Referendum result prediction game

[git-intae-thum]

I'm probably going to get trolled for saying this, but I'm starting to wonder if we might actually see an even higher No vote than the polls are suggesting.

I spoke to about ten guys over the weekend on another forum. All of them are Scottish males from 19 to early fifties, and only 2 of them are voting yes. The other 8 are voting No, although 3 of them say they could be persuaded to vote Yes at some point in a future referendum. The forum we discussed this on was a small forum of about 20 regulars, half of which are Scots, and who basically post on every thread that pops up because it's so small. These 20 guys have all been posting on the site for 5-6 years so we basically all know each other pretty well.

The feeling I get is that like on here the Yes voters make all the noise but not only do you have your handful of passionate No voters, but most of the "quiet" people are actually No voters.

It wouldn't surprise me if No get past 60% now, maybe even closer to a 2:1 ratio on the day than 50-50

You still voting yes Mr Bairn?

[ScottR96]

I'm not basing this on much, but I have a feeling there could be a very late swing towards Yes which might see it through. I can just imagine people standing at the polling booth having not fully made up their minds and just thinking 'f**k it, let's do it'. I may be clutching at straws with that thought, but it's just the impression I get off of a few people when I discuss it with them.

For example my mum is erring on the side of caution with a 'better the devil you know' mentality and says she'll be voting No. Even though she's quite open about it, she's also admitted that when she gets into a discussion about it she swings towards Yes.

I just don't understand how the polls show a clear No majority, however canvassing, general discussion and the amount of Yes posters/stickers/badges on display paint the opposite picture. I change my prediction on the result almost daily, I genuinely believe it is far too close to call.

[Confidemus]

I'm not basing this on much, but I have a feeling there could be a very late swing towards Yes which might see it through. I can just imagine people standing at the polling booth having not fully made up their minds and just thinking 'f**k it, let's do it'. I may be clutching at straws with that thought, but it's just the impression I get off of a few people when I discuss it with them.

For example my mum is erring on the side of caution with a 'better the devil you know' mentality and says she'll be voting No. Even though she's quite open about it, she's also admitted that when she gets into a discussion about it she swings towards Yes.

I just don't understand how the polls show a clear No majority, however canvassing, general discussion and the amount of Yes posters/stickers/badges on display paint the opposite picture. I change my prediction on the result almost daily, I genuinely believe it is far too close to call.

Christ don't mention car stickers, you'll drive H_B into a state of apoplexy.

I remain confident of a Yes win. Again, the polls obviously show a No lead, but I truly think it isn't insurmountable and come September 18th, I think enough Scottish people will have pulled their heads out their arses to see that a Yes vote is the only sensible vote.

[Blaven]

Christ don't mention car stickers, you'll drive H_B into a state of apoplexy.

I remain confident of a Yes win. Again, the polls obviously show a No lead, but I truly think it isn't insurmountable and come September 18th, I think enough Scottish people will have pulled their heads out their arses to see that a Yes vote is the only sensible vote.

I wasn't all that into car stickers myself. But when I saw how much HB loved them, I thought, f*ck it, it's going on.

[1320Lichtie]

I just don't understand how the polls show a clear No majority, however canvassing, general discussion and the amount of Yes posters/stickers/badges on display paint the opposite picture. I change my prediction on the result almost daily, I genuinely believe it is far too close to call.

^

Exactly the same as me. In truth there's just far to many people all over Scotland to have a fucking scooby as to what the result will be. I know we on here and a lot of people are all caught up in the referendum but again there'll be a big lot of folk who just don't give a flying f**k either way.

f**k knows.

[ayrmad]

I wasn't all that into car stickers myself. But when I saw how much HB loved them, I thought, f*ck it, it's going on.

Oan the hoose noo, fcuk 'em.

[Blaven]

Oan the hoose noo, fcuk 'em.

Lion rampant flying proud too.

Looks beautiful.

[ayrmad]

Lion rampant flying proud too.

Looks beautiful.

I'm not usually the sort of person that pigeonholes myself in with groups of any kind or outwardly shows support for anything, this is too important to let the introverted side of my nature to take precedence, I know folks like H_B like to make it out like it's laughable and unimportant but anything that gives anyone a wee boost inside is good by me.

[H_B]

I saw 4 Yes car stickers today in Stirling.

However, and this is crucial, 2 were on the same car. So can anyone tell me if this counts as 3 or 4 for the purposes of the all important count?

With the car sticker count being so critical to the debate, it's important to establish these things.

[H_B]

I just don't understand how the polls show a clear No majority, however canvassing, general discussion and the amount of Yes posters/stickers/badges on display paint the opposite picture.

Mmm.. you see, polling is done by professional organisations. That's why it reflects reality.

Car stickers and Facebook likes aren't. And canvassing is just made up nonsense by groups with a dog in the fight. It's in the interests of the Yes campaign, for obvious reasons, to pretend that their wide canvassing really doesn't show the game is up. No siree.

[ecto]

I'm not basing this on much, but I have a feeling there could be a very late swing towards Yes which might see it through. I can just imagine people standing at the polling booth having not fully made up their minds and just thinking 'f**k it, let's do it'. I may be clutching at straws with that thought, but it's just the impression I get off of a few people when I discuss it with them.

For example my mum is erring on the side of caution with a 'better the devil you know' mentality and says she'll be voting No. Even though she's quite open about it, she's also admitted that when she gets into a discussion about it she swings towards Yes.

I just don't understand how the polls show a clear No majority, however canvassing, general discussion and the amount of Yes posters/stickers/badges on display paint the opposite picture. I change my prediction on the result almost daily, I genuinely believe it is far too close to call.

that is correct, you are basing this on much, looks a bit like basing on more hope than expectation

[ayrmad]

Mmm.. you see, polling is done by professional organisations. That's why it reflects reality.

Car stickers and Facebook likes aren't. And canvassing is just made up nonsense by groups with a dog in the fight. It's in the interests of the Yes campaign, for obvious reasons, to pretend that their wide canvassing really doesn't show the game is up. No siree.

A bit like the official polls then.

[Blaven]

I saw 4 Yes car stickers today in Stirling.

However, and this is crucial, 2 were on the same car. So can anyone tell me if this counts as 3 or 4 for the purposes of the all important count?

With the car sticker count being so critical to the debate, it's important to establish these things.

How many occupants where in the car?

[RedRob72]

Think Yes may well recieve a final boost but not enough to take the flag.

52-48 (78% t/o)

[Jamaldo]

Think Yes may well recieve a final boost but not enough to take the flag.

52-48 (78% t/o)

Phase 1 of the embarrassing climbdown begins.

[RedRob72]

Phase 1 of the embarrassing climbdown begins.

Don't see it as a climbdown, fairly sure I've said all along that I think it will be close, just not close enough for you.

[Blaven]

Don't see it as a climbdown, fairly sure I've said all along that I think it will be close, just not close enough for you.

^^^ desperate^^

HB put you up to this?

[scothmist]

It will be closer to 70-30 than 60-40 for No. That should kill off the first haggis.

[Blaven]

It will be closer to 70-30 than 60-40 for No. That should kill off the first haggis.

Are you a Haggis Scoth?

[Thumper]

The feeling I get is that like on here the Yes voters make all the noise but not only do you have your handful of passionate No voters, but most of the "quiet" people are actually No voters.

Even though you were indeed trolling, this is pretty commonly known. Left to themselves, people will always vote for the familiar. That's why Yes has engaged on such a large-scale grassroots engagement operation.

It's not No, it's status quo. Only a minority are actually vocal No supporters, mostly self-hating Tories and the sort of tribal Labour types that would rather have a handful of regional councils in their pockets for perpetuity than an actual national voice. The rest, the oft-maligned "not enough information" No vote, simply don't ever go looking for their own answers and so need everything brought to them. They get the No campaign's side from their morning paper and Reporting Scotland. They need to get the Yes side from people on the ground.