Suspect Device Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Strange that this thread hasn't been added to recently. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Strange that this thread hasn't been added to recently. Why? Has Sterling strengthened against anything? Most of the FTSE100 gains looks like an inflationary reaction to Sterling going down. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 This has given Osbourne the perfect excuse for not achieving his budget goals. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 A oggie short of a picnic: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killienick Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Strange that this thread hasn't been added to recently. What's your point? If you are in a investment vehicle 100% correlated to the FTSE 100 then you may have recouped you money from a crash. Bearing in mind that if a market drops 20% it then needs to grow by 25% just to stand still. However, market timing in terms of buying and selling or even taking regular withdrawals could have exponentially exacerbated the drop. However, not very many pension funds or investments will be invested 100% in FTSE trackers and therefore other markets are more relevant, (other markets haven't recovered quite so well as they aren't as weighted by capitalisation). Depending on the nature of negative correlation and diversification within each portfolio, people and businesses could, and will, still be massively affected detrimentally about this. Perhaps people are just counting the cost of the fallout? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suspect Device Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Why? Has Sterling strengthened against anything? Most of the FTSE100 gains looks like an inflationary reaction to Sterling going down. I was really talking about all the pant-wetting about short term movements. It will be a long time before we know if this is going to be good or bad for the economy. Shocks causing volatility aren't anything to base your opinions on whether we're doomed or saved by Brexit. Also, it's not just the FTSE100 that has done well this week my portfolio has various different stocks and funds and I'm doing fairly well apart from the bank stock. Only time will tell if that lasts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I was really talking about all the pant-wetting about short term movements. It will be a long time before we know if this is going to be good or bad for the economy. Shocks causing volatility aren't anything to base your opinions on whether we're doomed or saved by Brexit. Also, it's not just the FTSE100 that has done well this week my portfolio has various different stocks and funds and I'm doing fairly well apart from the bank stock. Only time will tell if that lasts. Tbf we haven't actually left the EU or even declared any intention to. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Tbf we haven't actually left the EU or even declared any intention to. Aye, but some people are perhaps thinking about possibly declaring an intention to. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 The one cast iron certainty is people will be putting off investment decisions until they know wtf is going on. That will have to have an impact on job creation depending on how long the dithering and negotiations last. And if companies decide to relocate that will be a one way street with clear hit on employment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mortar Bored Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Tbf we haven't actually left the EU or even declared any intention to. Exactly this. I suspect the rise in markets are in the main due to a settling of nerves & Cameron's refusal to invoke Article 50. For me, the downgrading from AAA rating is more worrisome, meaning that our deficit grows in real terms due to higher rates to borrow. The real hit will be in two major stages. When the UK finally invokes Artile 50, which seems unlikely until next year, if May wins the leadership, which seems likely. When we reach two year limit and no deal has been finalised- I may be wrong, but I suspect this will be the case. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killienick Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Exactly this. I suspect the rise in markets are in the main due to a settling of nerves & Cameron's refusal to invoke Article 50. For me, the downgrading from AAA rating is more worrisome, meaning that our deficit grows in real terms due to higher rates to borrow. The real hit will be in two major stages. When the UK finally invokes Artile 50, which seems unlikely until next year, if May wins the leadership, which seems likely. When we reach two year limit and no deal has been finalised- I may be wrong, but I suspect this will be the case. You, IMO, are correct. The other problem we will face is that with a weak Sterling, the BoE will be reticent to pump money into the economy as you normally would as this could devalue Sterling even further. Our economy could conceivably turn into a Germany1929 type scenario with hyperinflation for a period. This scenario is unlikely nowadays but far from impossible. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cream Cheese Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 FFS Are people honestly celebrating the upturn in the international market? If anything, it just shows how irrelevant the UK is in the scheme of things. It doesn't indicate that our own economy is in good stead. If the FTSE100 is still going strong in several months time, then the EU Commission will be under even less pressure to offer the UK a half decent deal. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mortar Bored Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 You, IMO, are correct. The other problem we will face is that with a weak Sterling, the BoE will be reticent to pump money into the economy as you normally would as this could devalue Sterling even further. Our economy could conceivably turn into a Germany1929 type scenario with hyperinflation for a period. This scenario is unlikely nowadays but far from impossible. I don't think hyper-inflation will be a result of this, I'm of the opinion that major currencies & central banks have matured enough to realise that easing by printing only ends up in a catastrophic impact on it's citizens. I don't think we will follow the Zimbabwean route and have million pound notes in circulation. But, anyone kidding themselves that Brexit has had it's impact on Forex & Shares is a fool, IMO. This will only get worse, and anyone with an index linked pension should be very, very worried now. I've got a clause to release part of my pension at any time, I'm seriously thinking about putting it into gold futures. That's something I would never have considered before. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 I don't think hyper-inflation will be a result of this, I'm of the opinion that major currencies & central banks have matured enough to realise that easing by printing only ends up in a catastrophic impact on it's citizens. I don't think we will follow the Zimbabwean route and have million pound notes in circulation. But, anyone kidding themselves that Brexit has had it's impact on Forex & Shares is a fool, IMO. This will only get worse, and anyone with an index linked pension should be very, very worried now. I've got a clause to release part of my pension at any time, I'm seriously thinking about putting it into gold futures. That's something I would never have considered before. Most likely is a drop in the interest rate to 0.25 or to 0. Can't see them going -ve with it and can't see what else the BOE will want to do as anything else will risk rocking the boat a bit more than they want to. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Panic in the London housing market according to my sources. We will see if it has any long effect 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Panic in the London housing market according to my sources. We will see if it has any long effect Worst Morrisey lyric ever. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 (edited) Panic in the London housing market according to my sources. We will see if it has any long effect To be honest, given the number of foreigners buying property in London I'm surprised a weakened £ hasn't bolstered the market. Anyone coming from outside the UK is now paying 10% less than they were last week. The only thing that would stop that from being a positive is if they felt there was another drop in value on the horizon. Edited July 1, 2016 by Ross. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 This was announced a few days ago: Brexit: Singapore bank UOB suspends London property loans TBF a drop in London property prices might not be such a bad thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cream Cheese Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 To be honest, given the number of foreigners buying property in London I'm surprised a weakened £ hasn't bolstered the market. Anyone coming from outside the UK is now paying 10% less than they were last week. The only thing that would stop that from being a positive is if they felt there was another drop in value on the horizon. With all of the news of xenophobia spreading across middle England. Would foreigners really be in any hurry to move there? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mortar Bored Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 To be honest, given the number of foreigners buying property in London I'm surprised a weakened £ hasn't bolstered the market. Anyone coming from outside the UK is now paying 10% less than they were last week. The only thing that would stop that from being a positive is if they felt there was another drop in value on the horizon. This. It's been reported here that UAE investment is increasing in housing, but the opposite in inward investment in industry. Shaky to build an economy on house prices. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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