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Black Friday - financial crash thread


ICTChris

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I used to work in the politics department of the House of Commons and the money section at RBS HQ. I am more qualified to comment on these matters than any of you.

Would you like a bun with your tea as usual sir?

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It's started!

 

The car wash up the road which was run by Polish guys has shut up shop and left.

Was open on Monday when I drove by. They did a cracking job for a reasonable price :(

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My investments are worth £34 more than they were at the start of trading on Thursday morning.

 

So the financial crash for me lasted less than a week.

 

I was down 5% on Friday morning so I'm guesing a few folk sold in a panic and lost a bit of money.

And some clever folk got some bargains.

 

That's the markets for you.

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I heard on the radio earlier in the week that the government/ civil service only have 2 trade negotiators qualified in the workings of the EU.

No wonder no plans have been put forward by either campaign or any party.

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I heard on the radio earlier in the week that the government/ civil service only have 2 trade negotiators qualified in the workings of the EU.

No wonder no plans have been put forward by either campaign or any party.

Their internal squabbling really is providing a nice smokescreen for the fact they know shit-all about how to proceed with Brexit. The UK is a maelstrom amongst shitstorms, held together only by decades of inertia and reliant on its own bloated history. It has no one leading it, no one who even seems to want to, and no one remotely capable of wading through the chest-deep faeces it has now sharted all over itself. It can only look backwards, longingly, because its future is an illusory wet daydream conjured up by the UKIP pied piper. It doesn't deserve to be a nation state, never mind an isolated nation state.

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I understand well enough how the markets work.

 

In terms of a flat FX rate, Sterling reached a 31 year low versus USD:

 

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?YA=1&C1=GBP&C2=USD&A=1&YYYY1=1953&MM1=01&DD1=01&YYYY2=2016&MM2=06&DD2=29&LANG=en

 

It's also sitting at what is it's lowest ever versus the Swiss Franc, excluding a spike in 2011 that is listed as the historic low:

 

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=CHF&YA=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1953&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=29&MM2=06&YYYY2=2016&btnOK=Go%21

 

It has also bombed in the last few days versus the Brazilian Real, roundly considered to be the worst performing currency of any major economy right now.

 

I agree that markets are not a science. I'd go much further, but given I work for an investment bank it's maybe best I don't get too cynical.

The comment about not understanding markets was not directed at you, I should have probably been clearer.

 

We both know that looking at specific x-rates pairs does not provide a true picture of the strength in currency.  USD and CHF are two of the currencies that traders turn to when they are looking for safety.  The volatility in the markets has led to both of these strengthening significantly against EUR and GBP and no doubt the SNB will, once again, be looking to intervene in the market to weaken their currency in addition to the interventions last week.

 

I wonder what you analysis would be of CHF when it was sitting at 2.45 to the pound in 2007 when I visited. Overall Sterling is still stronger now than it was in (for example) 2013.

 

Ofcourse the Markets aren't a science, otherwise you wouldn't need them, every stock and currency would have a set price on a certain date set out by the formulae.

Volatility is terrible for the market, the uncertainty just now is causing the markets to be volatile.

The point is- when the reality hits (during negotiations), the markets will react to that reality- that can only be bad in the medium term.

I don't disagree with the final point but to state that volatility is terrible is wrong.  Volatility is terrible for the city as it allows the rapid movement of wealth between assets which exposes them to the possibility of significant and rapid losses .  For the average joe in the street, volatility does not matter one iota.

 

Even my wine trader has emailed me to say to ditch european wines as the tarrifs wont make it profitable when article 50 is invoked :o

Champagne for a socialist surely? :lol:

Edited by strichener
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I've made 5% in two days on a stock that I'd bought on a limit order I had forgotten about and hadn't cancelled. :)

Doesn't really put a dint on the overall 10% reduction since last Thursday mind you. :(

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