Referendum result prediction game

[Quentin Taranbino]

72% - No

28% - Yes

[Sloop John B]

No - 58

Yes - 42

I don't think the Yes campaign has changed enough minds unless something dramatic happens. However I do live in the Deep South of Scotland and Edinburgh which probably warps my optimism a fair bit.

Biggest No - Dumfries and Galloway

Biggest Yes - Moray

[sophia]

I do wonder about Yes supporters who pour vitriol on those voting No and I've heard it rather more than I'd expect. There used to be a tendency for SNP supporters to bemoan Scottish people for always voting Labour 'because their parents did or because they read the Daily Record' and it seems that the misanthropic low view of those who disagree with them is coming back for a minority of Yes supporters.

I recall seeing a much retweeted tweeted about a prominent Yes supporter finding it hard to live in a country with selfish No voters following the vote. I just find that utterly bizarre. I'm not sure why people would want to support independence, or even freedom as they see it, for a country full of selfish, lazy, cowardly idiots. Also, I find it very difficult to believe that there are people who don't have nearest and dearest who support a No vote.

At any level above a base rant, that doesn't seem to make much in the way of any kind of sense to me.

Maybe you'd be better served telling us, once again, about Tommy Sheridan's private life.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

I do wonder about Yes supporters who pour vitriol on those voting No and I've heard it rather more than I'd expect. There used to be a tendency for SNP supporters to bemoan Scottish people for always voting Labour 'because their parents did or because they read the Daily Record' and it seems that the misanthropic low view of those who disagree with them is coming back for a minority of Yes supporters.

I recall seeing a much retweeted tweeted about a prominent Yes supporter finding it hard to live in a country with selfish No voters following the vote. I just find that utterly bizarre. I'm not sure why people would want to support independence, or even freedom as they see it, for a country full of selfish, lazy, cowardly idiots. Also, I find it very difficult to believe that there are people who don't have nearest and dearest who support a No vote.

Probably the same reasons that (some) Unionists insist on calling people seperatists, nats, clowns, Nazis etc etc etc. As for SNP supporters slagging Labour supporters, have you seen how the Scottish Labour party behave themselves towards the SNP?

This isn't indended to be whataboutery btw, point is people sometimes use mean words about people they disagree with. Your attempt to portray this as a characterisitc of one side here is fooling nobody.

[___]

The media would have you believe that there is little support for independence, however seeing a fair amount of Yes stickers and car window stickers around the city makes me fairly hopeful that we can win.

[ICTChris]

I didn't say that one side does it more than another, I was talking about the low opinions expressed by a minority of the Yes side about No voters. I find it strange that people who are so optimistic about the future of our country can have such a low opinion of so many of the people who would live in an independent Scotland. Unless there is a huge turnaround or the polls have been wrong to a degree never seen before a Yes victory is going to be narrow, with near 50% of voters voting No. Are they all selfish, stupid, bigoted? Why do people want independence to live in a country with so many awful people?

You are right of course that you can't contain this tendency to only the Yes campaign. Misanthropy and contempt for voters is something that you see across modern politics. I remember reading John O'Farrell's account of his life as a Labour activist, Things Can Only Get Better, and he says that to win support for nuclear disarmament in the 1980s Labour should have said that they'd buy everyone a VHS video recorder if Trident was scrapped - stupid voters don't understand the need for world peace? Buy them a shiny shiny!

Maybe I'm naive but I thought that the Yes supporters would be less likely to fall into that thinking. It's easy to make a positive case for independence without the sourness. One major factor in this, though, is the medium. Forums like this and Twitter drive this kind of attitude and any encounter I've had with the Yes campaign in person hasn't seen any of these traits.

[ICTChris]

Paragraphs don't work on my phone. I'll edit them in later.

[Confidemus]

I didn't say that one side does it more than another, I was talking about the low opinions expressed by a minority of the Yes side about No voters. I find it strange that people who are so optimistic about the future of our country can have such a low opinion of so many of the people who would live in an independent Scotland. Unless there is a huge turnaround or the polls have been wrong to a degree never seen before a Yes victory is going to be narrow, with near 50% of voters voting No. Are they all selfish, stupid, bigoted? Why do people want independence to live in a country with so many awful people? You are right of course that you can't contain this tendency to only the Yes campaign. Misanthropy and contempt for voters is something that youseeacroS modern politics. I remember reading John O'Farrell's account of his life as a Labour activist, Things Can Only Get Better, and he says that to win support for nuclear disarmament in the 1980s Labour should have said that they'd buy everyone a VHS video recorder if Trident was scrapped - stupid voters don't understand the need for world peace? Buy them a shiny shiny! Maybe I'm naive but I thought that the Yes supporters would be less likely to fall into that thinking. It's easy to make a positive case for independence without the sourness. One major factor in this, though, is the medium. Forums like this and Twitter drive this kind of attitude and any encounter I've had with the Yes campaign in person hasn't seen any of these traits.

I take the points you're making. It is my experience, though, that No voters are not willing to listen or debate reasonably. There's a whole lot of fingers in ears and shouting la la la with No voters. They just have no interest in investigating both sides of the debate.

I've had it levelled at me that I'm one sided and not willing to listen either. I've lost count of the amount of times I've asked No voters on here to tell me why we're Better Together, but had precisely nothing back.

And that gets frustrating. So whilst it is my own personal belief that a large section of No voters are selfish and not willing to listen, they've shown nothing to suggest otherwise to me. Asking reasonable questions and attempting debate doesn't work.

Now of course it would be idiotic to suggest all No voters are stupid and selfish. Just a hell of a lot of them.

As for sharing the country with them, what other choice do we have? I think they'd have a blast in an indy Scotland.

[Jamaldo]

The media would have you believe that there is little support for independence, however seeing a fair amount of Yes stickers and car window stickers around the city makes me fairly hopeful that we can win.

Actually pissed off with the negativity of certain Yes voters on here. It seems they believe in YouGov as religiously as the No voters do.

It is incredibly unlikely that No will get more than 60%. Do people really think from a 75% turnout or so, nearly 2 million are going to vote No?

I think it will be very close. Put it this way if a rule in the style of Montenegro's referendum had been installed for this I don't think we would win.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

I didn't say that one side does it more than another, I was talking about the low opinions expressed by a minority of the Yes side about No voters. I find it strange that people who are so optimistic about the future of our country can have such a low opinion of so many of the people who would live in an independent Scotland. Unless there is a huge turnaround or the polls have been wrong to a degree never seen before a Yes victory is going to be narrow, with near 50% of voters voting No. Are they all selfish, stupid, bigoted? Why do people want independence to live in a country with so many awful people? You are right of course that you can't contain this tendency to only the Yes campaign. Misanthropy and contempt for voters is something that youseeacroS modern politics. I remember reading John O'Farrell's account of his life as a Labour activist, Things Can Only Get Better, and he says that to win support for nuclear disarmament in the 1980s Labour should have said that they'd buy everyone a VHS video recorder if Trident was scrapped - stupid voters don't understand the need for world peace? Buy them a shiny shiny! Maybe I'm naive but I thought that the Yes supporters would be less likely to fall into that thinking. It's easy to make a positive case for independence without the sourness. One major factor in this, though, is the medium. Forums like this and Twitter drive this kind of attitude and any encounter I've had with the Yes campaign in person hasn't seen any of these traits.

Fair enough.

Aye, one of the first challenges will be creating something different when so many people seem to have such negativity and a lack of faith in their country. That's not to say all No voters are like this, but it will be a challenge.

Like any time where a society has had any kind of progression, all you can do is show people something better and wait for them to get on board. In a generation, if living in Scotland has all the expected benefits of any wealthy, peaceful Northern European country, there wouldn't be much of an appetite for the old way imo.

[Enigma]

I think Edinburgh City will be clear for the No side, maybe even touching 60-40.

The battleground is Glasgow and Lanarkshire. It's where the swing voters are and it's where the major population centres are. It's near impossible to see Yes winning if they don't have at least a 3 or 4 point lead in Glasgow City I'd think.

This. Edinburgh will return a fairly solid no. The Borders and D&G look like they'll vote fairly strongly for no too. Knowing a few people from Shetland I think it will be closer up there than some perhaps believe. I think the referendum will be won or lost in Greater Glasgow and it's where yes should have its main focus. A convincing win in Glasgow combined with a strong turn out in that city could be enough to win it IMO. Yes will need a good turn out in its heartlands though, a dominant Dundee and Angus win would be extremely helpful.

I think East Lothian will follow Edinburgh in being fairly solidly no too. The labour voters here seem fairly fickle, we're one of the specks of red in that 2011 map, and can see them breaking largely for no. A fair chunk of the rest of the county consists of places like Gifford, Gullane and North Berwick which will be as strongly no as anywhere.

[P45]

Today's Scottish Mail on Sunday has 6% separating Yes and No which is about 318,000 people.

The don't knows are at 14% and if you go with the assumption that 20% or the million people, who aren't currently registered, won't vote then it could easily go either way.

It's really important to get people out to vote and encourage other people to vote, especially if you want rid of the WM fascists.

[Mr Bairn]

This. Edinburgh will return a fairly solid no. The Borders and D&G look like they'll vote fairly strongly for no too. Knowing a few people from Shetland I think it will be closer up there than some perhaps believe. I think the referendum will be won or lost in Greater Glasgow and it's where yes should have its main focus. A convincing win in Glasgow combined with a strong turn out in that city could be enough to win it IMO. Yes will need a good turn out in its heartlands though, a dominant Dundee and Angus win would be extremely helpful.

I think East Lothian will follow Edinburgh in being fairly solidly no too. The labour voters here seem fairly fickle, we're one of the specks of red in that 2011 map, and can see them breaking largely for no. A fair chunk of the rest of the county consists of places like Gifford, Gullane and North Berwick which will be as strongly no as anywhere.

Yes isn't going to win "convincingly" in Glasgow without a 2011-esque last minute swing. They'll be lucky to maybe get 52-55%. Glasgow/North Lanarkshire still has masses of Labour-Daily Record-Unionist types.

If anything the areas where yes might see a bit of a key victory are Falkirk and West Lothian. Again they aren't going to get anywhere near 60%, but every vote counts.

What hurts Yes, imo, is that Dundee is their only real stronghold whereas No can count the Borders, Renfrewshire, Ayrshite, the North East, the Islands and perhaps Edinburgh as safer areas.

[H_B]

I predict there will be another 6 referendum predictions threads before September

[P45]

Yes isn't going to win "convincingly" in Glasgow without a 2011-esque last minute swing. They'll be lucky to maybe get 52-55%. Glasgow/North Lanarkshire still has masses of Labour-Daily Record-Unionist types.

If anything the areas where yes might see a bit of a key victory are Falkirk and West Lothian. Again they aren't going to get anywhere near 60%, but every vote counts.

What hurts Yes, imo, is that Dundee is their only real stronghold whereas No can count the Borders, Renfrewshire, Ayrshite, the North East, the Islands and perhaps Edinburgh as safer areas.

Agreed. I would say the North East is where Yes will get the biggest majority.

The WoS area is a Labour stronghold. Some of the candidates they put up are incompetent bell ends that are just in it for the money yet they still win by a large majority.

What will win it for Yes is a change in the Labour voters opinions in the likes of Inverclyde.

[Ando]

Turnout = 79%

No = 48%

Yes = 52%

Highest yes % = Dundee City and Angus.

Highest no % = Scottish Borders and South Ayrshire.

[H_B]

Point taken about the shitebag patter. It always delights me when Unionists, be them politicians with a public audience or wee seethers online, resort to pathetic insults like "seperatists". Ultimately that kind of rubbish will only make their argument, or lack there of, seem less appealing.

But separatist, or secessionist is correct. It's not an insult, just a factual description.

What's better? Independencers?

[renton]

But separatist, or secessionist is correct. It's not an insult, just a factual description.

What's better? Independencers?

The South shall rise again!

Words do carry a meaning beyond the pure descriptive sense. It's easy to imbue certain emotional and historical connotations to them, so it becomes hard to describe something in neutral terms.

[Baxter Parp]

But separatist, or secessionist is correct. It's not an insult, just a factual description.

What's better? Independencers?

Independents.

[renton]

Yes isn't going to win "convincingly" in Glasgow without a 2011-esque last minute swing. They'll be lucky to maybe get 52-55%. Glasgow/North Lanarkshire still has masses of Labour-Daily Record-Unionist types.

If anything the areas where yes might see a bit of a key victory are Falkirk and West Lothian. Again they aren't going to get anywhere near 60%, but every vote counts.

What hurts Yes, imo, is that Dundee is their only real stronghold whereas No can count the Borders, Renfrewshire, Ayrshite, the North East, the Islands and perhaps Edinburgh as safer areas.

Coming out of glasgow with a seven to ten point lead (55 to 45) would be convincing.

certainly No can count on the South and South West of Scotland, I remain unconvinced that Edinburgh would be a solid No - it does have large concentrations of No leaning demographics, but I can see it being narrow one way or the other. I think Fife will probably vote Yes at this point, as will central (although falkirk is surely a stick on No vote) Angus and Dundee for yes.