Mr Bairn Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Okay so here's the deal. Let's assume for simplicity that the SNP will win every single constituency seat in the country, you're looking at needing 45-50% of the vote to even win one list MSP in each region So the absolute maximum you could conceivably get would be 81 MSPs However if you give the SNP 81 MSPs, you're looking at the majority of the other 48 being Unionists. Maybe 24 for Labour, 20 for the Tories and 1-2 each for the Libs and Greens But, say half that SNP vote transfers over to yhe Greens, the SNP don't win any list seats but the Greens would be looking at 20 seats or so from the list and probably be the second party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Most regions have 9 seats, so in each round on d'Hondt you are dividing by 10 if the SNP win all 9. You typically need over 5% to get a list seat even by the last round after the calculation has been made, so barring unusual circumstances (it helps when multiple fringe parties are getting about 3 to 4%) I think it normally takes over 50% to get a list seat if a party holds all the constituencies, because the result is already disproportional by having 9 out of 16 with around 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Exactly. Why the fuk would anyone who is a snp voter or member not vote SNP SNP. Fuk this tactical shit. Vote for who you want Plenty people have voted snp in a tactical manner to get independence. Without tactical voting the snp would not be where they are now. Many of their voters are to the left of their wishy washy policies (see council tax) and the 2nd vote is the perfect opportunity to reflect your politics (be that snp/tories, snp/greens, snp/rise or whatever other minor party you support). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Plenty people have voted snp in a tactical manner to get independence. Without tactical voting the snp would not be where they are now. Many of their voters are to the left of their wishy washy policies (see council tax) and the 2nd vote is the perfect opportunity to reflect your politics (be that snp/tories, snp/greens, snp/rise or whatever other minor party you support). I'm not sure voting SNP to get independence (or rather to show support for independence) is "tactical voting". Tactical voting is voting not for who you want to win, but to prevent your least favourite candidate winning. If you vote SNP because you support their primary objective, that's about as far from tactical voting as you can get - it's just ... voting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Okay so here's the deal. Let's assume for simplicity that the SNP will win every single constituency seat in the country, you're looking at needing 45-50% of the vote to even win one list MSP in each region So the absolute maximum you could conceivably get would be 81 MSPs However if you give the SNP 81 MSPs, you're looking at the majority of the other 48 being Unionists. Maybe 24 for Labour, 20 for the Tories and 1-2 each for the Libs and Greens But, say half that SNP vote transfers over to yhe Greens, the SNP don't win any list seats but the Greens would be looking at 20 seats or so from the list and probably be the second party What's your point? These are fantasy projections. I haven't even checked them to see if they are correct but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt despite your hilarious standard grade modern studies general election analysis. If you are an SNP member/ supporter why would you care about getting more Greens in? Especially when on those numbers you would get non Indy supporting Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 there will be anti-SNP tactical voting coming into play with websites advising No voters what to do, but it will be interesting to see how the electorate responds on this. Seemed to work well last May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lichtgilphead Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Okay so here's the deal. Let's assume for simplicity that the SNP will win every single constituency seat in the country, you're looking at needing 45-50% of the vote to even win one list MSP in each region That's your first misconception. It's highly unlikely that the SNP will win every constituency seat. Ladbrokes are currently offering 1/6 odds. Accordingly, the rest of your post is misconceived nonsense, but I'll play anyway. So the absolute maximum you could conceivably get would be 81 MSPs However if you give the SNP 81 MSPs, you're looking at the majority of the other 48 being Unionists. Maybe 24 for Labour, 20 for the Tories and 1-2 each for the Libs and Greens So, in the flawed scenario you set out, the minimum number of pro-independence MSP's is 74 (73 SNP plus 1 Green) and the maximumm number is 83 (81 SNP plus 2 Green) The total number of unionists in these two cases are 55 and 37 46. That's a comfortable majority for pro-indy MSP's. In fact, it's a comfortable majority for the SNP alone, even if the Presiding Officer comes from the SNP ranks. I would be delighted with that result. But, say half that SNP vote transfers over to yhe Greens, the SNP don't win any list seats but the Greens would be looking at 20 seats or so from the list and probably be the second party For the greens to get 20 list seats, they need to get 3 list MSP's in at least 4 of the 8 regions. To get 3 list MSP's, they need to beat both the Tories & Labour on the list, and get more than 4 times the vote of each and every one of the minor parties (Libdems, UKIP, RISE etc) This is not going to happen once, never mind 4 times out of 7. Accordingly, this makes your flawed analysis even more nonsensical. If you decide to provide more figures, at least try to make them believable. As an aside, I note that it appears that a significant percentage of Unionists on here are advocating that SNP supporters split their vote. I wonder why? Edited to correct stupid arithmetical error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Seemed to work well last May. It's what stopped the SNP romp imo ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It probably did work in two constituencies in May and there are others (Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk is the obvious prime example) where it could have worked and probably will next time if everything else stayed the same. If you need around 68 out of 73 in the constituenct section to have a reasonably stable majority, it doesn't take much for No voter tactical voting in certain targeted constituencies to make any tactical voting by SNP voters on the list a highly inadvisable strategy, if Orkney and Shetland are assumed to be wins for the Lib Dems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It probably did work in two constituencies in May and there are others (Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk is the obvious prime example) where it could have worked and probably will next time if everything else stayed the same. If you need around 68 out of 73 in the constituenct section to have a reasonably stable majority, it doesn't take much for No voter tactical voting in certain targeted constituencies to make any tactical voting by SNP voters on the list a highly inadvisable strategy, if Orkney and Shetland are assumed to be wins for the Lib Dems. So it worked in 2 constituencies (at most) but not the in the 56 won by the SNP. Overall, I'd say it didn't really work then. The SNP got a majority in 2011. I suspect they'll get a higher %age of the votes in constituency and list this time. They're going to get another majority. Nothing any unionist can do about it I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Loads of discussion about who to vote for in this "one party state" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So it worked in 2 constituencies (at most) but not the in the 56 won by the SNP. Overall, I'd say it didn't really work then. You should maybe have read the rest of the post before hitting reply. Of course it didn't work in May in the way the people who set those websites up hoped, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the point I am making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You should maybe have read the rest of the post before hitting reply. Of course it didn't work in May in the way the people who set those websites up hoped, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the point I am making. And the point is that there's a possibility of a significant and very well organised and informed unionist tactical voting strategy? I think all the evidence suggests that's extremely unlikely, to the point of being pretty laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No, that's not the point I am making. The hint on that is the phrase, "it doesn't take much". Try reading all the way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No, that's not the point I am making. The hint on that is the phrase, "it doesn't take much". Try reading all the way through. You're either making a shite point and explaining it adequately or making a decent point and explaining it shitely. I've read what you posted. The SNP are getting a majority. Nothing will stop that. Tactical voting might swing a few seats either way. It won't change the overall picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You're either making a shite point and explaining it adequately or making a decent point and explaining it shitely. I've read what you posted. The SNP are getting a majority. Nothing will stop that. Tactical voting might swing a few seats either way. It won't change the overall picture. I'm voting tactically: Constituency - SNP List - SNP My tactic is to get as many SNP MSPs as possible elected. I think it's a tactic that has a high chance of success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What's your point? These are fantasy projections. I haven't even checked them to see if they are correct but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt despite your hilarious standard grade modern studies general election analysis. If you are an SNP member/ supporter why would you care about getting more Greens in? Especially when on those numbers you would get non Indy supporting Greens. It depends on your priorities, if your priority is to maximise the SNP contingent then of course you're going to double down on them. If your priority is to minimise the Unionist contingent then tactical voting is advisable. Even if the country is split 50-50 unionist and nationalist, the Nats have to vote as a bloc. Now again for the sake of simplicity we will assume the SNP win every seat in a given region. They'd need the full 50% support to even get one MSP, whereas if they stood aside and the Greens got 50% of the vote then they'd probably get 5 MSPs, and the Unionists would be in tatters. For that same reason I often wonder if the Unionists should form a pact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm not sure voting SNP to get independence (or rather to show support for independence) is "tactical voting". Tactical voting is voting not for who you want to win, but to prevent your least favourite candidate winning. If you vote SNP because you support their primary objective, that's about as far from tactical voting as you can get - it's just ... voting. Fair point. I'm just not a huge fan of the snp but am very much supportive of independence. I therefore think tactically every election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You're either making a shite point and explaining it adequately or making a decent point and explaining it shitely. I've read what you posted. The SNP are getting a majority. Nothing will stop that. Tactical voting might swing a few seats either way. It won't change the overall picture. The other possibility is that you you have me pigeonholed as a political opponent and want to turn everything on here into yet another turgid Nationalist vs Unionist argument. My point is that tactical voting only has to swing "a few seats" against the SNP in a Holyrood context on the constituency side of things for a stable SNP majority to be dependent on getting extra list seats, which would not necessarily happen if the SNP's list vote dropped down to about 40% if a lot of voters drifted off to the Greens or maybe even RISE to try to give Labour an extra kicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It depends on your priorities, if your priority is to maximise the SNP contingent then of course you're going to double down on them. If your priority is to minimise the Unionist contingent then tactical voting is advisable. Even if the country is split 50-50 unionist and nationalist, the Nats have to vote as a bloc. Now again for the sake of simplicity we will assume the SNP win every seat in a given region. They'd need the full 50% support to even get one MSP, whereas if they stood aside and the Greens got 50% of the vote then they'd probably get 5 MSPs, and the Unionists would be in tatters. For that same reason I often wonder if the Unionists should form a pact If that's how people want their politics we are better off just having another referendum. Let's look at North East Scotland. How many SNP supporters in the north east would lend their vote to the anti fossil fuel Greens. Also, if the Greens could get two MSPs in NE that would be one unionist and one Indy supporter. For more Indy MSPs than you have in the NE at the moment you would need 4 greens. If you want the SNP to stand aside a better idea was my half joking suggestion a year ago of establishing the Independence Referendum Party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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