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Referendum result prediction game


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Turnout - 79%

No - 47%
Yes - 53%

Me - Happy and intoxicated

Lamont - Astonished

Local authority with highest % yes Vote - Dundee, then Angus, then Glasgow.
Local authority with the highest % No vote - Dumfries or Borders

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Turnout - 79%

No - 47%

Yes - 53%

Me - Happy and intoxicated

Lamont - Astonished

Local authority with highest % yes Vote - Dundee, then Angus, then Glasgow.

Local authority with the highest % No vote - Dumfries or Borders

She is very good at " astonished" .

She may even raise both penciled on eyebrows at the same time as her innards vacate out her rear end.

Sorry, is rear end too vulgar? Should I have said posterior?

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Turnout 81%

Yes - 43%

No - 57%

Local Area Highest for Yes - Dundee

Local Area Highest for No - Shetland, then West Ayrshire.

I think Dundee will be a yes but much depends on turnout. Some of the most pro-SNP areas (going by council elections) also happen to be areas with low voter turnout. It's all and fine winning council seats in Kirkton, Fintry, Whitfield and Douglas on low turnouts - disillusion with Labour in what used to be their heartlands is at a record high - it's a different kettle of fish when you aggregate votes right across the city. For Yes to win well in Dundee they'll need the sort of result they achieved in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election - not the result in this year's European elections.

To put it into perspective here is the SNP share of the vote in recent elections.

Dundee East UK elections (included part of Angus) 2005 - 37.2%

Dundee West UK elections 2005 - 30.0%

Dundee City East Scottish Parliament elections 2007- 49.1%

Dundee City West Scottish Parliament elections 2007 - 45.5%

DCC local elections 2007 - 40.0%

Dundee East UK elections (included part of Angus) 2010 - 37.8%

Dundee West UK elections 2010 - 28.9%

Dundee City East Scottish Parliament elections 2011 - 64%

Dundee City West Scottish Parliament elections 2011 - 57.6%

DCC local elections 2012 - 43.35%

European elections 2014 - 40.2%

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I've already had a prediction on another thread, but I'm changing it slightly here.

NAW 60%

Aye 40%

Turnout 80%

As for areas with most votes for each side, I think we'll see that the more affluent areas vote No, not so well off areas vote Aye. That's what has been coming across to me.

So, Aberdeen to be the biggest Naw area and Lanarkshire to be biggest Aye area.

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I've already had a prediction on another thread, but I'm changing it slightly here.

NAW 60%

Aye 40%

Turnout 80%

As for areas with most votes for each side, I think we'll see that the more affluent areas vote No, not so well off areas vote Aye. That's what has been coming across to me.

So, Aberdeen to be the biggest Naw area and Lanarkshire to be biggest Aye area.

I'd be very surprised if both those areas didn't return a 65/35 No

I'd say Dundee, Aberdeenshire, and Highland will return a vast Yes majority....whereas Edinburgh, Borders and Galloway will have a resounding No.

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