.

By this do you mean wait for WoS to spin the results to show how being miles behind actually shows Yes are winning?

[LinkinFighter]

I honestly think it will be around 40% yes on the day.

[ecto]

I honestly think it will be around 40% yes on the day.

Judging by the poll I seen tonight, 40% might be the best they can hope for

[Burma]

Judging by the poll I seen tonight, 40% might be the best they can hope for

Seven months (or so still to go).

Seven months before the Scottish 2011 Elections the polls had Labour on 40% and the SNP on 34%

Six months before the 2011 elections the polls had Labour on 41% and the SNP on 31%

Four months before the 2011 elections the polls had Labour on a massive 49% and the SNP on 33%. This election is a done deal said the press editorials.

Three months before the 2011 elections one poll showed the SNP on 37% and Labour on 36% - a rogue poll proclaimed the analysts

This "rogue poll" theory was fully vindicated when, two weeks later, the polls showed Labour back in control with 41% and the SNP on a laughable 32% - a cakewalk the journalists informed us.

Two months before the 2011 elections and the campaign was well and truly over for the SNP with the polls showing Labour on a very impressive and very consistent 44% and the SNP losing support left right and centre with a pathetic 29%. Alex Salmond and his seperatist agenda had been well and truly torpedoed.

Final result : Labour - 32% SNP 45%

[ecto]

Seven months (or so still to go).

Seven months before the Scottish 2011 Elections the polls had Labour on 40% and the SNP on 34%

Six months before the 2011 elections the polls had Labour on 41% and the SNP on 31%

Four months before the 2011 elections the polls had Labour on a massive 49% and the SNP on 33%. This election is a done deal said the press editorials.

Three months before the 2011 elections one poll showed the SNP on 37% and Labour on 36% - a rogue poll proclaimed the analysts

This "rogue poll" theory was fully vindicated when, two weeks later, the polls showed Labour back in control with 41% and the SNP on a laughable 32% - a cakewalk the journalists informed us.

Two months before the 2011 elections and the campaign was well and truly over for the SNP with the polls showing Labour on a very impressive and very consistent 44% and the SNP losing support left right and centre with a pathetic 29%. Alex Salmond and his seperatist agenda had been well and truly torpedoed.

Final result : Labour - 32% SNP 45%

Lightning striking twice, that is a reach, but if it gets you through, who am I to pass judgement

[Jamaldo]

I think it will be incredibly close. Anyone saying it will be a landslide for either side is quite simply over-confident.

I think it will be a 52% - 48% for either side.

[Burma]

Lightning striking twice, that is a reach, but if it gets you through, who am I to pass judgement

"It cant possibly happen again - just cant and wont" - hey whatever gives you hope.

[Fotbawmad]

I think it will be incredibly close. Anyone saying it will be a landslide for either side is quite simply over-confident.

I think it will be a 52% - 48% for either side.

It will probably be 55-45. Right now, if there was a vote tomorrow I think the No vote would get somewhere in the high 50's to low 60's. However, once we get into more civil live televised debates come May, then I'm confident votes will flip. A no/don't know voter is far more likely to change their allegiance than the other way around.

Edited March 3, 2014 by Fotbawmad

[ecto]

It will probably be 55-45. Right now, if there was a vote tomorrow I think the No vote would get somewhere in the high 50's to low 60's. However, once we get into more civil live televised debates come May, then I'm confident votes will flip. A no/don't know voter is far more likely to change their allegiance than the other way around.

An awful lot of faith been put on swaying the don't knows and the wavering no's, and if the vote was tomorrow think the gap would be wider

Edited March 3, 2014 by ecto

[Confidemus]

An awful lot of faith been put on swaying the don't knows and the wavering no's, and if the vote was tomorrow think the gap would be wider

And I think if I had a pet giraffe I would call it David.

But I don't, so I won't.

Hypothesise all you want, there's only one result that counts.

[joozy]

Yes is still available at around 9/2 on betfair. I'm sure those who are so confident that the polls are wrong will be lumping on big style.