Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

[paul-r-cfc]

David Coburn seems to have fallen for the obvious April fools

[NotThePars]

Effie Deans on Twitter saying that hating the Tories is as bad as using the n word or hating Pakistanis.

[invergowrie arab]

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/7049225/Kezia-Dugdale-badgered-the-SNP-for-a-job-in-a-bid-to-kick-off-her-politics-career.html

[Poet of the Macabre]

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/7049225/Kezia-Dugdale-badgered-the-SNP-for-a-job-in-a-bid-to-kick-off-her-politics-career.html

 

Oh dear.

 

Someone might mention the term "career politician" in the next few days.

[Mr Rational]

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/7049225/Kezia-Dugdale-badgered-the-SNP-for-a-job-in-a-bid-to-kick-off-her-politics-career.html

I told you all this for ages. I also told you South would stay labour and I'm telling you that Kez is in with a shout if she gets her act together.

National campaigns do trump all in the end, but I know what is going on in my backyard.

[renton]

I told you all this for ages. I also told you South would stay labour and I'm telling you that Kez is in with a shout if she gets her act together.

National campaigns do trump all in the end, but I know what is going on in my backyard.

 

So, what is it? An unremarkable SNP candidate, constituency demographics, or Kez' natural authority and clear minded political acumen coming through?

[Mr Rational]

No saying.

[Kyle]

TNS Scotland poll to March 22:

 

Constitency:

 

SNP 56% (-4)

Lab 19% (-2)

Con 15% (+2)

Lib Dem 6% (+2)

 

Regional list:

 

SNP 47% (-

Lab 21% (0)

Con 15% (+2)

Lib Dem 6% (+2)

Green 8% (+2)

[renton]

TNS Scotland poll to March 22:

 

Constitency:

 

SNP 56% (-4)

Lab 19% (-2)

Con 15% (+2)

Lib Dem 6% (+2)

 

Regional list:

 

SNP 47% (-

Lab 21% (0)

Con 15% (+2)

Lib Dem 6% (+2)

Green 8% (+2)

 

That's a bit of an ouch for the SNP. Was the last TNS quite a while ago, or an outlier in terms of high vote share?  Tories and Lib Dems both making +2 on both ballots is a bit weird.

 

edited to add: Looks like a reverison to the mean. Last TNS poll had the SNP going from 57 to 60 on the constituency, and 52 to 55 on the list, almost entirely at the expense of the Tories who were down 4 points on both ballots, and the LDs who were down 2 on the list. Greens were unchanged last time, might be a genuine bump for them.

[Kyle]

Judging by the rest of the polls, that one was a bit of an outlier - even these finding seem a little bit outwith what I'd expect - SNP look high on both the constituency and the list by a couple of %, the Tories look a little bit low on both. The rest looks about roughly right to me.

[renton]

That poll would give:

 

SNP: 72

Labour: 27

Tories: 16

Lib Dems: 6

Greens: 8.

[Mr Bairn]

That's a bit of an ouch for the SNP. Was the last TNS quite a while ago, or an outlier in terms of high vote share?  Tories and Lib Dems both making +2 on both ballots is a bit weird.

 

edited to add: Looks like a reverison to the mean. Last poll had the SNP going from 57 to 60 on the constituency, and 52 to 55 on the list, almost entirely at the expense of the Tories who were down 4 points on both ballots, and the LDs who were down 2 on the list. Greens were unchanged last time, might be a genuine bump for them.

 

 

Just natural statistical variation, last poll was in February

 

The interesting thing about this election is that I don't really expect too much of a Lib Dem fall. They were already pretty much at their base in 2011.

 

Only place they might drop votes is where they were incumbent from 2007-2011 and then lost, however some of their former MSPs may stand to try and make up for that fact.

[renton]

Just natural statistical variation, last poll was in February

 

The interesting thing about this election is that I don't really expect too much of a Lib Dem fall. They were already pretty much at their base in 2011.

 

Only place they might drop votes is where they were incumbent from 2007-2011 and then lost, however some of their former MSPs may stand to try and make up for that fact.

 

Yeah, I edited my post after looking back.

[Poet of the Macabre]

From Scotsman:

 

Speaking at a campaign event in Leith today, Ms Dugdale said she had applied for many work experience jobs, but failed to say whether she remembered going for one with the SNP.

 

She said: “Thirteen years ago I supposedly applied for work experience in the Scottish Parliament.

 

“I applied for lots of different work experience.

 

“I’ve never supported the SNP and have never voted for the SNP."

 

 

[Mr Rational]

It's got me thinking 'who has released it and why now?'.....

Sarwar?

[Colkitto]

Survation poll released today

 

Constituency

• SNP 52%
• Labour 21%
• Conservatives 16%
• Liberal Democrats 6%

List

• SNP 44%
• Labour 19%
• Conservatives 16%
• Greens 10%
• Liberal Democrats 6%
• Ukip 4%

[Kyle]

Takes the greens to 11 seats, only 7 behind the Tories. I hope more SNP voters go green on the list. 10% green so far, which wil do a fair bit of damage you'd imagine.

[AUFC90]

Takes the greens to 11 seats, only 7 behind the Tories. I hope more SNP voters go green on the list. 10% green so far, which wil do a fair bit of damage you'd imagine.

I'll be voting green on the list. Reckon the SNP will sweep the board in Ayrshire so makes sense.

[NotThePars]

Hope the Greens do well. A substantial opposition bloc from the left/Yes bloc will be very nice. Can just give the unionists a swift dinghy.

[Granny Danger]

Survation poll released today

 

Constituency

• SNP 52%
• Labour 21%
• Conservatives 16%
• Liberal Democrats 6%

List

• SNP 44%
• Labour 19%
• Conservatives 16%
• Greens 10%
• Liberal Democrats 6%
• Ukip 4%

If this proves to be the case I wonder if the SNP will ask themselves why there's a block of people who are switching their second vote to the Greens?

If they do I wonder what the answer will be.