StewartyMac Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 I think he'll win either the Australian Open or the US Open this year, possibly both. He's not nearly good enough on clay, and both Federer and Nadal are still a bit ahead of him on grass. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 I think he'll win either the Australian Open or the US Open this year, possibly both. He's not nearly good enough on clay, and both Federer and Nadal are still a bit ahead of him on grass. He'll be doing well to reach the last eight at the French really. Be interesting to see how far he can get in clay tournaments now. His game has clearly moved up a level so he should be able to do better than last year but still luck of the draw could easily get him a clay specialist early rounds in many tournaments. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogma Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 He'll be doing well to reach the last eight at the French really. Be interesting to see how far he can get in clay tournaments now. His game has clearly moved up a level so he should be able to do better than last year but still luck of the draw could easily get him a clay specialist early rounds in many tournaments. Stand to be correct on this but i am sure that 2 or 3 years ago Murray though that clay would be his best surface due to have worked on clay so much when he was in Barcelona. Be interesting to see how he develops on clay. That said, he would need to improve a hell of a lot on it to be able to compete with Nadal on clay. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Points since beginning of U.S. Open 1) Murray 4,000 pts 2) Federer 3,490 pts 3) Djorkovic 2,740 pts 4) Nadal 1,600 pts Interesting. Obviously Nadal will pick up a lot over the clay court season but if Murray can do better than him at the Aussie and Wimbledon and achieve similar results to Federer he could quite easily be number one going in to the U.S. I know that's a lot to achieve and holding on to that position would be difficult, but it's great that we look like having a sustained period of good quality competition at the top after such long spells of Sampras and Federer dominance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) Something I only found out recently is that there has been a major restructuring of the points used in the rankings for this year. All Grand Slams and Masters Series will be played for double points this year (2000 and 1000 respectively for the winners of each), whereas there are now only two other category of ATP Tour event, a 500 and a 250 one. The interesting part is that they doubled everyone's points tally at the end of 2008, so that Djokovic is now around 3000 ahead of Murray, rather than 1500. I'm not sure what this'll mean in regard to how many points fall off from last year's events. We'll find out this week, as the points from last year's Australian Open will fall off (it's currently staggered, and will fall back into alignment when the Open finishes), which obviously means the biggest hit will be Djokovic. I'd assume as he only got 1000 for winning it last year, that only 1000 will come off, which seems a tad unfair after everyone has had their points doubled at the start of the year. In theory then, unless I've misunderstood the maths from this, should Djokovic win it again, he'd still have a net gain of 1000 rather than 0, and if, say, Murray gets to the final, he'd pick up around 1400 net, as he won't lose anything this week due to his 1st round exit last year. All that meaning he would only pick up 400 points on Djokovic's current 3000 point lead, as opposed to 700 on a 1500 lead which it would have been had the base points not been doubled and the points for a 2009 slam being the same as last year. Of course, I may be missing something obvious here. Edited January 13, 2009 by StewartyMac 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Points since beginning of U.S. Open1) Murray 4,000 pts 2) Federer 3,490 pts 3) Djorkovic 2,740 pts 4) Nadal 1,600 pts These will likely be 'Race Points', something which runs alongside the World Ranking points system, whereby players will purely pick up points won in events, and not defend points from the year before. The points are different from world ranking points as well. It's highly unlikely he'll be world ranked number 1 at the time of the US Open, although it's quite conceivable he'll be winning the 'Race Points' championship by then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Something I only found out recently is that there has been a major restructuring of the points used in the rankings for this year. All Grand Slams and Masters Series will be played for double points this year (2000 and 1000 respectively for the winners of each), whereas there are now only two other category of ATP Tour event, a 500 and a 250 one. The interesting part is that they doubled everyone's points tally at the end of 2008, so that Djokovic is now around 3000 ahead of Murray, rather than 1500. I'm not sure what this'll mean in regard to how many points fall off from last year's events. We'll find out this week, as the points from last year's Australian Open will fall off (it's currently staggered, and will fall back into alignment when the Open finishes), which obviously means the biggest hit will be Djokovic. I'd assume as he only got 1000 for winning it last year, that only 1000 will come off, which seems a tad unfair after everyone has had their points doubled at the start of the year. In theory then, unless I've misunderstood the maths from this, should Djokovic win it again, he'd still have a net gain of 1000 rather than 0, and if, say, Murray gets to the final, he'd pick up around 1400 net, as he won't lose anything this week due to his 1st round exit last year. All that meaning he would only pick up 400 points on Djokovic's current 3000 point lead, as opposed to 700 on a 1500 lead which it would have been had the base points not been doubled and the points for a 2009 slam being the same as last year. Of course, I may be missing something obvious here. Er yes, very obvious. All they did was recalculate all last year's points based on this year's system. Djokovic is carrying 2,000 points from last years Aussie Open and will drop them on 2nd February. If he wins then he'll only get the same points he had. All the points and their make up are available on the ATPTour website. Djokovic's are Here 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 These will likely be 'Race Points', something which runs alongside the World Ranking points system, whereby players will purely pick up points won in events, and not defend points from the year before. The points are different from world ranking points as well. It's highly unlikely he'll be world ranked number 1 at the time of the US Open, although it's quite conceivable he'll be winning the 'Race Points' championship by then. Stewarty I may be off the mark on this one but I'm sure come the end of the year the race points standings (even if the points are different) are exactly the same as the Rankings standings since all your points are based on the last 12 months. If Murray is leading from the U.S. Open until now and gains enough race points between now and the 2009 U.S. starting to maintain his current lead from these figures, he will be number one going into the U.S. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Stewarty I may be off the mark on this one but I'm sure come the end of the year the race points standings (even if the points are different) are exactly the same as the Rankings standings since all your points are based on the last 12 months. If Murray is leading from the U.S. Open until now and gains enough race points between now and the 2009 U.S. starting to maintain his current lead from these figures, he will be number one going into the U.S. The race point standings may well be the same as what the world rankings are right now (and I believe the top six or seven are), but they're worked out differently. For a start everyone's points in the race list are reset to zero at the start of the year, whereas the rankings work on a rolling 12 month period where players have to defend the points they won the previous year. For example, if Murray wins the Australian Open, he'll be Number 1 on the race list, but can only be as high as 3 in the rankings. It would take an awful year for both Federer and Nadal for Murray to be world ranked number 1 come the US Open time. He may well be leading in the 'Race' however. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) Er yes, very obvious. All they did was recalculate all last year's points based on this year's system. Djokovic is carrying 2,000 points from last years Aussie Open and will drop them on 2nd February. If he wins then he'll only get the same points he had. I thought that was what they originally planned to do, but instead just doubled everyone's current total at the end of last year? Although looking at Djokovic's link, it would appear these points from last year are adjusted as well, which makes sense. Oh, and he'll drop the Aussie Open points at the end of this week, not 2nd Feb. Edited January 13, 2009 by StewartyMac 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 It would take an awful year for both Federer and Nadal for Murray to be world ranked number 1 come the US Open time. He may well be leading in the 'Race' however. We'll have to agree to differ on this one If Murray is winning the 2009 Race come the start of the U.S. Open, he will be World No. 1. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 We'll have to agree to differ on this one If Murray is winning the 2009 Race come the start of the U.S. Open, he will be World No. 1. You won't be told, will you? There is no guarantee if he's winning the race, he'll also be Number 1, in fact, I'd pretty much doubt it. If he wins the Aussie Open and Wimbledon, for example, and has a solid year elsewhere, he'll almost certainly be leading the race, however, if Federer and Nadal have been reaching semi finals and finals during the same period, there's no way they will have dropped enough points for Murray to be ahead of them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Actually, on further inspection, it appears there may not be a separate 'Race List' this year as there has been in other years, just the World Rankings. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Oh, and he'll drop the Aussie Open points at the end of this week, not 2nd Feb. You seem to be struggling with comprehension of a number of things today Stewart. Click that link I already posted again, take a look at Djokovic's points from the Aussie Open and then look at the next column along. I rather suspect that the ATP know better what date he drops his point from the Aussie Open. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) The race point standings may well be the same as what the world rankings are right now (and I believe the top six or seven are), but they're worked out differently. For a start everyone's points in the race list are reset to zero at the start of the year, whereas the rankings work on a rolling 12 month period where players have to defend the points they won the previous year. For example, if Murray wins the Australian Open, he'll be Number 1 on the race list, but can only be as high as 3 in the rankings. It would take an awful year for both Federer and Nadal for Murray to be world ranked number 1 come the US Open time. He may well be leading in the 'Race' however. Er no. Virtual Instanity is right. The points he's quoting are just the points they've won since the US Open (which isn't the "Race points" but that's by the by, the Race Points don't start from last year's US Open). Inherently that means that, on a one year rankings system which tennis is (unlike golf for instance), then if Murray continues to outperform the others from now until then he WILL be top come the US Open. That's a matter of fact. Of course he won't continue to do that. He certainly won't outperform Nadal on clay, though how much he loses remains to be seen. It wouldn't take an awful year for anyone for Murray to be leading. It just would take him to match what they do from now to then since he's already leading the rankings for the last three months. Edited January 13, 2009 by Skyline Drifter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 You seem to be struggling with comprehension of a number of things today Stewart. Click that link I already posted again, take a look at Djokovic's points from the Aussie Open and then look at the next column along. I rather suspect that the ATP know better what date he drops his point from the Aussie Open. Well, actually they are wrong. The calendar is staggered for the first few weeks. The points from last year's Australian Open definitely fall off the ATP computer at the end of this week. As it says here, Clicky Anyway, we'll see on Monday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 if Murray continues to outperform the others from now until then he WILL be top come the US Open. That's a matter of fact. No it isn't. Nadal has a 6,000 point lead over Murray just now. It's not just as simple as Murray outperforming him this year. It depends which tournaments each do well at. Murray could beat Nadal in every final from now to the US Open, and there's no guarantee he'd be number 1, it depends how many points Nadal drops in that time. If the points were closer right now, then yeah, maybe, and he's certainly more chance of catching Djokovic and Federer, but I'd be mightily surprised if Nadal isn't World Number 1 come US Open time. As I said earlier,it would take an horrendous year for Nadal for Murray to be ahead of him. (ie losing in the early rounds of both the French and Wimbledon) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) No it isn't. Nadal has a 6,000 point lead over Murray just now. It's not just as simple as Murray outperforming him this year. It depends which tournaments each do well at. Murray could beat Nadal in every final from now to the US Open, and there's no guarantee he'd be number 1, it depends how many points Nadal drops in that time. If the points were closer right now, then yeah, maybe, and he's certainly more chance of catching Djokovic and Federer, but I'd be mightily surprised if Nadal isn't World Number 1 come US Open time. As I said earlier,it would take an horrendous year for Nadal for Murray to be ahead of him. (ie losing in the early rounds of both the French and Wimbledon) Im sorry Stewart but that's nonsense. You clearly don't follow how the points system works. Or I don't I suppose but I think I'm right (surprisingly enough). I appreciate the players don't start from NIL and that the points they gain or lose in any given week don't necessarily mean they gain or lose relative to an opponent. Indeed Murray's tournament win last week LOST him points relative to the rest as he merely defended what he has whilst they other big two got more than they did at the same tourney last year (though I haven't checked and it may still not be in Fed or Nadal's best countable other tournaments). However what you seem to be completely missing is that rankings are a one year thing. There's no contribution of points from the prior year. If Murray beats Nadal in every counting tournament final between now and the US Open then he WILL be No 1. No ifs buts or maybes. He would be no 1 as a matter of fact and it would be physically impossible for anyone to have gotten more points in the previous 51 weeks. I'm really not sure how to try to explain this more clearly. Nadal has a 6,000 point lead now because he did better than Murray by about 9,000 points between last January and the US Open. Those points will drop off over the next eight months. IF Murray outperforms Nadal and Federer week by week from now until the beginning of the US Open he WILL be Number 1 going into it. Edited January 13, 2009 by Skyline Drifter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Well, actually they are wrong. The calendar is staggered for the first few weeks. The points from last year's Australian Open definitely fall off the ATP computer at the end of this week. As it says here, Clicky Anyway, we'll see on Monday. Well ok, I accept that's contradictory. And I also accept that it's possible either the people who fill in the atp tour rankings page aren't entirely clear on the rules and have just dropped in the date of this year's final, or that they have an auto computer process that generates the same. However, I'm not sure what grounds you have for presuming that the link to this bloke's stat page whoever he may be is more likely to be correct that the ATP's own website? Are there other sources confirming that position? As you say, we'll see over the next week or two. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Indeed Murray's tournament win last week LOST him points relative to the rest as he merely defended what he has Murray's points from Doha fell off the previous week, so he actually picked up points from his win last weekend. Of course it all evens itself out over the fortnight. If Murray beats Nadal in every counting tournament final between now and the US Open then he WILL be No 1 Well, that's moving the goalposts now. That's certainly different from merely 'outperforming him'. For example, say Murray and Nadal do exactly the same as last year up to the US Open apart from the Australian Open and Wimbledon. And say Murray wins the Australian Open and Wimbledon beating Nadal in the final each time. I would argue that Murray would have 'outperformed' Nadal over the year. However, Nadal's points going into the US Open would be 13060 (Currently 13160, but would gain 500 for reaching the Final in Australia, and lose 600 for only getting to the Final at Wimbedon), whereas Murray's would be 10680 (picking up 1990 for Australia and 1500 for Wimbledon) giving him 10680. In fact, if Murray even beat Nadal in the French Final, he'd only go about 100 ahead of him. I guess it comes down to how much he 'outperforms' him. Certainly if he gets further than Nadal in every counting tournament between now and the US Open, (and the other two as well), then of course he will be Number 1 come the US Open, that's simple common sense, as the points he would make up would supercede Nadal's dropped points. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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