ICTChris Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I can't see there being any appetite for conflict between two largely friendly nations, outwith of political extremists and some sections of ethnic minorities. Two anti-war rallies have been broken up in Moscow by police already today. During the first Chechen War the mothers of servicemen were a big political force in Russia. The fact that the Russian state were utterly incompetent and were sending young conscripts off to be butchered is something that's unlikely to be repeated in Crimea however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not sure on the little economic value bit. With shale gas fracking Ukraine could be self-sufficient in natural gas in a few years time. Most of that lies under the Kharkov and Donetsk regions. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/business/global/ukraine-signs-drilling-deal-with-shell-for-shale-gas.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not sure on the little economic value bit. With shale gas fracking Ukraine could be self-sufficient in natural gas in a few years time. Most of that lies under the Kharkov and Donetsk regions. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/business/global/ukraine-signs-drilling-deal-with-shell-for-shale-gas.html Ah, so Russia's interest in that area may not be just to safeguard the safety of ethnic Russians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ya Bezzer! Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ah, so Russia's interest in that area may not be just to safeguard the safety of ethnic Russians. First and foremost Russia's interest is to maintain the Crimea. There may be a multitude of other plus and minuses but essentially what it comes down to. My concern is that the wacky end of the Ukrainian nationalist movement draws the west into this conflict but as it stands I think Russia has a regional interest here to protect ethnic kinsfolk during a volatile period for a limited period, provided it doesn't over step any marks, ie goes into areas where it does not have popular support. After all if Ukrainians can legitimately, by popular movement, move away from Russia influence, then areas like the Crimea also have the right to move away from Ukrainian influence. Ultimately it should be down to ordinary people as to who rules them and if that means some kind of partition of Ukraine or some other political agreement has to be made then so be it. Remember that it's a stated policy of Svoboda, among various other abhorrent aims, to abolish Crimean autonomy. The West has to be very careful here because we should not be helping quasi Fascist goons like Svoboda set up control of a state. The consequences could be devastating. Remember, this is a political party that until fairly recently had a swastika as it's political symbol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlyerTon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Can't see the west going in to help much. From Wikipedia According to the Federation of American Scientists, an organization that assesses nuclear weapon stockpiles, in 2013, Russia possessed an estimated 8,500 total nuclear warheads of which 1,800 were strategically operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossHogg Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Russian parliament just approved military action in Ukraine.......thats already underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossHogg Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Can't see the west going in to help much. From Wikipedia According to the Federation of American Scientists, an organization that assesses nuclear weapon stockpiles, in 2013, Russia possessed an estimated 8,500 total nuclear warheads of which 1,800 were strategically operational Obama trying to be a hard man. .what a fud..considering Putin told him to shove his red line up his arse over Syria and that his cabinet were fukin liars...what chance Ukraine? ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/03/02/putins-pyrrhic-crimea-campaign/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Putting yourself in Russian shoes, you can see why they've taken this action... They regard the original government in Kiev as legitimate, and think it was overthrown by the mob. They regard the new government as overly against their interests, and overly in favour of the West's - and the avowed policies of some of its elements are distasteful to them. They have significant military interests in the Crimea, where most people are of Russia inclination. Moscow's view of the West is that we are hypocrites... supporting and recognising an unfair overthrow of a legitimate government, including by unpleasant elements, and happy to coax Ukraine into our sphere of influence at the expense of Russia's. But not letting Crimea do the same in reverse. Also we've hardly been adverse to intervention in the last 20yrs when it's suited us, so they think we're applying double-standards. So when you put yourself in that mindset, you can see why the Russians have done what they have. They feel they've interests on the ground in Crimea, which require protection, and they want to demonstrate that they won't (in their eyes) let neighbours sail-off into the West's arms without a fight. What doesn't make sense to me is why Russia would now escalate this into a shooting war, or occupation in the eastern mainland, as some seem to fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlyerTon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26405082 16:06: BBC Monitoring reports: The Ukrainian State Border Service's regional HQ in Simferopol has been stormed and captured by "unidentified armed men", the service says in a statement circulated by UNIAN news agency. The headquarters of the Simferopol border detachment has also been taken. 16:07: According to the report, the attack was started by a group of plain-clothed men wearing bullet-proof vests and helmets, who were later joined by members of the Russian military. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eednud Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 From BBC Newly appointed head of Ukrainian Navy swears allegiance to Crimea in presence of its unrecognised prime minister More to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RT Claiming most Ukrainian defence forces on Crimea have resigned. Seems they haven't been paid for a few months either. I can see a guarantee over Crimean autonomy and maintaining of Russian bases as a cornerstone to any political resolution. Seems the Russians are building a replacement for Sevastopol along the black sea coast at novorussiya anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not sure I would take anything RT reports at face value on this. Suspect things aren't going as Putin expected so far. If things were following the usual voting preference split in Ukrainian elections the whole of southern and eastern Ukraine would have swung over to a pro-Moscow stance, but that isn't even close to happening at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just because people speak Russian doesn't mean that they want to leave Ukraine and join RUssia. Yulia Tymoshenko is a native Russian speaker, for example, and the far-right group Right Sector, who were part of the protests in Kiev, are primarily Russian speaking. There are demonstrations against Russian involvement in places that are RUssian speaking - Dnipro, Odessa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Szamo's_Ammo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Would like to see the USSR come back. They could do a Big Reunion series on ITV2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Would like to see the USSR come back. They could do a Big Reunion series on ITV2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Polish troops are mobilising at their border with Ukraine and the Turkish government have expressed concern. That's another reason why this is a larger deal than the Abkhazia and South Ossetia war in 2008 - much bigger potential for the war to destabilise the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForzaDundee Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Why do people in this country pretend to have any idea of what's going on in Ukraine? I'm all for keeping informed on current world affairs but when your primary source of information is a BBC or Sky News live stream you've got no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Why do people in this country pretend to have any idea of what's going on in Ukraine? I'm all for keeping informed on current world affairs but when your primary source of information is a BBC or Sky News live stream you've got no chance. People can take an interest in other countries - read blogs, follow news etc. I am quite interested in post-Soviet Russia and post-Soviet conflicts, and keep an eye on anything to do with it. I'm a complete amateur though, I don't profess to know much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karpaty Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Why do people in this country pretend to have any idea of what's going on in Ukraine? I'm all for keeping informed on current world affairs but when your primary source of information is a BBC or Sky News live stream you've got no chance. Ukrainian media are extremely biased, for example I seen one news story today that was about Russian buses coming into Ukraine filled with troops, but the picture they had attached were German registered coaches. I doubt the Ukrainian people know exactly what is going on at government level, nothing new there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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