Bairn's Scotland2015 blog: Previews of every seat

[Gordon EF]

The 2011 holyrood election result vs the 2014 referendum result. Glasgow voted yes but voted labour predominantly . western isles, east Ayrshire constituencies voted SNP but voted no. That's not to say SNP won't gain votes but I don't think it will be particularly linked to the referendum result. People like the SNPs policies much more than they like the idea of independence.

The SNP vote in 2011 as almost exactly the same as the %age vote for independence.

Of course some people have voted SNP and then voted No or didn't vote SNP and then voted Yes so you can't simply transport Yes/No votes into SNP swings. But I think you will see a general trend of high Yes voting area swinging largest towards the SNP.

For example, I'd put good money on the biggest swings towards the SNP taking place in Labour held seats with higher than average Yes votes.

[lichtgilphead]

North East is the two Dundee seats, Angus, Moray, Gordon and Banff/Buchan

North West is Argyll & Bute, the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland and then those 3 seats with really long names (Alexander's seat, Kennedy's seat and the Caithness seat)

Good thread, but you're taking some serious liberties with geography

For instance, big bits of Argyll & Bute are south of some of the places in your "South" region.

Even if we ignore the outlying islands, it's nearly 350 miles from Southend (Campbeltown) to John O'Groats

As part of the old Strathclyde Region, should it not perhaps be in "Strathclyde" rather than "North-West"

[Mr Bairn]

Good thread, but you're taking some serious liberties with geography

For instance, big bits of Argyll & Bute are south of some of the places in your "South" region.

Even if we ignore the outlying islands, it's nearly 350 miles from Southend (Campbeltown) to John O'Groats

As part of the old Strathclyde Region, should it not perhaps be in "Strathclyde" rather than "North-West"

Possibly yes. But it's in the Highlands and Islands for election purposes and it was more about keeping the numbers evenish. Plus you certainly can't dispute that it's "West"

[Gordon EF]

4. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

Potential 3-way marginal here and bizarrely yet another seat where the Tories could find themselves lucky just by maintaining their 2010 levels and watching the Lib Dems reverse leapfrog them. The SNP should be more of a factor here, coming off a 16% starting level and a romping win in the equivalent Holyrood seat. Again the Lib Dems need to keep 80% of their vote to win the seat, and the SNP would need slightly under half of the Lib Dems votes to pinch it from 3rd place. In this case I like the look of the Nats because there's also a sizeable Labour base to gain votes from, SNP gain from Lib Dems

5. Aberdeen North

UKPR have this as a "very safe" Labour seat with them getting double the SNP vote in 2010. Having said that I think the SNP can easily take the quarter of the Labour vote they need, throw in the fact there's a 19% Lib Dem base to pinch votes from and you have an SNP gain from Labour and it won't even be that close.

6. Aberdeen South

Boy, this is a tough call. Labour got more than three times the SNP vote in 2010, and the Nats are coming from way back in fourth place, but there's a massive Lib Dem vote that's absolutely bound to collapse. This one could be one of the most marginal seats of the night, with a not insignificant Tory vote to factor in as well. Ultimately this is a seat that Labour will hang on to but it could come down to multiple recounts.

Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire roundup

Seats: Labour 1(-1), SNP 2 (+2), Lib Dems 0 (-1)

Total seats: Tories 2(+1), Labour 2 (-1), SNP 2(+2), Lib Dems 0 (-2)

What the papers will say: Nearly a 2011 esque SNP clean out, but Anne Begg holds on to keep a little red on the board.

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - I'd agree, i think the SNP will take this one. The SNP should definitely be able to nick 40% odd of the Lib Dem vote. Could be very, very tight between the SNP and the Tories though.

Aberdeen North - I'm not quite as confident as you that the SNP will stroll this one but I probably would make them favourites. 22% is a lot to make up but the big Lib Dem vote here (and probably a 'student' type Lib Dem vote) puts it well into play. If the SNP can take half the lib Dem vote, you wouldn't need too many labour voters to switch to the SNP for them to take it. I think this one will be close but I'd have to call it as a very narrow SNP win.

Aberdeen South - Yep could be interesting. Any seat with a very large Lib Dem vote is fair game. But yep, I think the SNP are starting from far too small a base to take this one. Labour hold.

[DC92]

4. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

Potential 3-way marginal here and bizarrely yet another seat where the Tories could find themselves lucky just by maintaining their 2010 levels and watching the Lib Dems reverse leapfrog them. The SNP should be more of a factor here, coming off a 16% starting level and a romping win in the equivalent Holyrood seat. Again the Lib Dems need to keep 80% of their vote to win the seat, and the SNP would need slightly under half of the Lib Dems votes to pinch it from 3rd place. In this case I like the look of the Nats because there's also a sizeable Labour base to gain votes from, SNP gain from Lib Dems

5. Aberdeen North

UKPR have this as a "very safe" Labour seat with them getting double the SNP vote in 2010. Having said that I think the SNP can easily take the quarter of the Labour vote they need, throw in the fact there's a 19% Lib Dem base to pinch votes from and you have an SNP gain from Labour and it won't even be that close.

6. Aberdeen South

Boy, this is a tough call. Labour got more than three times the SNP vote in 2010, and the Nats are coming from way back in fourth place, but there's a massive Lib Dem vote that's absolutely bound to collapse. This one could be one of the most marginal seats of the night, with a not insignificant Tory vote to factor in as well. Ultimately this is a seat that Labour will hang on to but it could come down to multiple recounts.

Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire roundup

Seats: Labour 1(-1), SNP 2 (+2), Lib Dems 0 (-1)

Total seats: Tories 2(+1), Labour 2 (-1), SNP 2(+2), Lib Dems 0 (-2)

What the papers will say: Nearly a 2011 esque SNP clean out, but Anne Begg holds on to keep a little red on the board.

Hard to disagree with these outcomes, although the pedant in me wants to point out that Banff and Buchan is entirely in Aberdeenshire while Gordon is partly in Aberdeenshire and partly in Aberdeen City.

[lichtgilphead]

Possibly yes. But it's in the Highlands and Islands for election purposes and it was more about keeping the numbers evenish. Plus you certainly can't dispute that it's "West"

I'm not disputing that most of Argyll is north of the highland line. I'm not disputing that it's west.

However, how can you describe somewhere that is only 12 miles from Ireland as being in the North-West of Scotland?

If you meant Highlands & Islands, why not describe it that way?

Anyway, and far more interestingly, have you seen the leaked list of seats that the Tories consider certainties or unwinnable? If the list is correct, I would suggest that every Scottish seat listed below has already been written off by them - none of these seats are Tory certainties

Argyll & Bute is on it, as are North-East Fife, Edinburgh South, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, Paisley & Renfrew North, Central Ayrshire, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Edinburgh West, East Lothian and Aberdeen South.

http://www.markpack.org.uk/129046/conservative-non-target-seats/

[Mr Bairn]

I'm not disputing that most of Argyll is north of the highland line. I'm not disputing that it's west.

However, how can you describe somewhere that is only 12 miles from Ireland as being in the North-West of Scotland?

If you meant Highlands & Islands, why not describe it that way?

Anyway, and far more interestingly, have you seen the leaked list of seats that the Tories consider certainties or unwinnable? If the list is correct, I would suggest that every Scottish seat listed below has already been written off by them - none of these seats are Tory certainties

Argyll & Bute is on it, as are North-East Fife, Edinburgh South, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, Paisley & Renfrew North, Central Ayrshire, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Edinburgh West, East Lothian and Aberdeen South.

http://www.markpack.org.uk/129046/conservative-non-target-seats/

Surprised about WAK, unless they think they're a certainty there for some reason.

I can imagine there will be heavy campaigning down in the Berwickshire seat, plus they'll need to at least do some groundwork to insure Mundell holds on. I heard a rumour they were heavily targeting Perth & North Perthshire, which to me seems completely bizarre.

Dumfries & Galloway isn't on the list, let's not rule them out there. I don't think they can catch Labour but might get lucky if the optimum percentage of the Labour vote collapses to the SNP. There are actually quite a few Tory seats where they're second to Labour or the Lib Dems and have around a third of the vote. If they're really lucky that same percentage might be enough to win the seats this time.

[Gordon EF]

I heard a rumour they were heavily targeting Perth & North Perthshire, which to me seems completely bizarre.

Lunacy if true. I'd put everything I owned on the SNP holding the 6 seats they already have.

[Sooky]

I heard a rumour they were heavily targeting Perth & North Perthshire, which to me seems completely bizarre.

Indeed they are. I was getting emails from IDS and Philip Hammond in January about a campaign day last month. By pure coincidence the emails were worded the exact same.

[lichtgilphead]

Surprised about WAK, unless they think they're a certainty there for some reason.

I can imagine there will be heavy campaigning down in the Berwickshire seat, plus they'll need to at least do some groundwork to insure Mundell holds on. I heard a rumour they were heavily targeting Perth & North Perthshire, which to me seems completely bizarre.

Dumfries & Galloway isn't on the list, let's not rule them out there. I don't think they can catch Labour but might get lucky if the optimum percentage of the Labour vote collapses to the SNP. There are actually quite a few Tory seats where they're second to Labour or the Lib Dems and have around a third of the vote. If they're really lucky that same percentage might be enough to win the seats this time.

Whilst agreeing with you that D&G might still go Tory, the leaked list is definitely not complete. Kirkcaldy & Cowden isn't on the list either, but the Tories are certain to have written it off.

If the leak is true, it's of more value for what is on it rather than what is missing.

[Sooky]

No idea why they'd be targeting Perth so hard when our vote there remained pretty much static when comparing 2005 to 2010.

Interesting to think that the Tories may well actually gain seats in Scotland despite being in government and being in such an unpopular government. Really highlights the utter collapse of the Lib Dems!

[Mr Bairn]

No idea why they'd be targeting Perth so hard when our vote there remained pretty much static when comparing 2005 to 2010.

Interesting to think that the Tories may well actually gain seats in Scotland despite being in government and being in such an unpopular government. Really highlights the utter collapse of the Lib Dems!

Is the government particularly unpopular with the people who voted for them in 2010, though? Obviously the Lib Dems are, but the people that voted Tory in 2010 more or less got exactly what they voted for. I expect their vote to hold up in Scotland, maybe even increase by a few points.

[Sooky]

Is the government particularly unpopular with the people who voted for them in 2010, though? Obviously the Lib Dems are, but the people that voted Tory in 2010 more or less got exactly what they voted for. I expect their vote to hold up in Scotland, maybe even increase by a few points.

No, that's true. The Tory vote will hold up to around 15-18% I'd imagine. I just find it interesting that they won't gain seats by actually getting any substantial increase in votes, but just by the huge fall that the Lib Dems will have in theirs. Not that I am complaining of course!

[Double Jack D]

Is the government particularly unpopular with the people who voted for them in 2010, though? Obviously the Lib Dems are, but the people that voted Tory in 2010 more or less got exactly what they voted for. I expect their vote to hold up in Scotland, maybe even increase by a few points.

Absolutely this.

I wouldn't vote Tory but you can't argue that they don't do what they say they're going to. Labour on the other hand appear to vary their argument depending on what part of the UK they're speaking to. The Scottish people have finally realised this after it was quite blatantly exposed during the referendum campaign.

[invergowrie arab]

I'm on Pete wisharts campaign committee in Perth & North Perthshire and can confirm that the Tories have it as their #1 target for Scotland. This appears to be based on how the county,as opposed to Perth city, voted in the referendum.

However, I don't know if this is still the case as they have plumped for serial election loser Alexander Stewart which we are all delighted about. They also promised to have an open primary for this seat but that was quietly dropped.

If I was a betting man I would put money on Pete increasing his majority. We have 2000 party members in the constituency for a start.

[Jim McLean's Ghost]

I think turn out is going to be a huge factor in this. 64% at the last general election and 85% at the Indy Ref. I think it is fair to say that everyone who was ever going to vote did so at the referendum so that should be regarded as the ceiling. I don't think turn out will hit 80% but I think it should get comfortably above 70% on the back of referendum.

I think new voters are going to play a huge part in this election and that is something to take note of particularly in Glasgow but also in other parts of the central belt where turnout was below 60%.

I don't think it will be a major factor in the 3 Southern seats where turn out is above 65%. However that Aberdeen North seat had a 58% turnout, if that hits over 65% then that is 3000 new voters in a majority of 8000 which is a pretty sizable chunk especially if they are expected to be highly partisan for the SNP.

[Quentin Taranbino]

Good thread. Keep it up Mr Bairn and ignore those moaning about your geography

[Mr Bairn]

Here we go with the East Central:

7. Perth & North Perthshire

Having done a bit of research on this seat I think it might buck the national trend a bit. It certainly won't be changing hands, but I don't think there will be a major swing to the SNP. Local farmers are said to be infuriated at Scottish government policy and the Tories are heavily electioneering here, so I think the SNP majority will stay the same, maybe even fall a little. I'll eat my hat if it's anything other than an SNP hold, though.

8. North East Fife

Sir Ming standing down makes this seat open season for the SNP. They need a 15% swing from the Lib Dems, which seems easy in a student constituency, but St Andrews is no normal university. Still, there's a decent Labour base for them to pinch votes from and the Tories aren't starting from a good enough base to challenge here. SNP gain and a remarkable win from 4th place.

9. Dunfermline and West Fife

The SNP won the Holyrood seat here in 2011, only to be turfed out in the resulting by-election. Bit of a No voting area this one, they'll leapfrog the Lib Dems into second place but I foresee a Labour hold here.

10. Glenrothes

The incumbent is standing down and the SNP hold the Holyrood seat here but they'd need a remarkable 21% swing to win this seat. I think Labour hold this on a much reduced majority.

11. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Kirkcaldy is said to have voted Yes. With Gordon Brown stepping down the SNP could throw a lot at this seat, but Cowdenbeath seems to be one of the areas where Labour is still doing okay. I think Labour hold this but once again the SNP could get within a few hundred votes.

Seats: Labour 3, SNP 2 (+1), Lib Dems 0 (-1)

Total seats: Labour 5 (-1), SNP 4 (+3), Tories 2 (+1), Lib Dems 0 (-3)

What the papers will say: Labour hold on to their 3 Fife seats despite massive swings to the SNP, Wishart holds on despite trend bucking swing, Lib Dem meltdown in St Andrews.

[vikingTON]

Care to explain why the fairly clear 20%+ swing in polls has been disregarded, in place of entirely specious claims about Labour 'doing well' in places like Cowdenbeath, unsupported by any credible polling evidence?

[CGR]

#Perthshire