AsimButtHitsASix Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 I'd expect Greens to go up in the next year and Lib Dem to go down. Lib Dem are fucked in general and will be putting all their power into the seats they've lost in the South over the next five years I'd fancy. Surely they'll be campaigning in teuchterville, where they have seats to save or regain, up here? Greens, mostly, stayed away from the GE this year and did little campaigning whereas were a pretty vocal group in the referendum. With them aiming for the PR vote they'll have a very directed campaign for that vote.. Also the Green Party down here are a bit of a shambles most of the time. People will be equating their nonsensical ramblings and stupid Aussie accents with Scottish Greens at the moment. 12 months of Patrick Harvie's shiny coupon will sort that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Seats projection... early days but it can only get better. Cue the whining about the SSP not getting a wee circle. (FWIW I reckon they'll grab a seat or two again this time.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Cue the whining about the SSP not getting a wee circle. (FWIW I reckon they'll grab a seat or two again this time.) During the GE campaign, when the nationwide polls came out, the only show in town didn't get a mention but the busted flush party did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I'd expect Greens to go up in the next year and Lib Dem to go down. Lib Dem are fucked in general and will be putting all their power into the seats they've lost in the South over the next five years I'd fancy. Surely they'll be campaigning in teuchterville, where they have seats to save or regain, up here? Greens, mostly, stayed away from the GE this year and did little campaigning whereas were a pretty vocal group in the referendum. With them aiming for the PR vote they'll have a very directed campaign for that vote.. Also the Green Party down here are a bit of a shambles most of the time. People will be equating their nonsensical ramblings and stupid Aussie accents with Scottish Greens at the moment. 12 months of Patrick Harvie's shiny coupon will sort that out. The Lib Dems are already down to five MSPs. I think they might actually gain one or two or just stay the same, can't really get much worse Cue the whining about the SSP not getting a wee circle. (FWIW I reckon they'll grab a seat or two again this time.) Where do you fancy them to pick up? The main reason that the SNP were the largest party in 2007 was a convergence of the leftist vote with the SSP/Solidarity collapse and the Greens losing several seats, and the Socialists have never managed to recover that. Unless they sort out their differences with Solidarity then I can't see them winning anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 The SSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Hopefully the Scottish Conservatives continue to increase our vote here - as we did between 2010 and 2015. If we do I think there's a genuine chance we can be the second party next year, especially if Scottish Labour continues in it's current state. Great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Hopefully the Scottish Conservatives continue to increase our vote here - as we did between 2010 and 2015. If we do I think there's a genuine chance we can be the second party next year, especially if Scottish Labour continues in it's current state. Great news Scottish tories vote dropped by 1.8% between 2010 and 2015. They also lost votes between the 2007 and 2011 HR elections. 2007 - 16.6% 2011 - 13.9% 2010 - 16.7% 2015 - 14.9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Scottish tories vote dropped by 1.8% between 2010 and 2015. They also lost votes between the 2007 and 2011 HR elections. 2007 - 16.6% 2011 - 13.9% 2010 - 16.7% 2015 - 14.9% The Tory vote is just slowly dying out, IMO. I don't think they're actually losing supporters, just dying at a higher rate than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Scottish tories vote dropped by 1.8% between 2010 and 2015. They also lost votes between the 2007 and 2011 HR elections. 2007 - 16.6% 2011 - 13.9% 2010 - 16.7% 2015 - 14.9% Lex still thinks that St. Mirren will finish at least 8th in the Premier league this yr. Take what he says with pinch of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 The Tory vote is just slowly dying out, IMO. I don't think they're actually losing supporters, just dying at a higher rate than the others.But in terms of numbers, which is more relevant than % in your argument, the Tory vote in Scotland went up at this election compared to last and at last years EU elections, we recorded our highest ever number of votes in an EU election.But we do have absolutely no chance of coming 2nd in next years parliament elections. I'd imagine we'll end up third again, ahead of the Greens and then Lib Dems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Scottish tories vote dropped by 1.8% between 2010 and 2015. They also lost votes between the 2007 and 2011 HR elections. 2007 - 16.6% 2011 - 13.9% 2010 - 16.7% 2015 - 14.9% The Tory vote in Scotland went up around 20,000 between 2010 and 2015. Eta exact figures: 412,855 in 2010 to 434,097 in 2015. Excellent stuff, and a lot of Tories (like myself) didn't vote for them due to tactical reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 But we do have absolutely no chance of coming 2nd in next years parliament elections. I'd imagine we'll end up third again, ahead of the Greens and then Lib Dems. I wouldn't say we have absolutely no chance at all. I think you're underestimating the mess Scottish Labour is in. Unlike them, we are a party on the up and we have a strong leader who has almost universal backing from the party. The forecast has us just 13 seats behind Labour at the minute. If current trajectories continue that gap will have closed yet further by next May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Lex still thinks that St. Mirren will finish at least 8th in the Premier league this yr. Take what he says with pinch of salt. We won't go into your predictions from September pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 The Tory vote in Scotland went up around 20,000 between 2010 and 2015. Fair enough. It's debatable whether absolute numbers or vote share are more important when looking at these things though. There's little point in increasing the overall number when your opponents are increasing theirs by a larger amount. The Tory vote has been incredibly static for a while now. I wouldn't be expecting any significant increases or decreases. I doubt the Tories will nip ahead of Labour in either the popular vote or seat numbers in 2016. I think they'll finish a comfortable 3rd and close the gap on Labour a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Fair enough. It's debatable whether absolute numbers or vote share are more important when looking at these things though. There's little point in increasing the overall number when your opponents are increasing theirs by a larger amount. The Tory vote has been incredibly static for a while now. I wouldn't be expecting any significant increases or decreases. I doubt the Tories will nip ahead of Labour in either the popular vote or seat numbers in 2016. I think they'll finish a comfortable 3rd and close the gap on Labour a bit. Well the point is our opponents for Scotland's second party weren't increasing their vote. Lib Dems went from 465,000 in 2010 to 219,000 in 2015. Scottish Labour went from over a million in 2010 to 700,000 in 2015. They were both decimated while our vote not only held, but actually increased. They're on a downward spiral and we are on the up. I believe given the state of Lib and Lab that the Scottish Conservatives are the only party that can provide a credible opposition to the SNP in the next Holyrood parliament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Well the point is our opponents for Scotland's second party weren't increasing their vote. Lib Dems went from 465,000 in 2010 to 219,000 in 2015. Scottish Labour went from over a million in 2010 to 700,000 in 2015. They were both decimated while our vote not only held, but actually increased. They're on a downward spiral and we are on the up. I believe given the state of Lib and Lab that the Scottish Conservatives are the only party that can provide a credible opposition to the SNP in the next Holyrood parliament. Fair enough if that's what you think. I don't think an increase of 20,000 voters really tallies with being 'on the up' in a significant or wider sense. we'll see I suppose. Realistically, the Tories would have to hope for another massive gain for the SNP and a big Green increase and be the only one of the other 3 to hold up against that, to come 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakedee Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 The Tory vote in Scotland went up around 20,000 between 2010 and 2015. Eta exact figures: 412,855 in 2010 to 434,097 in 2015. Excellent stuff, and a lot of Tories (like myself) didn't vote for them due to tactical reasons. by this reasoning I would imagine some people voted Tory FOR tactical reasons, maybe more than 20k ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 But in terms of numbers, which is more relevant than % in your argument, the Tory vote in Scotland went up at this election compared to last and at last years EU elections, we recorded our highest ever number of votes in an EU election. But we do have absolutely no chance of coming 2nd in next years parliament elections. I'd imagine we'll end up third again, ahead of the Greens and then Lib Dems. Numbers isn't more relevant than percentage, especially when you take into account that we're sitting on an all time high of population and voter engagement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Numbers isn't more relevant than percentage, especially when you take into account that we're sitting on an all time high of population and voter engagement. It is when you're talking about Tory voters literally dying off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 It is when you're talking about Tory voters literally dying off. So if yous lose 3 points by the next election but the numbers go up, that's a good thing ? I wouldn't say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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