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Polls and predictions


Granny Danger

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Unlike this fool, I don't think the Tories have a chance of a majority. I think they'll do better than expected though, maybe enough to scrape together a working majority coalition.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/318890-scots-pensioner-places-30000-bet-on-tory-election-majority/?ns_campaign=STVemail&ns_mchannel=dailynewsletter&ns_source=stvtoday300415

A pensioner with a spare £30k in his hip pocket doesn't point to him being a fool IMO.

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Labour not need an extra one as they're providing the speaker?

Bercow is nominally a Conservative. But it makes no odds because he stands as "Speaker" so can simply be removed from the total number of MPs.

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The Tories will be the biggest party, but will not form Government.

Which should simultaneously delight and dismay Jim Murphy.

My moron mate can't get it into his head, that the biggest party doesn't automatically form government. He's utterly brainwashed into thinking so, and would latch onto everything labour say.

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My moron mate can't get it into his head, that the biggest party doesn't automatically form government. He's utterly brainwashed into thinking so, and would latch onto everything labour say.

Is that not just the majority of the electorate.

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This came out about two hours ago:

Latest Ipsos-MORI poll (26 - 28 Apr):

CON - 35% (+2)

LAB - 30% (-5)

UKIP - 10% (-)

GRN - 8% (-)

LDEM - 8% (+1)

Is there a wee SNP rise in those figures?

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It's not in his hip pocket any more. It's in Mr Ladbrokes hip pocket.

What's he really gambling, £30k at 1 or 2% a year interest v 700% if his judgement's correct.

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My moron mate can't get it into his head, that the biggest party doesn't automatically form government. He's utterly brainwashed into thinking so, and would latch onto everything labour say.

It's down to very simple maths. There are 650 seats. Half of 650 is 325. 325 + 1 = majority.

If you can get to 326 by any means, bingo.

It's genuinely not that hard. Your mate's a zoomer.

:)

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This came out about two hours ago:

Latest Ipsos-MORI poll (26 - 28 Apr):

CON - 35% (+2)

LAB - 30% (-5)

UKIP - 10% (-)

GRN - 8% (-)

LDEM - 8% (+1)

In terms of seats that would suggest a fairly big lead for the Tories over Labour.

Obviously only one poll but supports the latest Ashcroft one.

Bit worrying tbh.

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It's down to very simple maths. There are 650 seats. Half of 650 is 325. 325 + 1 = majority.

If you can get to 326 by any means, bingo.

It's genuinely not that hard. Your mate's a zoomer.

:)

Technically it's Half of (650 - Sinn Fein seats) + 1

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The absolute ideal would be a Tory/UKIP majority with 59 SNP members at Westminster.

That would hasten the day of Independence.

Nothing else matters to me.

UKIP :lol:

They will be lucky to get 2 seats. Any Tory Gov't would be propped up by the Lib Dems and The DUP before UKIP.

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