Ad Lib Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 David Torrance seems obsessed with banging the drum about Sturgeon being desperate for a second independence referendum. It comes across as banging the drum of the Unionist parties as though her talk of "highly likely" referendums meant it was her first resort or that she's not serious about attempting alternatives that might not give rise to a pre-Brexit referendum. That rhetoric always seemed to me to be more a statement of party management and of attempted foresight of what may eventually unfold rather than a clear commitment. Her emphasis on single market participation seems to me to prove precisely the opposite of all this drum banging. The last thing she wants is a referendum before both the terms of a Brexit deal are finalised and the potential status of Scotland is clarified, because she knows she'll lose any referendum held on those terms and that it would do substantial damage to her, her government (and its legislative agenda), and the independence cause. All of this points to a referendum being held no earlier than 2020 and probably not until the next Holyrood elections. This is before we consider that the invocation of Article 50 may drift even later, and that the Brexit window may be extended or even transitional provisions put in place of it when it expires during which time Scotland's position might be clarified. It seems inconceivable that those aspects can't have been in her mind when she indicated a preference for a referendum before the formal date of secession of the UK from the EU. But still, Torrance has his contacts and off the record statements by politicians so Sturgeon must be flip flopping... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 21, 2016 Author Share Posted September 21, 2016 18 hours ago, Ad Lib said: David Torrance seems obsessed with banging the drum about Sturgeon being desperate for a second independence referendum. It comes across as banging the drum of the Unionist parties as though her talk of "highly likely" referendums meant it was her first resort or that she's not serious about attempting alternatives that might not give rise to a pre-Brexit referendum. That rhetoric always seemed to me to be more a statement of party management and of attempted foresight of what may eventually unfold rather than a clear commitment. Her emphasis on single market participation seems to me to prove precisely the opposite of all this drum banging. The last thing she wants is a referendum before both the terms of a Brexit deal are finalised and the potential status of Scotland is clarified, because she knows she'll lose any referendum held on those terms and that it would do substantial damage to her, her government (and its legislative agenda), and the independence cause. All of this points to a referendum being held no earlier than 2020 and probably not until the next Holyrood elections. This is before we consider that the invocation of Article 50 may drift even later, and that the Brexit window may be extended or even transitional provisions put in place of it when it expires during which time Scotland's position might be clarified. It seems inconceivable that those aspects can't have been in her mind when she indicated a preference for a referendum before the formal date of secession of the UK from the EU. But still, Torrance has his contacts and off the record statements by politicians so Sturgeon must be flip flopping... If there is a strict 2 year negotiation period to leave the EU then that would take us up to 2019 as May will almost certainly invoke article 50 early next year. I would say it's very likely we would have indyref2 in the Autumn of 2018 or Spring 2019. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 23 minutes ago, Colkitto said: If there is a strict 2 year negotiation period to leave the EU then that would take us up to 2019 as May will almost certainly invoke article 50 early next year. I would say it's very likely we would have indyref2 in the Autumn of 2018 or Spring 2019. I'd probably agree but I'm not convinced that the polls will say it's a good idea until after Brexit has been completed and any negative effects are there for all to see. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 21, 2016 Author Share Posted September 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, ayrmad said: I'd probably agree but I'm not convinced that the polls will say it's a good idea until after Brexit has been completed and any negative effects are there for all to see. I would say Brexit negotiations would be completed early 2019. By Autumn 2018 Spring 2019 we will know most if not all details. The EU wants the UK out as soon as possible. Can't see them extending the 2 year period 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 Just now, Colkitto said: I would say Brexit negotiations would be completed early 2019. By Autumn 2018 Spring 2019 we will know most if not all details. The EU wants the UK out as soon as possible. Can't see them extending the 2 year period I'm not suggesting that the 2 year period will be extended but I'm not convinced that the general public will fully appreciate what Brexit means until they start to live it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 21, 2016 Author Share Posted September 21, 2016 20 minutes ago, ayrmad said: I'm not suggesting that the 2 year period will be extended but I'm not convinced that the general public will fully appreciate what Brexit means until they start to live it. Yes, you have a point. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 1 hour ago, ayrmad said: I'm not suggesting that the 2 year period will be extended but I'm not convinced that the general public will fully appreciate what Brexit means until they start to live it. This is why it's funny to have people like thepundit shooting down any talk of a referendum win in the future based on the polls right now. Nothing has actually changed. We voted for Brexit but we haven't even begun to consider what it means. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 On 9/20/2016 at 07:25, The Chlamydia Kid said: Some lefty you are when access to a free market economy seems to be the most important driver in any political decision that should be made. Perhaps we should just let corporations make our political decisions instead of elected MPs.. When the free market economy within the EU is tied to free movement of labour then it's obvious that a lefty will support that ahead of jabbering about closing the borders. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 24, 2016 Author Share Posted September 24, 2016 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hehawhehaw Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 When will sturgeon call this. I'll bet there are some of the separatist natzi party members on here who know the private polls are showing they have no chance. Hurry up wee burnie, I might be dead by the time you stop threatening this bullshit to keep the borg happy. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 separatist natzi wee burnie Keeping the debate honest. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Keeping the debate honest. Don't feed the troll 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Indy is dead for a decade and maybe for longer. Hints about it will be required to keep the masses on board in expectation of the great day.Any day now, any day now.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 17 minutes ago, Loondave1 said: Indy is dead for a decade and maybe for longer. Hints about it will be required to keep the masses on board in expectation of the great day.Any day now, any day now.... Hope springs eternal that regionalism will once more reign supreme, as Scotland embraces being a minor part of the UK and forgets all that nonsense about statehood and actually mattering. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Hope springs eternal that regionalism will once more reign supreme, as Scotland embraces being a minor part of the UK and forgets all that nonsense about statehood and actually mattering. Does Nippy pull a string on your chest and you shout out catchphrases ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 That nickname is borderline sexist. Would you give it to Salmond who was basically the same as a leader? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 That nickname is borderline sexist. Would you give it to Salmond who was basically the same as a leader? Naw he was more windy than nippy to be honest. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 The more hatred there is for a party leader, the better the job they're doing. For example, Kezia Dugdale doesn't inspire hatred, mostly amusement and maybe a bit of a sympathy. The attitude towards Willie Rennie is a bit like the attitude towards a toddler who runs into a room with his trousers round his ankles, shite all over himself and a stupid grin on his face. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 55 minutes ago, Randy Giles said: That nickname is borderline sexist. Would you give it to Salmond who was basically the same as a leader? Aye. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Alex was fat as well so maybe "Fatty" rather than "Windy".Not sure. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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