renton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Not sure under 25s and 40-64 year olds are pensioners m8. Glad that's not what I was implying then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 You Gov was over 3000. fair enough, they ar eboth roughly around the +/- 2% error range. Though it doesn't really change the overall jist of what I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 You Gov was over 3000. Man, you're desperate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Glad that's not what I was implying then. I was not talking to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Not sure under 25s and 40-64 year olds are pensioners m8. Glad that's not what I was implying then. That was a bit desperate H_B... Picking and choosing polls whilst criticising others for picking and choosing polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 fair enough, they ar eboth roughly around the +/- 2% error range. Though it doesn't really change the overall jist of what I was saying. But the You Gov poll bad in excess of 50% more respondents. Is the Ashcroft poll even weighted ? Im struggling to read the data tables on my mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 That was a bit desperate H_B... Picking and choosing polls whilst criticising others for picking and choosing polls. Ah i see. Those famed double standards at play again. Haven't seen you leap to point out that blaming old people for the loss isn't true any more. Im sure you were going to do so now this larger poll contradicts the Ashcroft findings. What s your comments on it now being show working age voters and young people rejected Yes along with pensioners ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I don't think he was making any point. He just made an obvious error. It happens. Im sure he ll be along to correct himself at some point. The You Gov poll was much bigger than Ashcroft wasn't it? Plus it explodes the erroneous claim that Yes won the working population and just lost on the fogey vote. That's demonstrably not the case here. Workers clearly rejected Yes as well as the pensioned demographic. Hands up, I got that wrong. Still, if you exclude the over 60s as well its 50-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 But the You Gov poll bad in excess of 50% more respondents. Is the Ashcroft poll even weighted ? Im struggling to read the data tables on my mobile. It takes something like 10,000 respondents to really get the error down, both these polls will have same basic issues in terms of weighting and sub sample breakdowns. Without a proper exit poll, we'll always ahve a certain degree of uncertainty then, on how well Yes did in amongst younger age groups due to the closeness of those groups. Only in the 60+ groups where there is a huge deficit in favour of No, can we be relatively sure that they did come out for No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 It takes something like 10,000 respondents to really get the error down, both these polls will have same basic issues in terms of weighting and sub sample breakdowns. Without a proper exit poll, we'll always ahve a certain degree of uncertainty then, on how well Yes did in amongst younger age groups due to the closeness of those groups. Only in the 60+ groups where there is a huge deficit in favour of No, can we be relatively sure that they did come out for No. So was the Ashcroft poll weighted ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 So was the Ashcroft poll weighted ? It almost certianly was weighted somehow, wether or not it was an optimal weighting is another matter. The 16-17 sample was ridiculously small, meaning the 79% (or whatever it was) in favour of Yes is almost certainly not that good. Then again, all the pollsters stuggle to find enough 16-17 year olds, the youGov one might conceivably not have any. It will probably have some, but due to the decreased granularity in their age groupings, they don't need many. If they needed 300 16-24s for example, they could happily claim that a sample containing 295 21 year olds was fine, as it's in the distribution set. Both have the same problem of breaking down into sub samples, and both have the same errors. YG doesn't have enough repsondents to radically reduce the overall sample error over Ashcroft and in any case, the sub samples are all small enough to all have reasonably large errors (except YG's 41-59 group). I still think both tell a similar story, a close run thing to fragile lead for Yes amongst younger age groups that collapses amongst older working age-pensioner demographics. You cna also see in YG that the middle class were more No friendly and that other-UK borns broke massively for No (which would include a alrge number in both the student and older populations as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 The figures don't support your final paragraph. You Gov shows No winning convincingly in the working age population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 You Gov was over 3000. Was it? Sure it was circa 1800 + 800 postal voters. eta - If this the poll you're referring to, YouGov bases its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, together with those of 800 people who had already voted by post. http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/18/yougov-referendum-prediction/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Was it? Sure it was circa 1800 + 800 postal voters. eta - If this the poll you're referring to, YouGov bases its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, together with those of 800 people who had already voted by post. http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/18/yougov-referendum-prediction/ Nope... 3188. http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/19/scottish-independence-final-prediction/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 So in summary Scotland shat it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Nice to see the No camp moving on and pulling together for the good of Scotland, eh? Yes... sad to see us starting 55 campaigns.. railing against the 25-39 year olds in society... starting petitions questioning vote rigging... Oh.. wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Nope... 3188. http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/19/scottish-independence-final-prediction/ Cheers couldn't find that data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 The figures don't support your final paragraph. You Gov shows No winning convincingly in the working age population. Except it doesn't. Assuming working age is everything from 16-65, then on the weighted sample it shows a yes vote of 49%. that's not convincing in anyone's book. I'm also taking Ashcroft and YG together, so between the two, I don't think implying that yes were in contention to having a narrow lead amongst that populace before falling apart when it hit pension age is in any way wrong or controversial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 But the You Gov poll bad in excess of 50% more respondents. But... but... but if your maw had baws she'd be your da! What utter desperation from Hotel Bravo on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 It almost certianly was weighted somehow, wether or not it was an optimal weighting is another matter. The 16-17 sample was ridiculously small, meaning the 79% (or whatever it was) in favour of Yes is almost certainly not that good. Then again, all the pollsters stuggle to find enough 16-17 year olds, the youGov one might conceivably not have any. It will probably have some, but due to the decreased granularity in their age groupings, they don't need many. If they needed 300 16-24s for example, they could happily claim that a sample containing 295 21 year olds was fine, as it's in the distribution set. Both have the same problem of breaking down into sub samples, and both have the same errors. YG doesn't have enough repsondents to radically reduce the overall sample error over Ashcroft and in any case, the sub samples are all small enough to all have reasonably large errors (except YG's 41-59 group). I still think both tell a similar story, a close run thing to fragile lead for Yes amongst younger age groups that collapses amongst older working age-pensioner demographics. You cna also see in YG that the middle class were more No friendly and that other-UK borns broke massively for No (which would include a alrge number in both the student and older populations as well) Mmm... Just looking at the Ashcroft data again. Of 2047 entries... 488 were by over 65s. Now isn't it true that over 65s make up only 17% of the population. That's 23% of the whole poll ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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