Ira Gaines Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Anything less than 59 will be failure or a fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 2, 2015 Author Share Posted May 2, 2015 Bumping this thread 43 is my new prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Heliums Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Bumping this thread 43 is my new prediction Care to explain why? Not that that's a bad result: anything over 40 seats for the SNP can't really be whitewashed by Labour as a better result than they expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 I can't believe the polls and with increasing focus on tactical voting think there will be a few surprises. Yougov also have a good few seats too close to can in their nowcast. I'll go snp 35 Labour 18 lib dem 3 Tory 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 If Labour are really focusing on just 12 seats and Mundell's seat is a goner, 45 is the minimum for the SNP barring unexpected circumstances over the next four days. It all depends on the extent of pro-Union tactical voting by Tories, because swings to the SNP won't be uniform and will be larger where the Yes vote was strongest in the urban central belt. May wind up looking foolish in the aftermath but I'll go for SNP 52, Lab 5, Lib 1, Tory 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Anything in the 30's will be great and disappointing at the same time, I'll go low 40's with the hankies ready for anything over 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 3, 2015 Author Share Posted May 3, 2015 Care to explain why? Not that that's a bad result: anything over 40 seats for the SNP can't really be whitewashed by Labour as a better result than they expected. Bookies seldom get things wrong but I expect a swing back. I have looked at each seat and 43 of them are 1/3 on or better for the SNP. Hence my prediction. I will give another one on Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 I'm still shitting myself. Until the results are announced I still expect something to go horribly wrong. I want to believe I just can't bring myself to do it. Does anyone have a link to the polls for Scotland from 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Last Polls: Lab/SNP/LibDem/Con Scotsman YouGov 05/05/2010 37 21 22 17 Politics Home YouGov 05/05/2010 37 25 22 14 Scotland on Sunday YouGov 30/04/2010 37 20 22 17 http://www.scotlandvotes.com/westminster/opinion-polls Result: Lab 42 SNP 20 LibDem 19 Con 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Everyone's back to shiting themselves again I see. Last time the 'vote SNP get tory' line worked, this time I don't think it will. Do people genuinely think that the SNP will poll anything less than 45%? Bearing in mind that most polls have them either just over or under 50% that seems very unlikely. Even a 5 point bounce for them barely gets them to 30%, possibly less going by the poll of polls. Stay calm - the day is almost here, I can't see many shifters now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HomelandsOur Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 53 SNP 5 Lab 1 Lib 0 Con Tactical voting will save Murphy and will probably unfortunately also work in Edin South. Glasgow NE will likely stay labour too, so I don't see it impossible that Labour could win another two seats in places such as Hamilton and Fife. The liberal seat is obviously Orkney&Shetland. That is a best case result for us. I am having nightmares about <40 seats and think it is possible if tactical voting works and labour hold up in the central belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Everyone's back to shiting themselves again I see. Last time the 'vote SNP get tory' line worked, this time I don't think it will. Do people genuinely think that the SNP will poll anything less than 45%? Bearing in mind that most polls have them either just over or under 50% that seems very unlikely. Even a 5 point bounce for them barely gets them to 30%, possibly less going by the poll of polls. Stay calm - the day is almost here, I can't see many shifters now. Good man. This reminds me of all the shite-the-beds who were convinced the SFA were going to let Sevco into the old First Division. I continually argued in BRALT that it wasn't going to happen. Same here. John Lambies Doos is the sort of guy who goes along to every game telling all and sundry that his team will lose. Sadly others on here are following suit. We will get 49+ seats. Live with it. Embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Everyone's back to shiting themselves again I see. Last time the 'vote SNP get tory' line worked, this time I don't think it will. Do people genuinely think that the SNP will poll anything less than 45%? Bearing in mind that most polls have them either just over or under 50% that seems very unlikely. Even a 5 point bounce for them barely gets them to 30%, possibly less going by the poll of polls. Stay calm - the day is almost here, I can't see many shifters now. Being both an Aberdeen and Scotland fan, as well as a Yes voter I reserve the right to shite myself until the final whistle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Being both an Aberdeen and Scotland fan, as well as a Yes voter I reserve the right to shite myself until the final whistle Change Aberdeen to Arbroath and Then well Aye What he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Change Aberdeen to Arbroath and Then well Aye What he said And change To Ayr for me. We regularly throw away two goal leads late in the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 I still reckon it'll end up being 45 seats. Which is, of course, a resounding success, but will be portrayed by Labour as a sign of the collapse of the SNP vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuzzyAffro Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 I think it'll be 55 seats. Ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jie Bie Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Last Polls: Lab/SNP/LibDem/Con Scotsman YouGov 05/05/2010 37 21 22 17 Politics Home YouGov 05/05/2010 37 25 22 14 Scotland on Sunday YouGov 30/04/2010 37 20 22 17 http://www.scotlandvotes.com/westminster/opinion-polls Result: Lab 42 SNP 20 LibDem 19 Con 17 So in 2010 the Scottish labour vote was 5 points higher than the final three polls predicted? Not what I would call reassuring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Quite an interesting trawl through this thread. I know we all made ridiculous predictions, but I reserve the right to point and laugh at others. I fully deserve to be pointed and laughed at for that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TapothehullDee Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Tory, UKIP coalition. Labour, SNP nowhere near Downing Street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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