So just the 25-39 year olds then

[H_B]

Polling shows Yes won just one age group sub division. 25 to 39 year olds.

This being the case, how does that affect the post match excuse making?

Is it now a case of waiting longer as 40 year olds said No Thanks?

And wont that mean that even if you wait say 30 years.. the under 25s who also slapped down secession will be... in the 40-50+ age group which also mauled Yes.

I don't see where Yes go from here. The vote breakdown gives them nowhere to turn to.

Crushed by the youngsters and rejected by the over 40s.

Still there's the football message board demographic to work with. That should help

[MarkoRaj]

Excluding over 65s gives yes 51% in the yougov poll.

[forever_blue]

Excluding over 65s gives yes 51% in the yougov poll.

no according to yougov

[H_B]

Excluding over 65s gives yes 51% in the yougov poll.

Except the poll overstated the Yes vote. And understated the No vote.

[MarkoRaj]

Except the poll overstated the Yes vote. And understated the No vote.

Except you'd have no way of knowing which age group (s) were overstated.

Also if the poll has the wrong final totals it would seem strange to laud its results in terms of demographics

[H_B]

Excluding over 65s gives yes 51% in the yougov poll.

In fact can you break this down as a claim anyway?

I don't see that in the figures.

[H_B]

Unless i am reading it wrong... looks like :-

283 16-24 year olds. No wins by 51/49 %.

687 25-39 year olds. Yes wins by 55/45.

1265 40-59 year olds. No wins by 53/47 %.

377 60-64 year olds. No wins by 55/45 %.

Unless my arithmetic fails me that doesn't lead to 51% Yes!

[renton]

Stuck this in the other poll thread:

The aschroft poll broke the age groups down differently, having six age groups vs the four in YouGov, which makes it harder to compare the two. It's also a wee bit difficult to cross reference the pre and post voting intention given the lack of response factor in YouGov.

Looking at the way the age groups break down, Ashcroft shows a small lead in yes for 45-54 and a huge No lead in 55-65. YouGov's 41-59 straddles both of those, so it's not inconsistent that it gives the overall backing to No in that age group, as the small ashcroft yes lead in 45-54 is more than balanced out by the No lead in 55-65.

Same goes for the bottom two age groups. The 18-25 group showed a No lead in ashcroft (all those Labour activist students!) with 16-17s (a small subsample as well) showed a massive lead for Yes. Again, it's not inconsistent with YouGov when they combine those two age groups that there is a slim No lead.

I don't think either poll is saying anything radically different. There is no doubt that Yes was in contention across all age groups up to the baby boomer mob, at which point they got absolutely creamed. If you break the age groups down differenty the position looks more positive for yes than not, but it's pretty much the same picture - what opened up the big gap was reluctance amongst older people, middle class homeowners and folk reisdent in scotland from other parts of the UK.

[renton]

Unless i am reading it wrong... looks like :-

283 16-24 year olds. No wins by 51/49 %.

687 25-39 year olds. Yes wins by 55/45.

1265 40-59 year olds. No wins by 53/47 %.

377 60-64 year olds. No wins by 55/45 %.

Unless my arithmetic fails me that doesn't lead to 51% Yes!

On the weighted sample it's 49% Yes, 50% if you exclude the 60-64and 65+ groups.

edited to add: 65+ group exclusion.

[H_B]

On the weighted sample it's 49% Yes, 50% if you exclude the 60-64s.

And why are we excluding the 60-64s?

He made the claim, incorrectly , about over 65s.

[renton]

And why are we excluding the 60-64s?

He made the claim, incorrectly , about over 65s.

'We' aren't doing anything. I did that because I decided to look a tthe poll sample excluding the baby boomers, anyone likely to be worried about pensions, generally - the gray generation. What point he was making may be bound up in the fact that the differences in age group partitioning between the polls.

Again, I don't think the polls said anything particularly divergent to each other.

[Confidemus]

H_B - hypocritical of people picking and choosing polls for months - picks and chooses a poll.

Brilliant!

[H_B]

'We' aren't doing anything. I did that because I decided to look a tthe poll sample excluding the baby boomers, anyone likely to be worried about pensions, generally - the gray generation. What point he was making may be bound up in the fact that the differences in age group partitioning between the polls.

Again, I don't think the polls said anything particularly divergent to each other.

I don't think he was making any point.

He just made an obvious error. It happens. Im sure he ll be along to correct himself at some point.

The You Gov poll was much bigger than Ashcroft wasn't it?

Plus it explodes the erroneous claim that Yes won the working population and just lost on the fogey vote.

That's demonstrably not the case here. Workers clearly rejected Yes as well as the pensioned demographic.

[Confidemus]

I don't think he was making any point.

He just made an obvious error. It happens. Im sure he ll be along to correct himself at some point.

The You Gov poll was much bigger than Ashcroft wasn't it?

Plus it explodes the erroneous claim that Yes won the working population and just lost on the fogey vote.

That's demonstrably not the case here. Workers clearly rejected Yes as well as the pensioned demographic.

Were you as welcoming of Yougov when they showed Yes at 51%?

Your continual clutching at straws and scramble for relevance shows that you're every bit as seething as me.

The main differences are, your mob won and I admit my seethe. You post laughing smileys after sentences to try and hide the utter rage eminating from you.

Look, I can do it too -

[H_B]

Were you as welcoming of Yougov when they showed Yes at 51%?

Your continual clutching at straws and scramble for relevance shows that you're every bit as seething as me.

The main differences are, your mob won and I admit my seethe. You post laughing smileys after sentences to try and hide the utter rage eminating from you.

Look, I can do it too -

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^_

Rattled that he cant blame old people now.

[Confidemus]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^_

Rattled that he cant blame old people now.

I think you'll find I can.

This changes nothing.

BTUKOK lied to pensioners. Pensioners voted No. That's what lost the referendum.

[Jimmy85]

You're old if you're over 39 tbf.

[renton]

I don't think he was making any point.

He just made an obvious error. It happens. Im sure he ll be along to correct himself at some point.

The You Gov poll was much bigger than Ashcroft wasn't it?

Plus it explodes the erroneous claim that Yes won the working population and just lost on the fogey vote.

That's demonstrably not the case here. Workers clearly rejected Yes as well as the pensioned demographic.

Ashcroft was the bigger poll - 2062 vs 1800 or something along those lines. I don't think it explodes anything. I think both polls come with the usual caveats when talking about errors on subsamples. For me, it shows that there was, if we are looking at it purely in terms of age breakdowns, that Yes was in contention amongst younger age groups, indeed YouGov showed a fragile 50% once you remove the fogeys (as you might say), Ashcroft with it's more delineated age groupings (which obviously increases error on those samples as a couple of them are really small) helps fill in some of those blanks. Student age showed a no lead, the kids said Yes and then up to 39 was yes as well. Alowing for the 40+ groups, then Yes, in both polls are still pretty much in contention.

The bad news for Yes is that they get creamed in the 60+ demographic, which is pretty much an unshiftable group as opinions go. Looking at the other cross breaks, the English/welsh/Ni vote - again, not a group likely to be open minded about Indy were hugely No. So it doesn't matte rthat Yes had a slim lead amongst the working age, Scots born groups, because the significant dmeogrpahics of old age folk and other-UK born were so massively against, that yes needed a commanding, not slim lead amongs the <60s Scots born.

[H_B]

Not sure under 25s and 40-64 year olds are pensioners m8.

[H_B]

Ashcroft was the bigger poll - 2062 vs 1800 or something along those lines. I don't think it explodes anything. I think both polls come with the usual caveats when talking about errors on subsamples. For me, it shows that there was, if we are looking at it purely in terms of age breakdowns, that Yes was in contention amongst younger age groups, indeed YouGov showed a fragile 50% once you remove the fogeys (as you might say), Ashcroft with it's more delineated age groupings (which obviously increases error on those samples as a couple of them are really small) helps fill in some of those blanks. Student age showed a no lead, the kids said Yes and then up to 39 was yes as well. Alowing for the 40+ groups, then Yes, in both polls are still pretty much in contention.

The bad news for Yes is that they get creamed in the 60+ demographic, which is pretty much an unshiftable group as opinions go. Looking at the other cross breaks, the English/welsh/Ni vote - again, not a group likely to be open minded about Indy were hugely No. So it doesn't matte rthat Yes had a slim lead amongst the working age, Scots born groups, because the significant dmeogrpahics of old age folk and other-UK born were so massively against, that yes needed a commanding, not slim lead amongs the <60s Scots born.

You Gov was over 3000.