Confidemus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Mmm... Just looking at the Ashcroft data again. Of 2047 entries... 488 were by over 65s. Now isn't it true that over 65s make up only 17% of the population. That's 23% of the whole poll ! You couldn't be more clutching at straws if you were a scarecrow having a w**k! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 You couldn't be more clutching at straws if you were a scarecrow having a w**k!You are absolutely gutted your pensioners line has been taken away from you arent you?You ve been raging all morning. Hurts that the workers told Yes to GTF too eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Mmm... Just looking at the Ashcroft data again. Of 2047 entries... 488 were by over 65s. Now isn't it true that over 65s make up only 17% of the population. That's 23% of the whole poll ! if there's been weighting done it doesn't show up in those tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 if there's been weighting done it doesn't show up in those tables. Fair enough. Enough holes in the Ashcroft data to drive a bus through. No real surprise its turned out to be completely unreliable in terms of determining where Yes lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 I agree incidentally that it depends where you draw your line.. but I'd bet my house on 40+ year olds having comprehensively rejected Yes. Which is a bit of a blow really for the new campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Fair enough. Enough holes in the Ashcroft data to drive a bus through. No real surprise its turned out to be completely unreliable in terms of determining where Yes lost. Again, I don't think it does, I think both tell the exact same story, namely Yes not doing well enough to change enough minds in target demogrpahics to offset the pensioner and other-UK vote, both of which were dead cert to be massive nos. Whether you think that yes had a fragile lead, or was slightly behind is up to you (again, allowing for errors) - Ashcroft showed what is probalby an optimistic viewpoint for Yes but even with whatever weighting issues it has, it tells basically the same story. Realisitically you can make the case for Yes being about 50% or so in the polls before you start hitting the baby boomers. Realistically it had to be a good 60% up in the <60 generation. Now, I got that from the Ashcroft data and the YG data simply back it up. That's the big picture. That's the ten point difference when the counting was finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 You are absolutely gutted your pensioners line has been taken away from you arent you? You ve been raging all morning. Hurts that the workers told Yes to GTF too eh? I've been raging since Friday, fella. Your scrambling today has done nothing to increase or decrease that, I suppose it has added an element of amusement as you hypocritically pick and choose polls, dependent on what they're telling you. I'm still more than confident that: a) Pensioners were lied to and their No vote won the campaign b) Working age adults voted Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I am a sad little w****r that has no life outside this forum. The number of posts I've made on here is testament to that. I'm not really that interested in politics or in the future of Scotland but taking part in this discussion allows me to insult people in a way that I'd never have the bottle to in real life. I can also say to my mum " yes I have real friends, you should see how many people I speak to in a day". I wish I had a girlfriend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I am a sad little w****r that has no life outside this forum. The number of posts I've made on here is testament to that. I'm not really that interested in politics or in the future of Scotland but taking part in this discussion allows me to insult people in a way that I'd never have the bottle to in real life. I can also say to my mum " yes I have real friends, you should see how many people I speak to in a day". I wish I had a girlfriend. Half_Brick in a nutshell, right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Ooft.. That's some really scandalously poor chat there. Probably the worst effort since the demise of chuckles. Its no wonder you are such a universally derided poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Ooft.. That's some really scandalously poor chat there. Probably the worst effort since the demise of chuckles. Its no wonder you are such a universally derided poster. You are SEETHING! This is quite, quite delicious. If Yes won, I can safely say I would be cockahoop. You are so angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpoonTon Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Mmm... Just looking at the Ashcroft data again. Of 2047 entries... 488 were by over 65s. Now isn't it true that over 65s make up only 17% of the population. That's 23% of the whole poll ! Population =/= electorate. 23% is probably about right for over 65s. I think it's fair to conclude, from polls taken before and after, that there is a general tipping point somewhere between 50 and 60. Those in the younger end would narrowly back independence, finding the strongest support somewhere in the middle of that age range. While those in the older end strongly back the union, especially the over 65s who back it by a large majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Population =/= electorate. 23% is probably about right for over 65s. I think it's fair to conclude, from polls taken before and after, that there is a general tipping point somewhere between 50 and 60. Those in the younger end would narrowly back independence, finding the strongest support somewhere in the middle of that age range. While those in the older end strongly back the union, especially the over 65s who back it by a large majority. I think its earlier than that. I'd back 40-49 to be a win for No too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 I think its earlier than that. I'd back 40-49 to be a win for No too. You could. But you'd be wrong to. But that hasn't stopped you before, so wire in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 You could. But you'd be wrong to. But that hasn't stopped you before, so wire in. Well, i think after your hideous pre referendum predictions you d be best to leave that up to me. Im not sure you could possibly have been more humiliated unless you were Tommy Sheridan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Well, i think after your hideous pre referendum predictions you d be best to leave that up to me. Im not sure you could possibly have been more humiliated unless you were Tommy Sheridan Yep, I got it wrong and freely admit to it. I also have been open in accepting the well deserved pelters that came my way. ^^^ humility Try it sometime, Anthony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Yep, I got it wrong and freely admit to it. I also have been open in accepting the well deserved pelters that came my way. ^^^ humility Try it sometime, Anthony. Tick tock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Tick tock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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