Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Mr Bairn]

Seven months (or so still to go).

Seven months before the Scottish 2011 Elections the polls had Labour on 40% and the SNP on 34%

Six months before the 2011 elections the polls had Labour on 41% and the SNP on 31%

Four months before the 2011 elections the polls had Labour on a massive 49% and the SNP on 33%. This election is a done deal said the press editorials.

Three months before the 2011 elections one poll showed the SNP on 37% and Labour on 36% - a rogue poll proclaimed the analysts

This "rogue poll" theory was fully vindicated when, two weeks later, the polls showed Labour back in control with 41% and the SNP on a laughable 32% - a cakewalk the journalists informed us.

Two months before the 2011 elections and the campaign was well and truly over for the SNP with the polls showing Labour on a very impressive and very consistent 44% and the SNP losing support left right and centre with a pathetic 29%. Alex Salmond and his seperatist agenda had been well and truly torpedoed.

Final result : Labour - 32% SNP 45%

This is much, much different. 2011 was about electing a leader for the Scottish parliament for the next half decade, this referendum is about breaking up our country. People aren't going to change their minds so rashly about this.

[Burma]

This is much, much different. 2011 was about electing a leader for the Scottish parliament for the next half decade, this referendum is about breaking up our country. People aren't going to change their minds so rashly about this.

I wouldnt say that taking seven months to make a decision is "rash"

[renton]

No sure about trusting panelbase, they did the one poll commissioned by the SNP that gave the Yes campaign a narrow lead and the only poll that gave them over 40%, in fact just seen a IPSOS MORI poll on the STV News Aberdeen Yes 32% No 57% Undecided 11%

And Ipsos are the only ones showing such a huge No lead (and smallest undecided) and yes, who commissions it makes a difference (because they influence what is asked and when) in the case you mention, the referendum question was asked third after two leading questions designed to get participants thinking in a certain way and/or the lack of preamble to the referendum question (i,e, it was just the actual question on the day): all the pollsters, to some extent or another use preambles to the question which can have an effect (given the bun fight over the actual question to be asked, you can see why YouGov's 'leaving the UK' preamble, alongside 'if the vote were held tomorrow' could shape particpants thoughts). Nevertheless, IPSOS are the outlier now, ICM, Survation and to a lesser extent YouGov, are all far closer to Panelbase than to Ipsos now so the actual No lead is probably more like the 11-12% in those polls than the 25% seen in the Ipsos poll.

[renton]

I would like to see the numbers of those polled in each of the deprivation levels rather than the 2 extremes.

How do you get all the numbers for all groups in this poll?

Pollsters publish their data tables to differing degrees.

[renton]

This is much, much different. 2011 was about electing a leader for the Scottish parliament for the next half decade, this referendum is about breaking up our country. People aren't going to change their minds so rashly about this.

Well, actually it's about Scots re-asserting sovereignty over their nation, but thanks for the very vivid demonstration of how different wording can give different perceptions.

[LinkinFighter]

This is much, much different. 2011 was about electing a leader for the Scottish parliament for the next half decade, this referendum is about breaking up our country. People aren't going to change their minds so rashly about this.

You're so precious. "Breaking up our country"

[Lex]

This is much, much different. 2011 was about electing a leader for the Scottish parliament for the next half decade, this referendum is about breaking up our country. People aren't going to change their minds so rashly about this.

Exactly. Anyone comparing a yes/no two choice referendum with a multi-party parliamentary election with a PR voting system is really failing to grasp what this is all about.

Labour voters drifted to parties like the Lib Dems and the Greens in 2010 as the parties base support was split after the Iraq war and various other problems with the then ruling UK party. You can't exactly split the no vote between the devo max and the scrapping the Scottish Parliament completely options, because neither exist, therefore it's a totally duff comparison.

Not surprised to see the usual rhetoric coming from the yes camp. As soon as any poll showing even a 1 point swing towards yes comes out they're on it like seagulls on a packet of chips claiming a sea change and a clear shift in momentum. As soon as a poll comes out showing the opposite we get all the ' oh well it's all about how the data is interpreted blah blah blah '.

The reality is they were getting humped before the white paper, they're still getting humped after the white paper and they will get humped on polling day. I think they will struggle to get 40%.

[renton]

Exactly. Anyone comparing a yes/no two choice referendum with a multi-party parliamentary election with a PR voting system is really failing to grasp what this is all about.

Labour voters drifted to parties like the Lib Dems and the Greens in 2010 as the parties base support was split after the Iraq war and various other problems with the then ruling UK party. You can't exactly split the no vote between the devo max and the scrapping the Scottish Parliament completely options, because neither exist, therefore it's a totally duff comparison.

Not surprised to see the usual rhetoric coming from the yes camp. As soon as any poll showing even a 1 point swing towards yes comes out they're on it like seagulls on a packet of chips claiming a sea change and a clear shift in momentum. As soon as a poll comes out showing the opposite we get all the ' oh well it's all about how the data is interpreted blah blah blah '.

The reality is they were getting humped before the white paper, they're still getting humped after the white paper and they will get humped on polling day. I think they will struggle to get 40%.

Be fair now, it's not like you were all over the thread with your in depth analysis when Survation and ICM showed huge Yes swings in January and PB showed a 2 point drop in NO in February - but as soon as Ipsos shows a number you like, you are back in here with your usual 'gonna get humped' rhetoric.

[Jamaldo]

Exactly. Anyone comparing a yes/no two choice referendum with a multi-party parliamentary election with a PR voting system is really failing to grasp what this is all about.

Labour voters drifted to parties like the Lib Dems and the Greens in 2010 as the parties base support was split after the Iraq war and various other problems with the then ruling UK party. You can't exactly split the no vote between the devo max and the scrapping the Scottish Parliament completely options, because neither exist, therefore it's a totally duff comparison.

Not surprised to see the usual rhetoric coming from the yes camp. As soon as any poll showing even a 1 point swing towards yes comes out they're on it like seagulls on a packet of chips claiming a sea change and a clear shift in momentum. As soon as a poll comes out showing the opposite we get all the ' oh well it's all about how the data is interpreted blah blah blah '.

The reality is they were getting humped before the white paper, they're still getting humped after the white paper and they will get humped on polling day. I think they will struggle to get 40%.

You're the one who created this thread about fucking polls! You can not seriously be criticising anyone from the Yes side for taking heart from any polls that show a swing to Yes. It absolutely stinks of hypocrisy.

[ayrmad]

I'm disappointed that IPSOS-MORI only questioned ~36% of SNP voters, 44% v 56% isn't scary enough for the NO campaign.

[Confidemus]

Funny that Lex didn't respond to the criticism.

The epitome of a fair weather poster. Along with HB.

[Ivo den Bieman]

Lex is at the wind up. Nothing more, nothing less. It's obvious. When you don't bite, he goes away.

This IPSOS poll is the most depressing for a while.

[1320Lichtie]

I would absolutely love to get a YES victory here, it would be the start of an exciting new chapter for Scotland. You can blast these polls about all you like, the feeling I am getting via social media/speaking to people is that people want change, I think YES will win. On the day every single person who wants a YES vote will turn up, can you say the same of NO? Im not to sure a lot of the NO people will have the same passion for it as the YES lot will. Hopefully be a good long weekend celebrating come September 19th.

[Deputy Keeper]

You can make that a double celebration 1320Lichtie, as Arbroath move clear at the top of the Championship on the 20th Be sure to enjoy before the alarm clock goes off!

[1320Lichtie]

You can make that a double celebration 1320Lichtie, as Arbroath move clear at the top of the Championship on the 20th Be sure to enjoy before the alarm clock goes off!

Watch this space... Im confident. And is the Championship the new name for Division 3 now then, ayeee?

[Deputy Keeper]

Happy to see the Lichties in the Championship, but hopefully not in an independent Scotland Felt we rather robbed you of a deserved place in the First Division (sic) back in May 2012 and it's taken you a while to recover.

[Lex]

Be fair now, it's not like you were all over the thread with your in depth analysis when Survation and ICM showed huge Yes swings in January and PB showed a 2 point drop in NO in February - but as soon as Ipsos shows a number you like, you are back in here with your usual 'gonna get humped' rhetoric.

You got your tiny wee jump after the big and much heralded white paper came out, now it's gone after the better together campaign fought back. Support for yes is (unsurprisingly) falling given all the uncertainty regarding the currency and the EU. You're not only failing to make any head way, you're actually losing ground. As some yes voters have said in this thread, 60%-40% is a realistic prediction for September, although 70-30 wouldn't surprise me. Yes is getting humped, and it's absolutely fantastic to watch

You're the one who created this thread about fucking polls! You can not seriously be criticising anyone from the Yes side for taking heart from any polls that show a swing to Yes. It absolutely stinks of hypocrisy.

I agree that the reaction of the yes campaigners and supporters to differing polls stinks of hypocrisy, good point. It's as if they can't face up to the reality of their impending defeat?

An STV journo asked wee Eck a good question last night. Words to the effect of ' Are you thinking about managing defeat now? ' Wee Ecks face was a picture for a second, he just looked a bit sad, and it's clear that's exactly what he's thinking about, and who can blame him. He then snapped back into delusion mode and went for the ' we will win blah blah ' diatribe. Poor guy, wonder if he will retire after the defeat? He certainly should, he's clearly struggling badly.

Lex is at the wind up. Nothing more, nothing less. It's obvious. When you don't bite, he goes away.

This IPSOS poll is the most depressing for a while.

You say i'm trolling, then link to the exact same poll i linked too.

Are you trolling too?

I would absolutely love to get a YES victory here, it would be the start of an exciting new chapter for Scotland. You can blast these polls about all you like, the feeling I am getting via social media/speaking to people is that people want change, I think YES will win. On the day every single person who wants a YES vote will turn up, can you say the same of NO? Im not to sure a lot of the NO people will have the same passion for it as the YES lot will. Hopefully be a good long weekend celebrating come September 19th.

Look out, facebook boy is back

One interesting part of the poll i and Ivo linked too was the disparity between deprived areas and affluent areas:

It's something i had noticed when talking to people about the debate, but had never seen in a poll. The more affluent they are, the more likely they are to be behind the union, the less affluent, the more likely they are to be separatists. In the nations most affluent areas support for yes is astoundingly low, only 20%. Anyone have any idea why?

[Tom McB]

It will probably be 55-45. Right now, if there was a vote tomorrow I think the No vote would get somewhere in the high 50's to low 60's. However, once we get into more civil live televised debates come May, then I'm confident votes will flip. A no/don't know voter is far more likely to change their allegiance than the other way around.

Wishful thinking alert.

[Tom McB]

I would absolutely love to get a YES victory here, it would be the start of an exciting new chapter for Scotland. You can blast these polls about all you like, the feeling I am getting via social media/speaking to people is that people want change, I think YES will win. On the day every single person who wants a YES vote will turn up, can you say the same of NO? Im not to sure a lot of the NO people will have the same passion for it as the YES lot will. Hopefully be a good long weekend celebrating come September 19th.

I remeber hearing the smae social media stuff around tehe Time to GW Bush's electtion.

Self selecting groups are rarely reflective of the populace.

[Enigma]

Anyone have any idea why?

Surly it's pretty obvious. People who are already doing well won't want the change 'Why bother. I'm doing fine already. Things might be worse' where as those who aren't will as the current system isn't working for them 'What have I got to loose. Things might be better'.