Weekend 11/9-14/9

[venga1]

I think the best bets in Scotland this weekend may involve 2 teams flying high and scoring goals for fun.

Rangers to score over 2.5 goals v Livingston at 5/6 – I am probably being conservative here and could easily go over 3.5 at a better price. The stats this season speak for themselves here; Rangers have netted 3+ in 7/9, the exceptions being Hibs at home and Ayr away when they fielded a near second string side. They have scored 5 times in their last 3 games and 4 in total plus 6 in 1 game. Livingston are arguably the poorest team in the league and shipped 4 at home to Morton last week. This price has been cut already but is available still at 8/11 whic h is more than fair.

Dunfermline v Ayr – match win 8/13 – I would have this at 4/9 so there is value in just the straight win. Especially when you consider that Dunfermline were terrible last season and beat Ayr 4/4. However the stand out price could be 17/10 on over 2.5 Pars goals. Again just a quick scan of the stats should be enough to see the huge value here; they have netted 3+ times in 8/9 games including at home to SPL side, Dundee and twice away to Forfar who I probably regard as the second best side in the league; in fact for anyone needing any more persuasion, watch the highlights of this game – Dunfermline looked superb going forward and could have scored 6 or 7 easily. Their attacking options of Cardle, Paton, el Bakhtaiou and Moffat with Wallace on the bench have also now been supplemented by Antoine-Curier. Ayr have conceded in all bar one of their games including 3 times at Cliftonhill. Ayr have supposedly improved this term and on paper they certainly should have given the signings made from the likes of Brechin and Airdrie not to mention the loans of Moore and Preston.. However, having seen them against Stranraer I wasn’t at all impressed and while results have generally been good and they may well make the top 4, Dunfermline away is a huge step up and test and one they are likely to fail.

Best of the rest:

It may pay to support against struggling and still winless sides such as Kilmarnock (Dundee United 10/11 at home), Brechin (Forfar 11/10 away) and Arbroath (East Fife 3/4 at home) while I expect Queens Park (8/11) to record their first home win v East Stirling.

Not much justification needed for these ones though East Fife have been especially strong at home, not just in the league but in the Cups against higher level opposition while Queens Park produced good wins versus Dumbarton and at Clyde and Arbroath and last week at Berwick refereeing decisions cost them in a game they were apparently the better side in despite being down to 10 men for the majority; Shire have shipped 12 goals in their 3 away matches to date. Kilmarnock have been spectacularly bad of course and while McNamara is also under pressure, United have better players and are at home. As eluded to last week, Brechin have not recovered from the summer upheaval yet and although the score line was only 1-0 last week, in truth they were well beaten – although this is a derby and Forfar may still be missing a few important players, they should have too much even on the road.

Possible value at longer odds:

Ross County 7/4 at Motherwell – County have been one of the most impressive sides in the SPL to date from what I have seen briefly.

Dumbarton 5/2 at Morton – after a cracking start beating both Hibs and St Mirren, Dumbarton have had a poor run though knowing Aitken well, I would expect him to get a reaction here at a ground they won at very comfortably earlier in the season

Annan 12/5 at Clyde - in spite of back to back wins, I still feel Clyde are over rated by the bookies each week based on names only – Annan are a very decent side at this level though probably significantly better at home.

England:

There is nothing that really catches my eye in the Premiership so straight to the Championship.....

Having fancied Derby for a strong showing prior to the start of the season (just behind Middlesbrough), I have actually avoided them on the basis of early displays at Bolton and Portsmouth in the league cup. I also saw them beaten at home by Leeds recently and they simply do not seem to have clicked at all or settled under their new managers methods. However, they spent another 10m on deadline day on 2 very good signings for this level, especially Bradley Johnson who was a big factor in Norwich promotion run last term. Derby have quality for the Championship all over the park and will turn the corner sooner rather than later. I think that at 9/5 they are worth chancing at Preston. 20/21 draw no bet also offers a safety net.

The stand out price in the Championship is probably Charlton at 21/10 at home to struggling Rotherham. Surely Charlton should be odds on given the respective starts? Charlton have beaten both QPR and Hull at home and only lost their unbeaten record by virtue of a 2^nd half comeback by Wolves, who I expect to make the top 6, last time out.

[Deeboy]

Celtic to beat Aberdeen 20/23. They're the best team in the league by some distance, the odds are too good to turn down.

Ross County at Motherwell 17/10. This is more in hope tbh, I reckon Dundee will win away at Partick and County winning would give us a bit of space over Motherwell, it'll keep County above us, but we're still to meet.

Hearts to beat ICT 6/4. Haven't been impressed with either side at Dens, but Hearts at least had someone taking their chances. Mubtumbo to kill somecunt in the stand.

Morecambe to beat Newport 15/8. This is crazy. Newport have played 6, lost 5, drawn 1. They're fucking repugnant, led by Terry Butcher.

£10 pays £362.

[Broony88]

Celtic may win but those odds are brutal.

[Lyle Lanley]

Celtic to beat Aberdeen 20/23. They're the best team in the league by some distance, the odds are too good to turn down.

Ross County at Motherwell 17/10. This is more in hope tbh, I reckon Dundee will win away at Partick and County winning would give us a bit of space over Motherwell, it'll keep County above us, but we're still to meet.

Hearts to beat ICT 6/4. Haven't been impressed with either side at Dens, but Hearts at least had someone taking their chances. Mubtumbo to kill somecunt in the stand.

Morecambe to beat Newport 15/8. This is crazy. Newport have played 6, lost 5, drawn 1. They're fucking repugnant, led by Terry Butcher.

£10 pays £362.

Fancy the Dons to sneak a win here.

[Deeboy]

Celtic may win but those odds are brutal.

What odds would you expect the best team in the country, by some distance, to be at?

[Broony88]

What odds would you expect the best team in the country, by some distance, to be at?

So far this season they have not proven to me they are the best in the country by some distance. I fancy Aberdeen at the weekend due to where the game is being played and also most of celtics squad have been involved in two internationals the last week while the majority of Aberdeen players have had their feet up and preparing

For the game.

[CM.]

Would agree strongly on the Charlton, Morecambe and East Fife reasoning from the OP and think all will win at what are very good prices.

My tuppence worth

Wolves are 6/4 away to Bolton. Appreciate no game in the Championship is easy especially away from home but I like what I see here. Bolton are garbage and have scored one goal all season whereas Wolves have plenty of attacking options and goals in them. I believe Dicko is injured but even without him they still look dangerous.

Leyton Orient (6/5 at Cambridge). 2 defeats in a row and whilst their last outing at Exeter was a shocker I'm keeping the faith in them here. Their squad is very strong and I think they'll win the league or at the very worst finish in an automatic promotion spot. Cambridge have lost their last 3 home games and have scored one goal in their last 4 (a set peice).

[gameofthrones]

to beat Newport 15/8. This is crazy. Newport have played 6, lost 5, drawn 1. They're fucking repugnant, led by Terry Butcher.

Leyton Orient (6/5 at Cambridge). 2 defeats in a row and whilst their last outing at Exeter was a shocker I'm keeping the faith in them here. Their squad is very strong and I think they'll win the league or at the very worst finish in an automatic promotion spot. Cambridge have lost their last 3 home games and have scored one goal in their last 4 (a set peice).

Both these teams merit single bets but especially Morecambe as Newport are 'down to bare bones' according to bbc (always to be taken with a pinch of salt) http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/34167266

[Karpaty]

Went for Rangers to win and over 3.5 goals, Dunfermline -1 and Forfar treble at 8/1.

[Guest bernardblack]

Great posts in this thread so far. Will be jumping on Morecambe now as that price won't last.

Wolves are also a great shout.

Stoke at 10/1 away to Arsenal is far too large.

[BaSeDG0DSA1NT]

From OP I agree with all however I reckon Morton will not lose to Dumbarton at home.

[Fraser Fyvie]

Atletico Madrid are a great bet at 23/10 at home to Barcelona on Saturday. Messi & Mascherano only start training on Friday after the international break, Pique, Alves and Claudio Bravo will miss the game through injury/suspension and Barca haven't started the season too well with scrappy 1-0 wins. I'd probably have Atleti slight favourites.

[BinoBalls]

As well as being at the bottom of the league with 1 point, Arbroath have made a habit of conceding early goals this season:

Home v Clyde -- 9 mins

Away v Berwick -- 3 mins

Home v Queen's Park -- 4 mins

Away v Arbroath -- 20 mins

Home v Elgin -- 4 mins

Home v Dunfermline (cup) -- 9 mins

On Saturday they travel to East Fife who have hit 7 goals in 2 home league games so far. William Hills offer 3/1 East Fife score in the first 15 mins, or my slightly more conservative bet is East Fife to score up to and including the 30th minute @ 5/4.

[Marshmallo]

I don't have time for a long post this week but I have 15 singles I've just put on of varying stakes. Decimal odds cause I don't have the fractions to hand. In order from biggest stake to smallest stake.

Dortmund away to Hannover at 1.50

East Fife at home to Arbroath at 1.75

Dundee away to Partick Thistle at 2.90

Forfar away to Brechin at 2.00

Hearts away to ICT at 2.50

Ross County away to Motherwell at 2.70

Rangers -3 at home to Livi at 3.10

Hertha Berlin at home to Stuttgart at 2.55

Hamilton away to St Johnstone at 3.50

Peterhead away to Cowdenbeath at 2.40

Annan away to Clyde at 3.60

Aberdeen at home to Celtic at 4.33

Rangers -4 at home to Livingston at 5.50

Tavernier anytime at 3.00

Halliday anytime at 6.00

[The Minertaur]

I don't have time for a long post this week but I have 15 singles I've just put on of varying stakes. Decimal odds cause I don't have the fractions to hand. In order from biggest stake to smallest stake.

Dortmund away to Hannover at 1.50

East Fife at home to Arbroath at 1.75

Dundee away to Partick Thistle at 2.90

Forfar away to Brechin at 2.00

Hearts away to ICT at 2.50

Ross County away to Motherwell at 2.70

Rangers -3 at home to Livi at 3.10

Hertha Berlin at home to Stuttgart at 2.55

Hamilton away to St Johnstone at 3.50

Peterhead away to Cowdenbeath at 2.40

Annan away to Clyde at 3.60

Aberdeen at home to Celtic at 4.33

Rangers -4 at home to Livingston at 5.50

Tavernier anytime at 3.00

Halliday anytime at 6.00

Good shouts. Just put them on myself. Thanks.

[GeeJay]

Only a matter of time before Oduwa and Zelalem start scoring for Rangers. 15/8 and 17/5 respectively.

[Fraser Fyvie]

Surely 2/1 is a bit short for Tavernier now? Not sure I could back that for any defender.

[CM.]

Surely 2/1 is a bit short for Tavernier now? Not sure I could back that for any defender.

Him and Wallace are effectively wingers in that Rangers side.

Do agree to an extent though. No doubt at 2/1 folk will be piling higher stakes on and his goalscoring run will end.

[Marshmallo]

Surely 2/1 is a bit short for Tavernier now? Not sure I could back that for any defender.

Is it not 6 goals in 8 games?

[Fraser Fyvie]

Is it not 6 goals in 8 games?

Something like that. He's not going to score an average of 6 in 8 in the long-term across the whole season though that's for sure. Though you'd expect Rangers to score at least 3 or 4 so you may be right.