AUFC90 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 So, wait a minute. You're saying that the ex UK defence secretary and ex Secretary General of NATO is not an expert on defence and international relations? Take a deep breath and listen to yourself for goodness sake, even for the Nat clown collective that is absolutely ridiculous. The Supreme Allied commander you cite takes orders from the Secretary General, the post Lord Robertson held. Goodness me, one of the biggest loads of tripe I've read on here. Was Churchill not an expert in defence either? A Scottish Labour politician is not an expert in defence..... Unlucky. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 A Scottish Labour politician is not an expert in defence..... Unlucky. Yeah ok. : Could not make this up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 How does this affect momentum? Surprised not to see this poll mentioned on here by the Nats, with an updated Poll of Polls link? However, this is the second poll in a row – following Panelbase’s poll for Wings over Scotland published on Sunday – to show that the winter’s increase in Yes support may have come to a halt now that spring finally seems to be with us. That is not the impression the Yes side would like to see created. They would prefer to see their support increase month on month – a movement with apparent sufficient momentum to take them past the winning post by September. They must fear that while the winter’s gains may have been consolidated, their further progress is now stalled. http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/04/has-the-yes-sides-progress-stalled/ No doubt, after the brief NCC Curtice love-in when he became a respected psephologist when he was delivering good news for Yes, he will again become a clueless Unionist crony with an agenda. Momentum on both sides? None of the sides are 50% plus so in essence that's a "problem" for both at the moment. Campaign period now crucial for both sides as that's when real movement will be seen on who will eventually win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 (edited) Yeah ok. : Could not make this up. Well explain yourself then. In which way can Robertson be described as a defence expert as opposed to generals and the like ? You're right .... Could not make this up. It's shame Barosso didn't get his job as a "defence expert ". Edited April 10, 2014 by AUFC90 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 More good news. Support from separation is down 2 points from a poll conducted by the same company a month ago. The people of Scotland really do believe we are better together, I can't wait for September It's a 1% net increase in No, with No also having lost 1% of their previous number and Yes 2% - more or less what it shows is that the polls haven't really shifted in the last month. Yes is in the range of 37-41%, No in the region of 45 - 48% with then online pollsters, on it's own it looks like sample to sample variation, just as the last two panelbase polls varied by 1% - it's not so much real movement as it is stagnation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 Well explain yourself then. In which way can Robertson be described as a defence expert as opposed to generals and the like ? You're right .... Could not make this up. If you don't know the difference between politicians who decide what wars we fight and generals who fight them then I can't help you. I suggest you read a history book, any will do. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 It's a 1% net increase in No, with No also having lost 1% of their previous number and Yes 2% - more or less what it shows is that the polls haven't really shifted in the last month. Yes is in the range of 37-41%, No in the region of 45 - 48% with then online pollsters, on it's own it looks like sample to sample variation, just as the last two panelbase polls varied by 1% - it's not so much real movement as it is stagnation. Well i don't know what your definition of ' real movement' is. This poll shows better together increasing it's already big lead. Great news. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 None of the sides are 50% plus so in essence that's a "problem" for both at the moment. Yes they are - No are. I thought we now excluded DKs when we did the numbers? Like here :- 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 So, wait a minute. You're saying that the ex UK defence secretary and ex Secretary General of NATO is not an expert on defence and international relations? Take a deep breath and listen to yourself for goodness sake, even for the Nat clown collective that is absolutely ridiculous. The Supreme Allied commander you cite takes orders from the Secretary General, the post Lord Robertson held. Goodness me, one of the biggest loads of tripe I've read on here. Was Churchill not an expert in defence either? Well, actually though the SecGen is head of the allied civilian oversight of NATO, in practice SACEUR takes his orders from his own chain of command up to the joint chiefs (and hence to the US president, advised as he is by the joint chiefs), just as other officers of other nationalities do as well - that's why you got the situation in Kosovo in 99 where a British 3 star general refused to obey an order from a 4 star US general, despite being under his explicit command. In practice the Sec gen is a facilitator, he's not 'head of NATO' in any meaningful capacity. All of which is besides the point - appeals to authority are not an adequate substitute for real data. If Scottish independence is so bad for western security, then show us the data, the numbers that make the case. "it's coz I say so" is not an arugment anyone wil ltkae seriously, regardless of background and experience. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 I'm confused - are we now saying we look at the actual initial figures, and DON'T exclude Don't Knows? That seems a real shift in what we've seen over the past few weeks? Why would we exclude the DKs on previous polling Colkitto, and now include DKs with this one? It's almost like you were picking and choosing your methodology depending on which numbers looked best? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Yes they are - No are. I thought we now excluded DKs when we did the numbers? Like here :- I didn't know 'we' had an agreed methodology. Personally I always include the DKs. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 I didn't know 'we' had an agreed methodology. Personally I always include the DKs. Funny... I saw a lot of posts saying Yes were in the mid or even highish 40s in recent polling. That clearly was excluding DKs. But now, with this latest poll, apparently neither side is over 50%. Because we aren't adjusting for DKs? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 (edited) For example :- http://www.yesscotland.net/news/new-poll-yes-47-strong-majority-would-vote-yes-indyref-if-better Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes: 47% No: 53% (exc dk) This is the figure we saw breathlessly repeated on here. Edited April 10, 2014 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Well i don't know what your definition of ' real movement' is. This poll shows better together increasing it's already big lead. Great news. The problem being that poll to poll variances can swamp real movement. It's like a noisy, low amplitude signal - any single sampled point could show a large variance, it's only when looking at the whole signal that you see the pattern. In this case Survation went 37/39/37 ove rit's last three polls, suggesting that 37 rather than 39 is the right number and that yes has stagnated in those Survation polls over the last month or so. If survation's next poll shows a Yes number of 35 (for example) then this is evidence of a turning tide, but it won't be until the poll after that that you can confirm it. If you look at it from the other direction, every single poll has shown movement within the margin of error for such polls, so comparing each poll to it's immediate predecessor (N-1) makes it look like it's always in the margin of error (i.e. the noise) it's only when you compare it with the N-2 and N-3 samples that you can get a 2nd or 3rd order filter effect where the noise is reduced to show a consistent trend in the signal. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Funny... I saw a lot of posts saying Yes were in the mid or even highish 40s in recent polling. That clearly was excluding DKs. But now, with this latest poll, apparently neither side is over 50%. Because we aren't adjusting for DKs? You ar ethrowing a general criticism out into the ether there, what's the point you are trying to make. Some people include DKs, others don't - there are sound reasons for considering both, on the one hand is the situation on the ground as it is, the other is that you are trying to see a picture of what will happen when DK is not an option for people (and effectively apportioning a 50/50 split to the DKs) I always look at the include figures because the situation on the ground is the more accurate portrayal. You won't see DKs start to fall off until the last few weeks. It's true though that people spin numbers, but that's the same on both sides. The amount of times Unionist politicians have derided polls as outliers becuase it didn't fit their agenda is incredible, or the times they will compare two different polling methodologies in order to twist the lead figures. Both sides are at it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Some people include DKs, others don't - there are sound reasons for considering both, Eh no. Some people include DKs in Poll 1, exclude DKs in Poll 2 and include DKs again in Poll 3. So which is it? If we are including DKs in this Survation poll, I'm fine with that. But then why were we excluding DKs in the last Panelbase poll? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 If you don't know the difference between politicians who decide what wars we fight and generals who fight them then I can't help you. I suggest you read a history book, any will do. Exactly.. There is a difference. They decide, then the military experts formulate a plan. George Robertson is not and never will be a defence expert. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 It's true though that people spin numbers, but that's the same on both sides. The amount of times Unionist politicians I'm not interested in what "Unionist politicians" do, or indeed "Separatist politicians". I'm talking about posters on here, who report poll data. If they choose to do this, they are going to be pointed at and laughed at when they exhibit complete double standards. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Eh no. Some people include DKs in Poll 1, exclude DKs in Poll 2 and include DKs again in Poll 3. So which is it? If we are including DKs in this Survation poll, I'm fine with that. But then why were we excluding DKs in the last Panelbase poll? Were we? Did you? I didn't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Yes they are - No are. I thought we now excluded DKs when we did the numbers? Like here :- Eh? Did I miss the new P&B rule that you cannot include "don't knows"? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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