H_B Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Even better, the tit tried to claim victory after the SNP bught a poll. http://www.arcofprosperity.org/victory-forecast/ However, Monday morning I woke up to this press release from the SNP: The most recently sampled independence referendum opinion poll puts support for Yes a point ahead of No — at 44 per cent to 43 per cent, with Don’t Know at 13 per cent — as we enter the month of a year to go until next September’s vote. It’s somewhat frustrating being off by a day, but I still think it was a pretty decent prediction. Good news huh? Oh...maybe not... Still, if at first you don't succeed, discredit the polls yuo don't like the results of, alter the methodology and try again! 1) If we ignore the YouGov poll (there were multiple problems with it, as described here and here), and if we adjust the TNS poll to take the 2011 Holyrood votes in account (see this post by Calum Cashley), we’re still on track for a big Yes victory, although it probably won’t quite reach 2-to-1 territory. 2) I would have liked the polls to be converging at this point, but they clearly aren’t, so instead of producing a plot with new trend lines, I’ve added the newest polls to the old graph with the old trend lines. (I’ve added both the original and the adjusted versions of the TNS poll.) It’s clear that the No vote share isn’t declining quite as fast as I predicted back in April, no matter which polls we look at. However, the Yes vote share is potentially rising faster than predicted (if we look only at the most optimistic polls). Until we get to a point where the opinion polls start converging again, I think this is the best we can do. Are any Yes voters discouraged - not to worry It’s definitely looking like a decisive Yes victory, but perhaps not quite as big a landslide as I thought in April. So, sadly, the landslide is off, but vistory is still going to be decisive 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vacamion Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 First Minister on the BBC this morning suggesting that Yes has 45% in the latest polls. He didn't elaborate on where that assertion came from and Andrew Marr was too busy giving him an easy time of it to enquire further. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 First Minister on the BBC this morning suggesting that Yes has 45% in the latest polls. He didn't elaborate on where that assertion came from and Andrew Marr was too busy giving him an easy time of it to enquire further. Think he may be referring to the poll in the Daily Record that had the Yes vote at 39%, No at 48% and the DKs 13%, but if you take out the DKs, it gives you Yes 45%, No 55% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I love how the nat clown collective seem to like pretending these DKs don't exist 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I love how the nat clown collective seem to like pretending these DKs don't exist Standard polling technique, dickhead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 (edited) Standard polling technique, dickhead. Oh so we're reverting to personal insults now? Independence is surely dead Edited March 16, 2014 by Mr Bairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Oh they exist OK but they don't have that option on the voting paper. Until they decide on which of the two alternatives they want they don't count at this stage. Why is that unreasonable? Because it boosts the numbers for the Yes campaign? Because, most of them will vote one way or the other. It's better to interpolate them either 50-50 or in proportion to the original figures than to exclude them imo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Bojangles Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Because, most of them will vote one way or the other. It's better to interpolate them either 50-50 or in proportion to the original figures than to exclude them imo Uh....if you assume they'll be 50-50, wouldn't it just have the same effect as excluding them? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Uh....if you assume they'll be 50-50, wouldn't it just have the same effect as excluding them? The boy is an absolute clown, don't even try speaking to him. Will get you nowhere! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Uh....if you assume they'll be 50-50, wouldn't it just have the same effect as excluding them? No. Example Yes 40 No 42 DK 18 If you exclude the DKs then yes is (40/82)*100 = 48.7% If you split them 50-50 then yes is 49% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Oh so we're reverting to personal insults now? Independence is surely dead As is the space between your ears. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Bojangles Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yeah, but it's always going to be an extremely close approximation. The poll that you were bemoaning it's use in only had a difference of 0.1% or so. It seems like this is just something to moan about to get people to think that the other side is pulling a fast one while being able to claim what you're saying is technically true if it's pointed out. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 (edited) As is the space between your ears.No' as big as yours . . . Edited March 16, 2014 by DeeTillEhDeh 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Funny thing is that a month ago the DKs were seen as the "battleground", but now they seemed to being discounted and ignored, definite change of tact -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Funny thing is that a month ago the DKs were seen as the "battleground", but now they seemed to being discounted and ignored, definite change of tact Balls. And it's tack not tact. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Balls. And it's tack not tact. You are right its "tack", excuse my bad grammar, oh and it is not "balls", just look at how the SNP are using the polls, enough said 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forza ton Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Oh so we're reverting to personal insults now? Independence is surely dead Says the guy calling us clowns. I don't think you're a dickhead mate, i think you're a fanny. Spot the difference? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Balls. And it's tack not tact. A good shipping termp Parp. Did you learn that when you were studying about the English naval blockade of Darien in college? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You are right its "tack", excuse my bad grammar, oh and it is not "balls", just look at how the SNP are using the polls, enough said Which part of "standard polling technique" did you not understand? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackIsleBud Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 A good shipping termp Parp. Did you learn that when you were studying about the English naval blockade of Darien in college? Still acting the snide c**t I see.... Just like the rest of your 'NO' BritNat Knobhead campaigners. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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