invergowrie arab Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 People have made FOISA requests to highland council and they say they donnt have the information for it to be broken down to ward level so not sure where the Skye and Inverness figures come from unless it was sampling on.the night. Others like Glasgow and north Ayrshire give full breakdowns on their website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Inverness was definitely 60+ percent in favour of Yes, I'm sure. I saw several tweets suggesting 61% yes but that seems a bit unlikely given Highland was 53% no? Inverness is over a quarter of the Highlands' population too. As well as the Isle of Skye, Lochaber apparently voted yes too which could mean Charles Kennedy ends up being turfed out after all. This does beg the question about where the major no-voting areas were in the Highlands, though? People have made FOISA requests to highland council and they say they donnt have the information for it to be broken down to ward level so not sure where the Skye and Inverness figures come from unless it was sampling on.the night. Others like Glasgow and north Ayrshire give full breakdowns on their website. That's where the information I'm seeing on Twitter from September/October seems to be coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I saw several tweets suggesting 61% yes but that seems a bit unlikely given Highland was 53% no? Inverness is over a quarter of the Highlands' population too. As well as the Isle of Skye, Lochaber apparently voted yes too which could mean Charles Kennedy ends up being turfed out after all. This does beg the question about where the major no-voting areas were in the Highlands, though? I also saw Tain as yes. You would think if Inverness and Skye were yes fort William would have had to have been 90% no to return a no vote for highland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Since the first region was rather short we'll also look at one more tonight, Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, should be up in the next 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest Saints Fan Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Inverness must have had one of the most active Yes branches going. It's still open right now in the middle of town and still busy. I can believe the figure. You would think Danny Alexander is a stick on to lose his seat but the SNP candidate is just as hated up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm confused. Which one of your zones are Dundee and Angus in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I also saw Tain as yes. You would think if Inverness and Skye were yes fort William would have had to have been 90% no to return a no vote for highland. U r assuming there was no election rigging of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I also saw Tain as yes. You would think if Inverness and Skye were yes fort William would have had to have been 90% no to return a no vote for highland. I saw someone say Fort William voted yes too. Either way, it was close in the Highlands. Inverness must have had one of the most active Yes branches going. It's still open right now in the middle of town and still busy. I can believe the figure. You would think Danny Alexander is a stick on to lose his seat but the SNP candidate is just as hated up here. The SNP will win at a canter in Beaker's seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 U r assuming there was no election rigging of course Tbh all the white settlers spread throughout badenoch, lochaber, Sutherland and the great Glen probably = Inverness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 4. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Potential 3-way marginal here and bizarrely yet another seat where the Tories could find themselves lucky just by maintaining their 2010 levels and watching the Lib Dems reverse leapfrog them. The SNP should be more of a factor here, coming off a 16% starting level and a romping win in the equivalent Holyrood seat. Again the Lib Dems need to keep 80% of their vote to win the seat, and the SNP would need slightly under half of the Lib Dems votes to pinch it from 3rd place. In this case I like the look of the Nats because there's also a sizeable Labour base to gain votes from, SNP gain from Lib Dems 5. Aberdeen North UKPR have this as a "very safe" Labour seat with them getting double the SNP vote in 2010. Having said that I think the SNP can easily take the quarter of the Labour vote they need, throw in the fact there's a 19% Lib Dem base to pinch votes from and you have an SNP gain from Labour and it won't even be that close. 6. Aberdeen South Boy, this is a tough call. Labour got more than three times the SNP vote in 2010, and the Nats are coming from way back in fourth place, but there's a massive Lib Dem vote that's absolutely bound to collapse. This one could be one of the most marginal seats of the night, with a not insignificant Tory vote to factor in as well. Ultimately this is a seat that Labour will hang on to but it could come down to multiple recounts. Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire roundup Seats: Labour 1(-1), SNP 2 (+2), Lib Dems 0 (-1) Total seats: Tories 2(+1), Labour 2 (-1), SNP 2(+2), Lib Dems 0 (-2) What the papers will say: Nearly a 2011 esque SNP clean out, but Anne Begg holds on to keep a little red on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm confused. Which one of your zones are Dundee and Angus in? North East. Is my geography off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 North East. Is my geography off? I personally wouldn't say Dundee is NE but plenty of people do so it's reasonable I suppose. Where are the moray and Inverness east seats then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MONKMAN Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 North East. Is my geography off?Yes. You haven't changed the borders zone to Southern Scotland......With that exception, this is a top thread. Well done Mr Bairn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 4. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Potential 3-way marginal here and bizarrely yet another seat where the Tories could find themselves lucky just by maintaining their 2010 levels and watching the Lib Dems reverse leapfrog them. The SNP should be more of a factor here, coming off a 16% starting level and a romping win in the equivalent Holyrood seat. Again the Lib Dems need to keep 80% of their vote to win the seat, and the SNP would need slightly under half of the Lib Dems votes to pinch it from 3rd place. In this case I like the look of the Nats because there's also a sizeable Labour base to gain votes from, SNP gain from Lib Dems 5. Aberdeen North UKPR have this as a "very safe" Labour seat with them getting double the SNP vote in 2010. Having said that I think the SNP can easily take the quarter of the Labour vote they need, throw in the fact there's a 19% Lib Dem base to pinch votes from and you have an SNP gain from Labour and it won't even be that close. 6. Aberdeen South Boy, this is a tough call. Labour got more than three times the SNP vote in 2010, and the Nats are coming from way back in fourth place, but there's a massive Lib Dem vote that's absolutely bound to collapse. This one could be one of the most marginal seats of the night, with a not insignificant Tory vote to factor in as well. Ultimately this is a seat that Labour will hang on to but it could come down to multiple recounts. Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire roundup Seats: Labour 1(-1), SNP 2 (+2), Lib Dems 0 (-1) Total seats: Tories 2(+1), Labour 2 (-1), SNP 2(+2), Lib Dems 0 (-2) What the papers will say: Nearly a 2011 esque SNP clean out, but Anne Begg holds on to keep a little red on the board. Im liking these Mr Bairn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 I personally wouldn't say Dundee is NE but plenty of people do so it's reasonable I suppose. Where are the moray and Inverness east seats then? North East is the two Dundee seats, Angus, Moray, Gordon and Banff/Buchan North West is Argyll & Bute, the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland and then those 3 seats with really long names (Alexander's seat, Kennedy's seat and the Caithness seat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yes. You haven't changed the borders zone to Southern Scotland...... With that exception, this is a top thread. Well done Mr Bairn Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 East Central Scotland will be released tomorrow. This consists of Perth and North Perthshire as well as all 4 Fife seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 North East is the two Dundee seats, Angus, Moray, Gordon and Banff/Buchan North West is Argyll & Bute, the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland and then those 3 seats with really long names (Alexander's seat, Kennedy's seat and the Caithness seat) Aye that's slightly weird as you have cut off the Dundee and Angus seats from the moray and northern Aberdeenshire seats with the Aberdeen seats and the Inverness badenoch and strathspey seat is all on the east coast. However, that just nitpicking from me as I was trying to work it out in my head. Great thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The SNP will surely make gains In Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire & Kincardine given current polling but a lot of it does depend on how stubborn the Liberal vote is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The SNP will surely make gains In Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire & Kincardine given current polling but a lot of it does depend on how stubborn the Liberal vote is. I reckon it is soft. Nobody is a committed lib dem. Their vote will disappear like snow off a dyke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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