Hollyrood 2016

[~~~]

SNP win Oban by-election

http://www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/oban-south-and-isles-election-22-may-2014

[Bully Wee Villa]

Following on from the Westminster 2015 thread, thought Hollyrood should get one of its own.

Following Panelbase poll, composition of Hollyrood 2016 as folows:

1412262765731.jpg

SNP down, but gains for Green would probably result in a coalition between the two. Ruth Davidson's fanciful SNP/Tory coalition can remain a fantasy.

Is the guy in black the referee?

[lichtgilphead]

SNP win Oban by-election

http://www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/oban-south-and-isles-election-22-may-2014

Rico - your link is to the previous by-election where Neil Macintyre (Labour) won. It's his death that caused today's by-election.

Do you have a link to tonights result?

Edited to add - it's a councillor from Oban North that died - John MacGregor (Ind) - different seat entirely!

[~~~]

Rico - your link is to the previous by-election where Neil Macintyre (Labour) won. It's his death that caused today's by-election.

Do you have a link to tonights result?

Oops

http://www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/news/2014/oct/oban-north-and-lorn-election-results?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ArgyllAndButeCouncilNewsFeed+%28Argyll+and+Bute+Council+News+Feed%29

[lichtgilphead]

Oops

http://www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/news/2014/oct/oban-north-and-lorn-election-results?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ArgyllAndButeCouncilNewsFeed+%28Argyll+and+Bute+Council+News+Feed%29

Cheers

[~~~]

Vote Katy Clark for deputy.

Or else

[~~~]

Swing

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

FORTY SHREE

[Elixir]

Swing

ImageUploadedByPie & Bovril1418342033.537993.jpg

I just posted this on another thread.

Outrageous swing.

[Elixir]

Scottish Holyrood/Constituencies Poll (YouGov):

SNP - 50% (+4)

LAB - 28% (-)

CON - 14% (+2)

LDEM - 3% (-2)

UKIP - 3% (-1)

GRN - 2% (-3)

Scottish Holyrood/Regional Poll (YouGov):

SNP - 42% (+4)

LAB - 26% (-)

CON - 14% (+2)

GRN - 7% (-3)

UKIP - 4% (-2)

LDEM - 3% (-1)

[Mr Bairn]

Wonder if we'll see an SNP-Green pact where the SNP don't stand on the list. Could possibly be seen as cheating though since the list system is designed to handicap parties that won a lot of constituencies.

[Gordon EF]

Wonder if we'll see an SNP-Green pact where the SNP don't stand on the list. Could possibly be seen as cheating though since the list system is designed to handicap parties that won a lot of constituencies.

I seriously doubt that will happen. It's an interesting idea though.

Some kind of SNP/Green pact obviously makes sense but does pose difficulties. Realistically, aside from the Greens standing aside in constituencies where their vote might hand Labour a win over the SNP, what is there to do? And really, what's in it for the Greens, apart from making their place in a coalition government more likely.

As things stand, I think the SNP and Green leadership will be confident enough that the SNP will either win a majority and, if they don't, the Greens will have enough MSPs to form a majority coalition. Of course we're a long way off and a lot can change.

[Mr Bairn]

I seriously doubt that will happen. It's an interesting idea though.

Some kind of SNP/Green pact obviously makes sense but does pose difficulties. Realistically, aside from the Greens standing aside in constituencies where their vote might hand Labour a win over the SNP, what is there to do? And really, what's in it for the Greens, apart from making their place in a coalition government more likely.

As things stand, I think the SNP and Green leadership will be confident enough that the SNP will either win a majority and, if they don't, the Greens will have enough MSPs to form a majority coalition. Of course we're a long way off and a lot can change.

It's to do with how the electoral system works

The Greens don't run in constituencies, allow the SNP to win maybe 50/72 seats (a very conservative estimate, but we're just talking for arguments sake here)

Then the SNP don't bother running on the list and allow the Greens to win say 50% of the list seats.

The key distinction is that the Greens would probably top the vote on the list if the SNP weren't standing, but wouldn't be subject to the divisor that the AMS system has. Your list vote gets divided by the number of constituencies won, so instead of getting divided by a lot for the SNP it gets divided by one for the Greens.

It would likely be seen as cheating though.

[Gordon EF]

It's to do with how the electoral system works

The Greens don't run in constituencies, allow the SNP to win maybe 50/72 seats (a very conservative estimate, but we're just talking for arguments sake here)

Then the SNP don't bother running on the list and allow the Greens to win say 50% of the list seats.

The key distinction is that the Greens would probably top the vote on the list if the SNP weren't standing, but wouldn't be subject to the divisor that the AMS system has. Your list vote gets divided by the number of constituencies won, so instead of getting divided by a lot for the SNP it gets divided by one for the Greens.

It would likely be seen as cheating though.

Yeah, i get that. like you say though, it will come across as a bit of a fix. There are still list SNP MSPs as well who presumably wouldn't be happy to be sacrificed like that. And it just seems weird for the largest party not to enter the lists at all.

I think it's something political geeks will think about and I'm sure party leaders will consider it but ultimately I think there's very little chance of anything on that scale happening.

I think, unofficially, there will be a push among SNP and Green party members to get as many people as possible to vote SNP/Green.

[invergowrie arab]

I think people seriously overestimate the common ground between the greens and the snp.

[~~~]

I think people seriously overestimate the common ground between the greens and the snp.

Same, also the Greens don't see independence as the main achievement for the party.

I know a few Greens within England and Wales party wasn't happy with Scottish Greens backing independence as they want to see less borders etc...

[~~~]

Also a lot of the new SNP members seem baffled why the Greens haven't entered into this manufactured "yes alliance"

Some of the seethe towards the Greens is hilarious as they believe everyone who backed independence should be voting SNP

[YassinMoutaouakil]

If people support independence, then it only makes sense to vote for the SNP. It's not as if the Scottish Greens are ever going to be relevant within the UK.

Independence isn't the main issue for everyone who voted Yes though.

[YassinMoutaouakil]

Perhaps not. But it's an issue all the same and the only way to remove that obstacle is by backing the strongest horse.

Voting Scottish Greens in 2015 on the chance that they may gain a seat or 2 is pointless. They'll have zero influence at Westminster.

I agree with the SNP on independence. I don't agree with them on corporate tax being lowered, college places being cut, (alleged) NHS cutbacks and cosying up to homophobes.

[renton]

Perhaps not. But it's an issue all the same and the only way to remove that obstacle is by backing the strongest horse.

Voting Scottish Greens in 2015 on the chance that they may gain a seat or 2 is pointless. They'll have zero influence at Westminster.

That's not a long way from Labour's cry of 'you need us to stop the tories' though, is it. if the referendum taught me anything, it's that real progress cannot be made while people vote for 'least worst' scenarios and hoping that their views align with the party platform. If you agree with the Greens more than the SNP, vote for them and damn the consequences. The Greens might not make a difference this time out, but a good 2nd or whatever in one seat this time can be converted into a couple of seats next time. It's how parties grow - it's how the SNP grew.