Elixir Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I'm shocked at this news http://m.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-did-not-scare-off-investors-1-3829114 The figures indicate Scotlands raised international profile was a key factor in attracting inward investment across a range of priority sectors including financial and business services, energy, food and drink, and life sciences. So much for that "UK influence on the world stage" being crucial for Scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Can believe that. I spend quite a bit of time in Japan and China through work and it used to be a major struggle to explain the concept of some people from the UK being British but not English. No problem in recent years because of the referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Don't tell the Britnats that. They're fine with us being a wee subservient diddy region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 There is no doubt that pre-referendum the Yes vote went up, starting around 25-30% and ending up on 45%. If you mean, however, why did the final polls all tend to over-estimate the final Yes vote by 2-3%, then there are many reasons - the usual +/-3 point random variation doesn't totally apply since you'd expect to see some guys on the bottom end of that and everyone seemed to systematically veer towards the top end of that distribution (assuming the 45% was real and the middle). One of the major issues the firms had was the lack of any calibrating bench mark - as a one off, or at least first off, how could they? So that could conceivably count for the offset seen in the polls. All new polls on the subject are weighted by recalled referendum vote, thus able to track previous voting behaviour. This means these polls take into account the actual result, rather than simply floating. All the polling data since then using this method has shown an uptick in the Yes vote by 3 points. The few polls post referendum that didn't use this weighting procedure actually showed Yes level, or in front - so it is having an effect. It is likely then, given the new weighting procedure and the repetition in the numbers across these polls (and different companies) that the uptick from September is real, and that while still behind, has made some kind of inroad into No's winning margin. Come on.. You're better than that. You cant claim 25-30% has gone up to 45% as the earlier polls excluded don't knows. The final one obviously didnt. Support definitely increased but in single figure terms . Not that it matters really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Come on.. You're better than that. You cant claim 25-30% has gone up to 45% as the earlier polls excluded don't knows. The final one obviously didnt. Support definitely increased but in single figure terms . Not that it matters really. Not really, there were early polls from the likes of Ipsos and YG that showed a near two thirds majority with dks excluded. Besides, you have a poll with tonnes of dks - they have to jump one way or the other come the day, so it's not wrong to say even with dks included that a vote for Indy increased by that much. it depends also on who which pollster you look at -PB that hardly moved in the entire campaign or the likes of YG and TNS that showed big swings to Yes late on (or ICM that showed relatively big incremental changes over the course of a year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Not really, there were early polls from the likes of Ipsos and YG that showed a near two thirds majority with dks excluded. Yeah? I see we've now moved from 25-30 to nearly 33% (but higher). In 2011 there was actually a poll with Yes winning. Any more advances? Let's look shall we at the 2012/13 polling with DK excluded :- http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-agree-that-scotland-should-be-an-independent-country-1#bar As I said, you got a bit carried away with your claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Actually no. I recall Unionists posting with glee about 25% figures. But there's no point in discussing it with a constant victim of terrible amnesia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 I like this new chap XBL. He's a good lad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 So HB wants us to believe that support for independence hasn't vastly increased in the last 2 years ? I think I'll stick with him being a Busted Flush, thanks all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Actually no. I recall Unionists posting with glee about 25% figures. But there's no point in discussing it with a constant victim of terrible amnesia. No you dont. You've just made that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 So HB wants us to believe that support for independence hasn't vastly increased in the last 2 years ? I think I'll stick with him being a Busted Flush, thanks all the same. Trying to reassert your authority to reclaim the Thickest Nat crown oaksoft is cruelly depriving you of ? Best of British to you. You can do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Yeah? I see we've now moved from 25-30 to nearly 33% (but higher). In 2011 there was actually a poll with Yes winning. Any more advances? Let's look shall we at the 2012/13 polling with DK excluded :- http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-agree-that-scotland-should-be-an-independent-country-1#bar As I said, you got a bit carried away with your claims. Not really, no, they still had to convince those dks all the same. Also, that 25% came from Curtis' SSAS in 2012, in 2014 - asking the same questions and same methodology, so directly comparable: he got 43% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 33% of eligible voters voted YES at the referendum, with a lot of luck they could reach 40% if there ever is another referendum in our lifetime. A lot of luck. Worth noting that by the same metric No voters accounted for 45% of the eligible population, so if yes did reach 40% on the same turnout, they'd win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 But there's no point in discussing it with a constant victim of terrible amnesia. No you dont. You've just made that up.Ho hum.Ah, I've worked out why you are telling your usual lies, the thread from back then has been deleted. We of course know the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/24/scots-cold-feet-independence "First off, the headline: just 23% now say that "Scotland should become separate, independent from the rest of the UK"" Literally never happened, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Just to check, and I want you to make a very clear and unambigious statement on this, when the papers went into meltdown with "Independence support falls to 23%" headlines, you are firstly saying that this never happened? And secondly, and most importantly, since we have already proven that you are speaking bollocks on the first point, can you clearly and unambigiously state that not a single poster on here gleefully posted the headlines and claimed that independence support was at 23%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Not really, no, they still had to convince those dks all the same. Also, that 25% came from Curtis' SSAS in 2012, in 2014 - asking the same questions and same methodology, so directly comparable: he got 43% Right.. so if we are just pretending dont knows dont count then isnt it remarkable rejection of secession did so brilliantly in rising from 30 to 35 % way up to 56!! Extraordinary surge in support im sure youll agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Ho hum. Ah, I've worked out why you are telling your usual lies, the thread from back then has been deleted. We of course know the truth. Ah.. I was expecting `I could prove it I just dont wanna` The old claim the thread has been deleted line was my second guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Oh and it's newspaper headlines which count now is it? Not actual data. Good oh. In which case how did Yes manage to engineer such a drastic loss of support from 2012 to 2014?? http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/298664/Poll-Now-51-back-independence Paper headline!!! Yes at 51%!!! `A clear majority of people in Scotland now back Independence` Where did it all go wrong ? Why did support for Yes decline so horribly from 2012 to 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Ah.. I was expecting `I could prove it I just dont wanna` The old claim the thread has been deleted line was my second guess. Thats because, as you know, it has. Plenty of weaseling nonetheless from you though. I note you couldnt give a clear statement. Would you like another go?Are you claiming the thread from the time of those 23% headlines was NOT deleted? Thats another BIG statement from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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