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Realistic number of SNP MPs after 2015 General Election.


John Lambies Doos

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So in 2010 the Scottish labour vote was 5 points higher than the final three polls predicted?

Not what I would call reassuring!

Difference is Labour were the party with the momentum in 2010 going into the last few days. Initially a few months before that the SNP and Labour were both in the low 30s, but as the campaign proceeded the SNP drifted down while Labour gradually rose. This election is following a trajectory more like Holyrood in 2011.

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Updated prediction:

SNP: 49

Lab: 9

Lib: 1

Tory: 0

Places like most of Edinburgh and East Ren/Ayrshire will not go completely yellow. I also expect the two hamilton seats and Glasgow NE to stay labour.

Would argue about Ayrshire. All four have a fantastic chance of being SNP

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Only a few days away now

This could be groundbreaking stuff here

Can't wait, away to park myself in a pub with the news on on Friday morning, have a few pints waiting on my mate finishing his exam and just soak in the seethe

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They do, but inland it may be similar to East ren. Let's not forget Ayr itself voted Tory in 2011.

Sorry didn't realise you meant East Ayrshire specifically. If Kilmarnock and Loudoun doesn't go SNP we can all pack up and go home.

What you have to remember about Ayr is although it is Tory at Holyrood, that constituency consists of Ayr, Prestwick and Troon.

Ayr at Westminster includes carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. Prestwick, Troon and even a part of Ayr itself is in Central Ayrshire.

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Only a few days away now

This could be groundbreaking stuff here

Can't wait, away to park myself in a pub with the news on on Friday morning, have a few pints waiting on my mate finishing his exam and just soak in the seethe

Daily Mail and Telegraph at the ready of course

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This thread is missing some people. Some great comments in the first few pages.

What like these. Posts number 2 and 3 on the thread

10-15.

That's the absolute ceiling, I'm afraid.

Correct.

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Being both an Aberdeen and Scotland fan, as well as a Yes voter I reserve the right to shite myself until the final whistle

Change Aberdeen to Arbroath and

Then well

Aye

What he said

And change To Ayr for me. We regularly throw away two goal leads late in the day

Lads, lads, lads. I'm a Killie fan. St Mirren pumped us 4 - 1.

Just let that sink in. The Maureens put 4 goals passed us. And even I think we'll get 50+ seats.

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Lads, lads, lads. I'm a Killie fan. St Mirren pumped us 4 - 1.

Just let that sink in. The Maureens put 4 goals passed us. And even I think we'll get 50+ seats.

Well we did spectacularly pull a couple of wins out of the bag to stay up.

Still prepared for the worst though :unsure2:

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